Timothy Chen

小時候老師指派作文題目「我的收藏」，一定會有那種專寫蒐集郵票、蒐集銅板的同學。等長大一點，發現身邊的男同學開始收藏漫畫、模型 球卡，女同學開始收藏明星照片、專輯、各種顏色的文具…

再長大一點，拜網路發達所賜，更發現什麼東西都有人收藏，而我從今年10開始，也培養了一種新的收藏雅致，這個東西沒有實體，但攤開鑑賞時又蘊含了無數人的喜怒哀樂，有人因它而飛黃騰達，也有人因它而傾家蕩產。它是眾人血汗努力的結晶，它反應了貪婪與不理性的人性，它像一顆水晶球，預言了你我未來數個月將生活在好日子還是苦日子裡。它是集全球眾人之力所完成的偉大抽象畫，它就是：

2008/9/30

2008/9/31

2008/10/1

2008/10/2

2008/10/3

2008/10/6

2008/10/7

2008/10/8

2008/10/9

2008/10/10

2008/10/13

2008/10/14

2008/10/15

2008/10/16 2008/10/17

2008/10/20

2008/10/21

2008/10/22

2008/10/23

2008/10/24

2008/10/27

2008/10/28

2008/10/29

2008/10/30

2008/10/31

以上是2008歷史股災的開始，9/29這天，道瓊指數跌了777點，史上最高紀錄(但百分比不是最高)，也是從這天開始，我決定要來為歷史盡一點心力。經濟學和投資學課本的作者，歡迎直接引用！

Tags: 777, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, S&P 500, 歷史跌幅, 股災, 道瓊指數, 那斯達克, 金融海嘯

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企業巨擘的一項明顯特徵就是，他們有能力區辨「表面上看似不可能」(seemingly impossible) 和「實際上果真不可行」 (genuinely impossible) 之間的差異。 -

What Titans Can Teach Us, Harvard Business Review.

這兩三年倒是聽到很多「實際上果真不可行」的網路創業案例。2008年10月之後，市場機制讓我們看清更多事實。

看來我以後要來準備一張紙，中間劃一個大Ｔ隔開，左半邊紀錄我認為「表面上」看似不可能的想法或提案，右半邊紀錄我認為「實質上」不可能執行成功的天方夜譚。最後看看是左邊的項目移到右邊多，還是右邊的項目移到左邊多。

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很簡單：

1. 砍掉全年(季度)一半行銷預算

2.把省下一半的錢，拿去投資所有本益比低於同業與市場平均值的標的

等經濟復甦時，業外收益將好看得不得了，一舉衝高公司的財報數字，公司股價上升，投資人，高階主管和資深員工笑呵呵。

以上是剛剛洗澡時的靈感。

許多時候的，大企業行銷支出ROI還不如市場上地雷股的標的ROI…大師都說了，行銷預算有一半是註定會付諸流水的，沒有付諸流水的那些，則是相當難以估計成效。50%的平均成功率，這和猴子射飛鏢選股票實驗有什麼差別呢？

so, why marketing?

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兩週前謠言紛傳微軟將在PDC 2008公佈除了Windows 7之外的另一樣武器，雲端計算平台，在當時，有人直接猜這個平台的名稱叫做: Windows Cloud。

不過，顯然叫做Windows Cloud太直接了(其實Windows7也滿直接的)，因此，數小時前公佈正式名稱將是： Windows Azure

Azure源自於12世界的法國，是藍色、藍天的意思，Windows Azure讓我馬上聯想到Windows 98 SE開機時，朵朵雲兒在大大的視窗Logo後面飄的畫面：

Azure這個字對我來說還有一份遙遠的熟悉感。話說我們那屆師大附中的畢業舞會也叫做Moulin Azure (藍磨坊)，當年主題是仿當紅的電影Moulin Rouge (紅磨坊)，而附中的吉祥色是藍色，因此有以上的組合。

ok言歸正傳，Windows Azure到底有啥料？我直接引用另外彭老師在今早1:38的Update:

在PDC 2008第一天的Keynote中，Ray Ozzie(微軟的架構長)宣佈了微軟雲端運算服務的正式名稱─Windows Azure(視窗蔚藍)，這是一個以雲端運算為基礎的服務作業平台，其中涵蓋了.NET Service、SQL Service、SharePoint Online Service、Dynamic CRM Service和Live Service。對開發人員而言，可以透過相同的開發工具(Visual Studio)建立解決方案，然後透過Windows Azure的Portal發佈自己的解決方案，透過微軟營運的雲端運算環境對外提供服務給客戶或網際網路世界的使用者。

Windows Azure官方網站今天也正式上線：

http://www.microsoft.com/azure/

可惜背景不是我想象中那種藍…

網站開宗明義指出Windows Azure的三大特色 Choice, Low Risk, No Distractions：

Choice. Windows Azure reduces barriers to entry to creating reliable and scalable web applications because it is based on and works with familiar Microsoft technology. Windows Azure supports Microsoft Web technologies such as ASP.NET, IIS, and Visual Studio 2008, so developers can use their existing skills to efficiently create, test, deploy, manage & monetize web services. Windows Azure supports standards and protocols including SOAP, REST and XML. Windows Azure welcomes third party tools and languages such as Eclipse, Ruby, PHP, and Python.

 

Low Risk Windows Azure provides you, the developer, with a scalable platform and a rich development environment that allows you to focus on the business logic of your application without worrying about operational constraints or lock-in.

 

No Distractions. The Fabric Controller technology in Windows Azure, enables you to scale applications seamlessly, as demand rises and falls. The built-in management services give monitoring and tracing capabilities, and allow you to stay focused on what you do best—create and deliver services and applications online.

Tags: cloud computing, PDC 2008, Ray Ozzie, Windows Azure

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今天是Developer界眾所期待的年度大拜拜 - PDC 2008 (Professional Developers Conference 2008)開幕，大家知道微軟如何衝今年的報名人數嗎？答案就在兩大撇步之中：

撇步一：告訴全世界(包含媒體、部落圈)Windows 7將在PDC 2008首次公開亮相，外加與會者能帶走第一手Beta版Windows 7回家測試。

撇步二：邀請全新男子團體，在西方，人稱美國西城男孩的接班人，在東方，人稱台灣天團5566出道以來首次害怕的真正對手 - “4 Softies and a Pizza Guy” (翻譯：4個軟啪啪與1個比薩男)為PDC2008代言，並帶來首張單曲MV:

首波主打旋律不但好聽，歌詞更是令全球Developer毛骨鬆軟，不自主地跟著一起唱…

Verse 1:
I’ve seen you in my dreams, I love you so much
I know I’m gonna love the way that you respond to my touch
So fine, I need to make you mine
When we’re together there ain’t no mountain we can’t climb
Verse 1A:
P-D-C, two thousand eight
Windows 7 is coming and I can’t wait
I’m gonna get the first one, right out of the crate, Wrap your windows around me
Chorus:
I share my best ideas with you
Make them come true, ’cause that’s what you’re meant to do You take me closer to heaven
Tell your dreams and hopes to me
Get close to me, ’cause that’s where you’re ’sposed to be I’m talkin’ about Windows 7. ooaahooo
Verse 2:
You turn me on, with your graphics and text I get so excited when I think about where you’ll take me next
I’m gonna leave with my developer guide
And tons of Windows content on a hundred sixty gigabyte drive!
Verse 2A:
P-D-C, two thousand eight
Windows 7 is coming and I can’t wait.
The desktop and taskbar will integrate,
Wrap your windows around me.
Chorus….
Mid section
They say the eyes are the windows to the soul When I look in your eyes, I almost lose control
We’ve got a strong foundation, efficient applications
And new APIs
When I’m with you I feel energized!
Rap:
7 is my lucky number
At night I get 7 hours of slumber
And Windows 7 at the PDC, twenty o eight, is gonna go and steal the other guy’s thunder Developers and users, be good to your computers
Ya can’t win with another system made for losers. for Windows 7, my love is true Now let me use direct 3d to unlock your GPU!
Verse 1A…..
Chorus…..

此天團出道不到一個月，在歌迷的讚嘆與謾罵中硬是奪得2.5顆星評價，與超過20萬個播放次數，今年想角逐艾美獎的，小心了！

Tags: PDC 2008, Professional Developer Conference, Viral Video

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5. 看了Vista新廣告，也別忘記Vista新網頁

恐懼往往是事情還未發生時，人們在心中想像出來的，它大過於事情真正發生時所帶來的恐懼。 - 嚴長壽

我覺得這段話很適合送給全球恐慌中的投資人與法人機構。

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我們眼睛所看到的東西，遠超過我們腦子所處理的，所以我們只在看我們自己想看的東西….你看世界的方式，其實是很不利於創意的，因為你在定義所有的事情。其實創意就是要把所有標籤都去掉，所以我們平時就要開始，這個不是現在我們需要創意所以才「去標籤」，就是平時你就要讓腦中的處理器鬆開來…

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相關的新聞可以看這裡。我感到比較好奇的是bgc3.cn這個domain竟然已經被網路蟑螂註冊了，是在新聞發佈前還是發佈後發生的事呢？

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先前研究corporate history，許多第三方人士都認為當年微軟就是不懂得在華府預先埋下政治掮客(lobbyist)樁腳，才會導致反托拉法訴訟案一路敗退。簡單來說，當年的微軟就像快速成長的青春期少年(至少營收是快速成長)，橫衝直撞， 獨霸市場，但就是瞧不起，也忽略了政治槓桿操作。

事過境遷，布希總統上台後，全力支持自由市場，外加911攻擊事件，與網路科技股泡沫帶來的經濟衰退衝擊，美國人逐漸認同到一件事實 - 內憂外患之際，家裏養幾隻大怪獸，才是地球村村長地位的最佳保障。輿論終究一面倒，傾向於：美國以(偉)大企業為榮，不應在此時絆倒巨人。不久，各州接連撤回訴訟，微軟也暫時鬆了一口氣。(但歐洲的訴訟還是沒完沒了)

各種教訓中，微軟學到了重要的一課：維繫好和華府的關係，並善用政治掮客的力量。

2008年，Yahoo宣佈與Google結盟，共同在線上廣告市場分享收益，這回，換成是微軟提出反托拉斯訴訟，不但如此，10年養「客」有成，政治掮客們在這場戰爭中發揮 了策略性的作用。如同台灣的「大x新聞」、「2100全民x講」一般，掮客在華府宮廷對內游說官員，對外則透過各種媒體觀點影響大眾的想法，最終形成輿論壓力，讓法官判決時額頭冷汗直流。

也許再過不久，Google也將被迫學會走出網路世界，邀幾位政治人物和真實世界的農夫公會會長，畜牧公會會長，到Googleplex泡茶聊聊：

Among the complaints from lobbyists to government officials were letters from several farm groups, including the National Association of Farmer Elected Committees and the National Latino Farmers and Ranchers Trade Association. They said that because farmers use the Internet, they were worried about a Google-Yahoo monopoly. (source)

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In this climate (of economic downturn, H2 2008), many companies and many people will become victims and get distracted and focus on what they can’t control. - Kevin Turner, Microsoft COO

這讓我想起了Kevin Turner另一句另我印象深刻的話(大意)：

“Focus on what you can control, and you can change the world.”

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The economic situation is apparently so grim that some experts fear we may be in for a stretch as bad as the mid seventies.

When Microsoft and Apple were founded.

(source)

這幾年好日子過太久，已經很久沒見到偉大的新創事業浮出檯面了(特別是在台灣)。人才都躲到高薪的大公司領年薪。經濟越好，勇於追求夢想的人越少。so what’s now?

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我原本就對研究G.Y.M.的季報表相當有興趣，在經濟動盪的2008年H2，GOOG的營收表現就更加值得參考參考。現在看到docstocs充滿創意的文件呈現格式，(updated:docstocs & scribd都把這份文件的preview mode disable掉了…) 不把它embed進這個blog收藏就太對不起自己了！

Earnings Call Webcast

第五張slide有一個比較少見的詞彙 - TAC, Traffic Acquisition Cost, 字面意思是：獲得網頁流量所必須付出的成本，而對Google來說，TAC由兩種成本組成，其一是支付給加入AdSense program網站publisher的成本，另一是直接導流量到搜尋引擎的策略聯盟成本。FireFox和Opera將搜尋列預設為Google，你覺得是誰付錢給誰呢？: P

Google是一家滿特殊的上市公司，其眾多特色之中，「不透明」的財報，恐怕也是創新之一，時常讓華爾街的分析師霧裡看花。但每一季還是會公開一份如上文嵌入的slide和webcast向投資大眾說明。

Tags: Google 2008 Q3 營收, 法說會

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It is not the critic who counts, not the man who points out how the strong man stumbled, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better.

The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena: whose face is marred by the dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs and comes short again and again…

who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions and spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory or defeat.

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“scarcity builds clarity.” (source)

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At some point, I said that the vector of innovation has changed. It used to be that innovation started with NASA, flowed to the military, then to the enterprise, and finally to the consumer. Today, it is the reverse. All of the most interesting stuff is being built first for consumers and is tricking back to the enterprise. I suggested that one reason this is happening is that the success of a web service is more often determined by its social engineering than its electrical engineering. (source)

 

台灣的無名小站就是一個很好的例子。縱使技術上的瑕疵常被IT界長輩拿來茶餘飯後消遣，但台灣的social network驅動力(某種類型的人物，我就不多說了)一旦征服了無名相簿平台，點燃了social engineering的engine，成長隨即一發不可收拾…

想快速成長，選對你要服務的對象(與他們的心理)遠比選對要拿來當架構的技術重要，起碼在網路服務的世界是如此。

但成長和獲利，就又是兩碼子事了。

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Windows Vista Team Blog不久前發表了一篇文章，正式宣佈研發代號為Windows 7的下一代Windows作業系統，將正式被命名為…Windows 7 !

這對SEO會產生什麼影響呢？來看看台灣Google Search的結果：

日後Windows 7的官方產品網站上線後，官網99.9%機率會被排到搜尋結果的第一條，而照Vista的模式來看，Wikipedia說明頁緊接在官網之後的機率很大。沒意外的話…目前排名第二、第三的Mobile01和癮科技，將是這次Windows7正式名稱的SEO最大贏家。2010年後，應該可以導入不少對Window7有興趣的general consumer(a.k.a.婆婆媽媽) 到這兩個網站。

另外也來看看Live Search搜尋Windows 7的結果…

這這這…

大家不要害怕，是Live Search還沒正式推出中文版，等到正式上線，判別語系應該是件簡單的事…

補充：

Windows的各版本數字如下：

Windows 2000 = 5.0

Windows XP = 5.1

Windows Server 2003 = 5.2

Windows Vista / Server 2008 = 6.0

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When Tim Berners-Lee conceived the web, he dreamed of inter-connected documents, of surfing along from one person’s page to the next, following a fluid path rich with information and discovery.  —  Instead what we we got is a big honkin’ billboard, as commercial interests hijacked Tim’s vision. (source)

Haha, I hate to be a marketer and I love to be a marketer.最後一句真的是經典，Tim Berners Lee一定是看開了：「小子，看清楚，WWW是老爹我發明的，不過…隨便你們亂搞吧…」。

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Here is the comment I left on Mr.6’s post:

Web 2.0這周末被宣告死亡！建議所有網路創業家準備自學寫程式

Overall, I believe it’s difficult to change WEB2.0 bulls’ mind set even though they are witnessing what’s happening everyday. I call it Stubborn2.0.

But before we go further, let’s have a delicious appetizer first: (Disclosure: I’m in fact bullish, too. I’d absolutely like to see the global stock markets go way up and up.)

And the comment I posted with a little bit modifications:

The real problem: Economy downturn -> Advertisers cut marketing budgets (including online media plans) -> WEB2.0 sites revenues decrease (if there’s any revenue at all)

 

If your WEB2.0 sites are not counting on onsite ads to survive, then congrats! Lucky you.

 

Let’s face the reality. Ask yourself practical questions - “what’s my business model?”, “how’s my company’s burn-rate?”, “when will my company break-even?”, “where should I start the expense cuts?”

 

It’s time to focus on cash flows, rather then user growth.

 

Business is business. Your cost-effective-socially-connected-user-generated-content-software-as-a-service-crowd-wisdom-leveraged-light-weighted-programing-cloud-computing-permanently-Beta-widgetized-and-portable-and-opened-platform-ed-WEB2.0-dreaming may be no longer a sustainable business model during recession. Just keep dreaming big, when everyone is willing to spend.

 

Bonus reading : Sequoia Capital’s warnings & call-for-actions for their portfolio companies:

http://timothychen.info/2008/10/10/bye-the-good-old-time/

 

- Tim

Nothing could be better than being ended with Michael Arrington’s quote-of-the-day and the infamous Cyprus video:

Goodbye, Web 2.0. I hope I never have to type those words again. Now can we please get back to work? There’s still a ton left to do before we get to Matrix-style virtual reality, the Singularity, and mobile phones with batteries that last a whole day. (source)

 

Tags: Cyprus短片, WEB2.0泡沫

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5. 本日佳句 – Fred on Patent Troll

It’s counterintuitive, but during an up cycle people accept conventional wisdom, and during a down cycle people challenge it. That’s good. Very good. And the cycle will winnow competition. (source)

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4. 本日佳句 – Mob Rule
5. The Hype Cycle

While many companies would give their all for such strong customer loyalty, both Mr Wozniak and Mr Jobs “don’t like the fact that it’s a bit of a religion”.

“I would like to have the users influence the next generation,” he says. “With a religion you’re not allowed to challenge anything. I want our customers to challenge us.” (source)

看來Woz很適合微軟，微軟每天都被customers challenge…

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5. 本日佳句 – One of the Next Big Things

不是我說的，是Richard Stallman說的。(本文以下引述皆來自這篇Guardian新聞來源)

“It’s stupidity. It’s worse than stupidity: it’s a marketing hype campaign,”

不只GNU長輩這樣說，連Oracle大長輩Larry Ellison也說了以下的話：

“The interesting thing about cloud computing is that we’ve redefined cloud computing to include everything that we already do,

Stallman用了”stupidity”這個字眼來形容cloud computing，Ellison則是用了”gibberish+insane+idiocy”三個關鍵字來加強他的火力。

最後Stallman除了情緒性發言外，也提出了滿有道理的反cloud computing觀點：

“One reason you should not use web applications to do your computing is that you lose control,” he said. “It’s just as bad as using a proprietary program. Do your own computing on your own computer with your copy of a freedom-respecting program. If you use a proprietary program or somebody else’s web server, you’re defenceless. You’re putty in the hands of whoever developed that software.”

記者則是解讀為Stallman支持裝在電腦上的軟體。嗯，繼Woz之後，Stallman未來也許也該考慮加盟微軟…

Mr.6也發過一篇專文論Cloud Computing，在此分享一下我的回應：

Hi Mr.6, the following links are for your reference:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_plus_services

http://www.zdnet.com.tw/news/software/0,2000085678,20130785,00.htm

Per Microsoft’s Chinese definition, 『「雲」「端」運算』 is a combination of services on the cloud and native software based on a desktop OS.

It doesn’t matter how tricky the definition is, it’s how-many-people discussing-about-it that matters. : P

- Tim

Tags: 雲端計算 Cloud Computing

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5. Steve Ballmer的最新一期公開信(10/28)

這波 downturn應該會倒掉不少間網路公司。越是表面絢麗，沒有實質獲利模式的越容易和大家說再見。這樣也好，人才先回到體質佳的大型企業(如果還應徵的上的話…)，磨練個一陣子，見識一下什麼叫做「賺錢至上」。

以下是矽谷知名創投-Sequoia Capital近日對旗下portfolio companies的cautious warning & call for actions:

ps. 當年Sequoia Capital挑中創業投資的「小」公司，有許多如金已成為掛牌上市的大怪獸，如Apple, Yahoo, Google, nVidia, NetApp等，YouTube和Paypal則是被高價併購。

都已經掛保證了，這回老師說的話可要認真聽啊…

Tags: Sequoia Capital, startup and the economic downturn, 紅杉創投

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5. 本日佳句 – Fred on Patent Troll

I often ask myself questions to keep things clear in my mind. One good one to ask yourself is “What am I pretending not to see?” That can bring blind spots to the surface quickly. (source)

 

Interesting to see Mr. Trump talked about “pretending-not-to-see” today. I wonder worldwide real estate investors like him are doing such an exercise, or not. Better to face the realities.

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5. 本日佳句 – The Making of Goldman Sachs VIII

The Final paragraph resonate with my thoughts: (source)

There are those who say you can’t cut spending and raise taxes in a recession - that doing that will lead to a depression like we had in the 1930s. I don’t think so. I think the global economy is in an expansionary period driven by expanding wealth in the developing world and the power of technology to drive commerce and communication. And our problem is we are stuck in the last century, fighting the last war when it’s long over. We need to get our house in order, play in this global economy with a stable and sustainable business model. And we don’t have that now. And we must get it in place soon.

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5. Quick Notes: Eric Schmidt on Charlie Rose Interview

Here it is:

RSS is a little like radio. Every blog and many news services ‘broadcast’ a tiny little signal that you can’t hear, but your RSS reader can. (It’s like a radio tuner). You tell the RSS reader which blogs and news feeds you like, and whenever it senses that signal, it goes out and grabs the post for you. Quick and free. With a good reader, you can easily keep up with 100 blogs in less than an hour. (source)

 

I’m not sure how tech-savvy Seth Godin is, but the metaphor of radio broadcasting for RSS feeds subscription sounds quite fresh. To facilitate communications, every marketer should learn how to transform a complex term, process or technical details into some sort of tangible objects that target audiences are familiar with.

After all, the crowd are way more lazy, stupid and time-deprived than what you could imagine.

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If there is only one thing that enterprises ought to learn about Web 2.0, it’s this one: building information systems that allow you to adjust in real time based on interaction with your customers is the true mark of a networked enterprise. (source)

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今晚歐股美股持續大跌，再來分享一段科斯托蘭尼說過的話，為各位辛苦的上班族兼投資人打打氣：

在資本主義中沒有無風險的獲利，若不是有一些冒險家拿自己的錢做賭注，讓想像力自由延伸，就不會有蒸汽機的發明和今日的汽車或電腦，也不會有美國的摩天大樓，埃及的蘇伊士運河或其他的世界奇觀。世界就是一項探險(venture)，或者用現代話來說，是一項風險事業(venture business)。

Source - 證券心理學, 科斯托蘭尼

與其成天破口大罵華爾街的金融機構，不如換個角度想想，若不是這些金童(現在應該是擦鞋童)的投機(投資)，也就不會有資金在世界各地川流不息。你我身邊，處處蜷伏著空有點子，缺乏資金，卻一心想實踐夢想的發明家、創業家；也處處藏匿著既貪婪又執著的銀行家、投機者。當雙方碰了頭，發明家、創業家將新產品推廣給大眾，銀行家、投機者從新產品中大把獲利，世界就在不知不覺中進步了，你我的生活品質，就在不知不覺中提昇了。

還不錯吧！不要對你過去一兩年來在市場中所下的風險決策感到遺憾，它們雖然造成你短期的損失，卻也造就了長期對人類有益的行為模式。別想太多，看前面，看遠一點，繼續冒險！

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Finally, a technology executive willing to tell the truth about cloud computing.  Speaking at Oracle OpenWorld, Larry Ellison said that the computer industry is more fashion-driven than women’s fashion and cloud computing is simply the latest fashion. (source)

 

This quote reminds me the “Hype Cycle” of 2005 - 2008.

I was looking for the chart of 2008 published by Gartner for my personal study, but soon I found there are Hype Cycles of 2005, 2006 and 2007 circulating on the Internet as well. It’s fun to compare them all at once.

Here you go:

Definition of the 5 phases of a Hype Cycle -

http://www.gartner.com/pages/story.php.id.8795.s.8.jsp#2

2008 Hype Cycle (Hottest Buzzword: Green IT)

2007 Hype Cycle (Hottest Buzzwords: Gesture Recognition, Mashup, Virtual Worlds )

2006 Hype Cycle (Hottest Buzzword: Web2.0)

2005 Hype Cycle (Hottest Buzzwords: Biometric Identity Documents & BPM)

1995 Hype Cycle (the first version released by Gartner)

Will Cloud Computing reach the peak of hype next year?

Tags: cloud computing, Hype Cycle, Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, Larry Ellison

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While particular systems may come and go, how youth engage through social network sites today provides long-lasting insights into identity formation, status negotiation, and peer-to-peer sociality…I argue that social network sites are a type of networked public with four properties that are not typically present in face-to-face public life: persistence, searchability, exact copyability, and invisible audiences. These properties fundamentally alter social dynamics, complicating the ways in which people interact. I conclude by reflecting on the social developments that have prompted youth to seek out networked publics, and considering the changing role that publics have in young people’s lives. (source)

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• In 2008, China’s number of Internet users, 216 million, only represents 16.2% of total population

• 595 million mobile users in 2008, 800 million mobile user in 2012

• 1.4 billion online advertising spending in 2008, 5 billion online advertising spending in 2012 (37% increase per year)

Source: eMarketer, Sept., 2008

However something inside my mind believes that the numbers are exaggerated.

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也許未來的資訊世界終究是會走向SAAS模式 (software as a service)，但我相信S+S(software plus service)至少會在過度階段佔有一席之地。我自己也不太確定Microsoft倡導的S+S策略是否為長遠之際，但至少未來5年內MS會站在一個有(穫)利的位置上。

How & Why? Steve Ballmer透漏微軟將在10/27的PDC上首次曝光代號為”Windows Cloud”的雲端作業系統，來幫助developer開發網路應用程式。

Microsoft is set to create its own operating system for cloud c omputing, the company’s chief executive Steve Ballmer said today.

Speaking to a TechNet audience in London today, Ballmer said Microsoft would announce “Windows Cloud” within four weeks, adding he’s “sure we’ll have a snazzier name on launch.” (到時候會有一個更炫的名字)

最近真的看到越來越多”Software Plus Service”在主流媒體上出現。MS重返thought leadership之路越走越快啦！

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I’m excited about the opportunity to try to rethink from a business model and user interface standpoint where search is going. - Steve Ballmer on Microsoft Venture Capitalist Summit 2008 (source)

Innovation breadth: We pride ourselves on that. It is important to be broad. If you want to give people exciting and interesting careers, it turns out you better do more than one thing. Otherwise they’ll leave you to go do the next interesting thing on their minds. So, the innovation breadth is both an HR strategy, as well as a business strategy. - Steve Ballmer on Microsoft Venture Capitalist Summit 2008 (source)

最後Ballmer和VC們提到Tenacity的重要性：不要輕易放棄。也拿了一個他本人感到滿後悔的過早出場案例：

We had this business we called Sidewalk. It was local entertainment guides. We sold it to City Search. It was all wrong. There was nothing right about the idea, not a thing. Today I wish we hadn’t sold it, because I think we would have gotten to local search and doing local search well sooner. - Steve Ballmer on Microsoft Venture Capitalist Summit 2008 (source)

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