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Archive for November, 2008

Warren thought of all businesses this way. The employees who managed the business shared in earnings that their labor produced. But they were accountable to their owners who got the gains as the value of the business increased.

 

Of course, if the employee bought stock themselves, they became owners, too, and partners with the other capitalists. But no matter how much stock they owned, as employees their job required them to report to the owners on how well they had done. - (p.131, The Snowball)

 

本日感想:Be the owner, or be the labor.

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不知為何,最近只要一有空閒,同樣的問題就會打從心底冒出來:未來20年後還有marketing這個discipline嗎?marketing是否正在式微當中呢?

 

如果資訊科技已經發達到任何人都可以輕易「看到想看的,聽到想聽的」,躲過「不想看到的,不想聽到的」,那marketing,尤其是market communication的價值到底在哪裡呢?

 

校園裡隨便問個修過行銷學的年輕人,他或她會馬上告訴你,現在marketer早就不單是從事mar comm相關的工作而已,21世紀的marketer,將同時扮演更重要的influencer / evangelist角色 etc.etc. …不過,肖年耶,我們換個角度想想,這些身份是在怎樣的前提之下才能發揮作用呢?或是換個audience的角度想想,是什麼樣的人會(較容易)被意見領袖影響?是什麼人會(較容易)相信傳教士說的話?答案似乎呼之欲出了…

 

遠古時代,幾乎全地球人都死心踏地聽從部落祭司的話,現代,全地球只剩一小撮膜拜Jobs的蘋果教眾。是不是有時候想想,好像是古人比較單純,現代人越來越精明,越來越不好「騙」了…其實一直以來,造成「影響者與被影響者關係」的金科玉律都沒變過,都是資訊來源較多的一群人影響資訊來源較少的一群人;資訊來源較少的一群人,盲目(請包含我用比較誇張的修辭)跟隨資訊來源較多的一群人。

 

未來20年後,如果那真是個資訊擴散走上「完全效率」的時代,人人應該都有(趨向)平等的資訊來源取得權,也就是前文提到的,日後將會是資訊科技,而不是marketer,站在你這邊,協助你把想要的第一手中立資料主動餵送給你,並幫你過濾掉當下沒心情看的雜訊。behavior targetingsemantic search等領域的技術就正在勾勒這幅願景的輪廓。

 

只要資訊的世界越「平」,marketer能生存的空間恐怕就越小。一切又回到50年前行銷學院派的看法 - 好的產品會自動找到顧客,顧客也會自動找到好的產品。marketer這個連結產品與消費者的橋樑,將像各行各業的”middle man”一樣,逐漸被更公正,更透明,更有效率的資訊科技取代。

 

如果你是一個marketer,千萬不要被以上的「激進」言論搞到眉頭深鎖,這邊只是想要強調,”you can’t beat the system; the system always beats you instead.” 而marketer的宿命恐怕只有盡量學習如何利用,而不是排斥,任何可能會搶走飯碗的各種資訊科技或是新媒體。

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兩張殘酷的圖,從今年八月到今年十月兩點連成的斜率可真嚇人…

對企業主來說,IT infra的investment到底是nice to have 還是must have?

 

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這就是創意?

10-31-08imapc

(Source: AppleInsider)

顧客可以血拼完Apple的商品後,走進I’M A PC的Kiosk錄製一段I’m a PC短片,上傳到LifeWithOutAll網站,聽說還有機會成為系列電視廣告的一部分…

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The market got it right, but as usual it overshot. - Fred Wilson (source)

 

市場永遠是對的,但一如往常,它總是衝過頭。

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The starting point is to recognize the unique value of each part. The value of the PC lies in its computing power, its storage capacity, and its ability to help us be more productive and create and consume rich and complex documents and content.

 

For the Web, it’s the ability to bring together people, information, and services so we can connect, communicate, share, and transact with anyone, anywhere, at any time.

 

With the mobile phone and other devices, it’s the ability to take action spontaneously-to make a call, take a picture, or send a text message in the flow of our activities. (source)

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眾人會追尋、欣賞、以及推崇能夠激發他們內在三種情緒反應的領導者 –

受重視的感覺 (a feeling of significance)

共同體的感覺 (a feeling of community)

受到激勵的感覺 (a buzzing feeling) - HBR

 

老生常談了,但往往在每日工作的大小瑣事中被忽略掉。我想這段引述的關鍵字是「激發」,你要如何激發部屬的情緒?靠email memo?靠1 on 1meeting?靠展現在部屬眼前的一舉一動?

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較成功的主管通常會花一年多的時間,仔細診斷利害關係人的需求,培養觀念,並醞釀符合新方向的共識。較無效率的主管,則在獲得足夠支持前,就一頭栽進重大重諾裡。 - HBR

 

這段話告訴我們 - 不管有沒有起風,都要記得放出風向球。

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Google (apps) sells what they can offer, Microsoft sells what their customers need. 

 

Just look into the different value propositions of Microsoft Office Suites and Google Apps Suite, and you should get the same conclusion as quoted above.

 

Choice matters, richness of functionality matters.

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On Hiring

It only takes 10% as much effort to hire someone in the bottom 90% of the class.

And it takes the other 90% to find and cajole and retain the top 10%. (Seth Godin, source)

 

Hiring真的是一個有趣的東西,recruiter有時候也會犯錯,interviewer有時候也會看走眼,但一般來說,他們受到的責難卻不比他們招募進來的那位績效不佳的員工多。Why?人大概是感恩時會懂得飲水思「源」,但責難時卻往往只看到「表面」。

 

或其實原因很簡單 - to blame or not to blame, 通常最終有權決定僱用誰或不顧用誰的那一位,都是(大)老闆。

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DA: What would be the two or three things that would characterize the Microsoft way of computer software?

BG: The key for us, number one, has always been hiring very smart people. There is no way of getting around, that in terms of I.Q., you’ve got to be very elitist in picking the people who deserve to write software. Ninety-five percent of the people shouldn’t write complex software. And using small teams helps a lot.

You’ve got to give great tools to those small teams. So, pick good people, use small teams, give them excellent tools; vast compilation, debugging, lots of machines, profiling technology, so that they are very productive in terms of what they are doing. Make it very clear what they can do to change the spec. Make them feel like they are very much in control of it.

Have lots of people read the code so that you don’t end up with one person who is kind of hiding the fact that they can’t solve a problem. Design speed in from the beginning. A lot of things that have helped us, even as the project teams have become larger, and the company has become a lot larger than it was. It is not some methodology where there is a lot of funny documentation. Source code itself is where you should put all your thoughts, not in any other thing. So, our source codes, all though there are a few exceptions, tend to be very well commented in a very structured way.  (source)

 

“give great tools to those small teams”,歹年冬,不管企業再怎麼想要省錢,”tool”的投資真的不能也不應該減少。玩三國志時都知道要給武將買最好的武器了,在職場上怎麼會不知道呢?

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I certainly think that having some dimension, when you’re young, that you feel a mastery of, versus the other people around you is a very positive thing. (source)

 

記得很多年前,當我還是國小五六年級學生時,曾和一起走路上下學的鄰居好友兼電腦(遊戲)玩伴說過這樣一句話:hey,我們大概是這個鎮上年紀最小,又會編輯DOS的Config.sys和Autoexec.bat的人耶!然後好友接著說:沒錯,而且我們會自己買一條記憶體回來插到主機裡面…

 

對小孩來說,那種「大家都不會,只有我們會」的感覺真的是挺不錯的。(雖然隨著年齡的增長…這種感覺慢慢消失…)。讓小孩探索超出他們年齡應該做的事,對於培養興趣、自信、專注力和思考力都頗有幫助。

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Battelle asks what went wrong historically with Yahoo, and if Yahoo culture of fiefdoms got in their way. Yang responds that Yahoo’s culture is changing, and that the company needs more product discipline. Historically the company had scale problems, he says, because they didn’t have a platform approach. - Jerry Yang at Web 2.0 Summit 2008 (source)

 

一間公司在boom time時常會對媒體說,我們以擁有最快速、最創新、最自由的產品(創新)開發模式為傲,但在downturn時,卻往往改口對媒體強調我們將重整秩序,建立制度化流程,回歸到穩健的產品開發模式。

 

創新終究是要建立在制度之上,創新終究是要建立在獲利模式之上。創新終究是要建立在長期願景之上。

 

同我之前post的,Yahoo是該停止RD人才繼續花腦力開發討好重度使用者的,卻沒有明確獲利前景的服務 –許多服務往往只是給user/ blogosphere一個surprise,然後曇花一現。一間希望造福人類的公司,起碼必需要能夠存活在市場,而且持續獲利,才能繼續提供好的產品和好的服務。

 

經營一間公司,當下只討好使用者,卻不討好股東,最後恐面臨大量人才流失或被併購,這樣的結果,對使用者,尤其是fans來說,也是一種不負責的行為。

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It’s emotional, it’s personal, and it sucks. I’m not one to get depressed, but I would be lying if I told you that I haven’t been depressed about having to do these layoffs. While emotion is great when you’re in the heat of competition, it really doesn’t help that much when you’re doing strategy work. As such, you need to get the members of your management team to agree that you’re going to pursue your very difficult job with as little emotion as possible. If it helps, pretend you’re an outside consultant and you’ve been given the task to “save the company” with these cuts–because that’s not far off from the truth.

In other words, try and detach yourself from the emotion of the situation so you can make the right decisions. You’re going to have to tap into that emotional stuff later anyway–conserve it during your analysis and strategy. (source)

 

把”layoffs”替換成「砍掉手中虧損的投資部位」似乎也是相當合適。想像自己就是自己顧來的個人顧問,用第三人稱觀點來分析目前面對的問題,以及下一步該怎麼做。不帶有任何情感。

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nbalive63

就在Windows 7與Windows Azure於PDC 2008熱鬧登場之際,Steve Ballmer也”Ally-oops”了一下,發出了一封致所所有使用者的公開信(可在此訂閱),全文如下:

 

Subject:

A Platform for the Next Technology Revolution

During the past decade, a dramatic transformation in the world of information technology has been taking shape. It’s a transformation that will change the way we experience the world and share our experiences with others. It’s a transformation in which the barriers between technologies will fall away so we can connect to people and information no matter where we are. It’s a transformation where new innovations will shorten the path from inspiration to accomplishment.

Many of the components of this transformation are already in place. Some have received a great deal of attention. “Cloud computing” that connects people to vast amounts of storage and computing power in massive datacenters is one example. Social networking sites that have changed the way people connect with family and friends is another.

Other components are so much a part of the inevitable march of progress that we take them for granted as soon as we start to use them: cell phones that double as digital cameras, large flat-screen PC monitors and HD TV screens, and hands-free digital car entertainment and navigation systems, to name just a few.

What’s missing is the ability to connect these components in a seamless continuum of information, communication, and computing that isn’t bounded by device or location. Today, some things that our intuition says should be simple still remain difficult, if not impossible. Why can’t we easily access the documents we create at work on our home PCs? Why isn’t all of the information that customers share with us available instantly in a single application? Why can’t we create calendars that automatically merge our schedules at work and home?

This week at the Professional Developers Conference (PDC) in Los Angeles, we shared news with software developers about a new set of platform technologies that will help transcend these limits. I wanted to share my thoughts about the impact that these technologies will have as developers begin to use them to create a new generation of experiences that extend uninterrupted from the desktop to the mobile phone, media player, car, and beyond—to places where we never thought information and communications would be available to us.

A New Platform for Cloud Computing

At PDC, we announced the availability of an early preview release of a new technology called Windows Azure. Windows Azure will enable developers to build applications that extend from the cloud to the enterprise datacenter and span the PC, the Web, and the mobile phone. For the first time, we shared pre-beta code for Windows 7 and for Windows Server 2008 R2. Windows 7, which is the next version of the Windows desktop operating system, will take advantage of software and hardware advances to help eliminate the boundaries between information, people, and devices.

We also previewed Office Web applications, which are light-weight versions of Word, Excel, PowerPoint, and OneNote that are designed to be accessed through a browser. Office Web applications will be part of the next version of Office and will enable people to view, edit, and share information and collaborate on documents on the desktop, the phone, and in a Web browser in a way that is consistent and familiar.

Windows Azure is part of the Azure Services Platform, a comprehensive set of storage, computing, and networking infrastructure services that reside in Microsoft’s network of datacenters. Using the Azure Services Platform, developers will be able to build applications that run in the cloud and extend existing applications to take advantage of cloud-based capabilities. The Azure Services Platform provides the foundation for business and consumer applications that deliver a consistent way for people to store and share information easily and securely in the cloud, and access it on any device from any location.

Windows Azure is not software that companies will run on their own servers. It’s something new: a service that runs in Microsoft’s growing network of datacenters and provides the platform that helps companies respond to the realities of today’s business environment, and tomorrow’s. Windows Azure technologies are already finding their way into products such as Windows Server 2008 and System Center Virtual Machine Manager, enabling organizations and Microsoft partners to create their own cloud infrastructure.

Windows Azure will enable organizations to respond to realities such as the need to use the Web to provide customers with comprehensive information and to interact with an audience that has the potential to expand exponentially overnight; to integrate operations with partners — and sometimes even competitors — to meet customer needs; to add new capabilities quickly to respond to new opportunities; and to enable employees to work efficiently and effectively no matter where they are. These realities apply not just to businesses, but to organizations of all kinds: schools, governments, community groups, and more.

Traditional approaches to building technology infrastructure and delivering computing capabilities make it difficult and expensive to adjust to these realities. You need systems with enough capacity to meet the highest possible demand—capacity that includes servers and buildings to house them, the power to run them, and the people to manage them. You have to spread that capacity across locations so there’s a backup if one part fails. You have to solve issues like access for different types of users and compliance with tax regulations in all countries where your customers reside.

Designed specifically to meet the global scale that today’s organizations require, the Azure Services Platform will provide fundamentally new ways to deploy services and capabilities. It gives businesses the option to take advantage of the capacity available in the cloud as it is needed, reducing the need to make large upfront investments in infrastructure simply to be ready when demand spikes. It will enable developers to create applications that run in the cloud and provide the features, information, and interactivity that employees, partners, and customers expect — no matter how many of them there are, where they are in the world, or what device they have at hand.

Software Plus Services and the Power of Choice

The Azure Services Platform reflects our belief that choice is critical for developers, companies, and consumers. It is also based on our belief that the key to delivering value today and in the future lies in combining the best aspects of software running on PCs, servers, and devices with the best aspects of services running on the Web — an approach we call “software plus services.”

Our software plus services approach lets people take full advantage of the incredible power of today’s devices. While there are undeniable benefits to being able to tap into the wealth of information and services that can be accessed over the Web through a browser, the interactive experiences that people expect on their PC, mobile phone, and media player depend on sophisticated software running on powerful processors.

The richness of these experiences will only increase as multicore processors expand the computing capabilities of our devices and new programming languages open the door to a new generation of applications that let us use more natural ways to interact with digital technology such as voice, touch, and gestures.

Software plus services also recognizes that for most companies, the ideal way to build IT infrastructure is to find the right balance of applications that are run and managed within the organization and applications that are run and managed in the cloud.

This balance varies by company. A financial services company may choose to maintain customer records within its own datacenter to provide the extra layers of protection that it feels are needed to safeguard the privacy of personal information. It may outsource IT systems that provide basic capabilities such as e-mail.

This balance will change over time within an organization, as well. A company may run its own online transaction system most of the year, but outsource for added capacity to meet extra demand during the holiday season. With software plus services, an organization can move applications back and forth between its own servers and the cloud quickly and smoothly.

Today, companies around the world are implementing Microsoft technologies to take advantage of the best combination of on-premise software and cloud-based services. Using Microsoft Online Services, businesses including Coca-Cola Enterprises, Blockbuster, and Energizer access and manage Microsoft Exchange, SharePoint, Office Communications Server, and Live Meeting over the Web through a single, secure infrastructure. In addition, 1 million people rely on Office Live Workspace for sharing and collaborating with friends, family, and colleagues.

Expanding the Definition of Personal Computing

Ultimately, the reason to create a cloud services platform is to continue to enhance the value that computing delivers, whether it’s by improving productivity, making it easier to communicate with colleagues, or simplifying the way we access information and respond to changing business conditions.

In the world of software plus services and cloud computing, this means extending the definition of personal computing beyond the PC to include the Web and an ever-growing array of devices. Our goal is to make the combination of PCs, mobile devices, and the Web something that is significantly than more the sum of its parts.

The starting point is to recognize the unique value of each part. The value of the PC lies in its computing power, its storage capacity, and its ability to help us be more productive and create and consume rich and complex documents and content.

For the Web, it’s the ability to bring together people, information, and services so we can connect, communicate, share, and transact with anyone, anywhere, at any time.

With the mobile phone and other devices, it’s the ability to take action spontaneously — to make a call, take a picture, or send a text message in the flow of our activities.

Through Live Mesh — a service from Microsoft that we announced earlier this year and about which we shared new information week — we’re beginning to bridge the PC, phone, and Web and create this next generation of connected experiences. Built on the Azure Services Platform, Live Mesh enables you to use programs and information stored on your work computer from your home PC, and vice versa. With Live Mesh, you can share folders and ensure that the information is automatically synchronized across your devices.

Live Mesh hints at how our lives will be transformed as the barriers between devices disappear and the option to connect instantly to people, devices, programs, and information becomes a reality.

We’re not quite there yet. Today, the Azure Services Platform is available only as a limited technology preview release. But as developers begin to combine the capabilities of this new platform with the amazing ongoing hardware and software innovations that we are seeing from companies across the industry, it will bring us significantly closer to the time when information, communication, and computing flows along with us seamlessly as we move through our day-to-day activities.

You can learn more about these technologies and the progress we are making by visiting the Microsoft Software + Services Web site.

I look forward to sharing more information with you about these new technologies in the near future.

Steve Ballmer

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由於我所研究的這些人,並未創造出一個符合眾人需求的組織(註:前文提到壓抑公會的大資本主義),因此如果你想為他們當中任何一個人工作,你就必須深信這些巨擘們所塑造的使命或宗旨,並且宣揚他們的理念。否則,無處供你容身。 - What Titans Can Teach Us, Harvard Business Review.

 

學會如何把「賽缺」塞給部屬,是一門藝術,而引言提到的「願景洗腦大法」,是這門藝術的創作手法之一。一位好manager充其量只是做到把屬下當成生產機器,在機器過熱之前,有效地分配產能 (management = resource allocation)。而一位好的leader,則是送給屬下一支好畫筆,一盒好顏料,一張白紙,定一個以關鍵字”scorecard”作為結尾的主題,讓他們自由發揮。

 

你用管理生產線的方式要求員工,產出的就是加工品,一成不變的加工品;你用帶領藝術家的方式激勵員工,產出的就是傑作,有潛力在拍賣晚會被高價賣出的傑作。

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  5. 本日佳句 – Focus on Business

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大多人(包含媒體)一定還是認為Microsoft是一家software公司,面對Google來勢洶洶,笨笨的微軟竟還在砸大錢研發看不見未來的癡肥軟體,到現在都還沒有想到一套完整的方案對付Google Apps…etc,etc.

 

真的是這樣嗎?Google Apps的企業版(Premier Edition, GAPE)目前仍然在中小企業市場苦戰,時有正面PR,如前陣子華府公家單位宣佈採用Google Apps solution,也有負面 PR,如8月份的Gmail大斷線,但整體來說,要和Office Suite二分天下,不能只打中小企業城巷戰,還必須和微軟在赤壁之戰那種等級的大型戰區分出勝負才有希望。

 

(Why big corps are being hesitated to adopt GAPE? My guess: issues of security, privacy, controllability, stability - e.g. uptime, timely backup, ease of management, etc..and most importantly, IT staffs’ resistance - they’re afraid of the fact that one day on-demanded, cloud based automations will replace their roles and responsibilities,  and thus resulting their losing jobs.)

 

在Google大舉進攻的同時,你眼中的Microsoft仍是採取守勢,死守Windows + Office四行倉庫嗎?如果你也這樣想,那就跟不太努力做功課的媒體記者差不多囉。

 

當線上版服務掛點時,如果企業自家有對應的軟體作為備份,是不是更加安全更加可靠?如果你是企業IT人員,你會希望發生架設在遠方(可能是Google或Amazon或37signals在地球某處的data center)的線上服務中斷,自己卻無能為力搶救的窘境嗎? 這時候如果能拍拍胸補,告訴老闆,放心,我們還有機房的基本對應備援機制,與同步在公司同仁電腦中的檔案備份,可以維持email收發等一般業務的運作。這樣一來,被promote將是你,而被fire掉的,將是隔壁那家把全部IT資源都丟到cloud,導致服務中斷當時,一切運作停擺,只能狂call服務供應商求救(當時應該已經滿線)的可憐IT人員。

 

鋪陳前面一拖拉庫,我要說的是,yes,微軟不但死守Windows + Office四行倉庫,更以四行倉庫為基礎,開發了一系列「對應」的網路服務,捍衛你的IT職涯。微軟提出的”Software + Services”策略,就是要幫助你避免被fire掉的情況發生

 

就【軟體加服務】(S+S)的願景來看,除了前幾天PDC發表的Windows AzureOffice 14 + Office Web Application將內建的online/offline sync-up mode,另有Office Live Small Business以及消費者端的Windows LiveLive MeshOffice Live Workspace。重點來了,MS其實還有一條產品線,叫做”Microsoft Online Services“,專門提供企業客戶「雲端」版(這個芭樂字最近已經紅到我無意識都會打出來了)的SharePoint, Exchange, OCS, Dynamics CRM等等服務。企業IT部門可以選擇把這些怪獸級server software買回家host在公司機房,或是以算人頭的方式,每個月信用卡繳費使用線上版服務。微軟的理念中,伺服器軟體的on-premises deployment版和online service版算是互補,在節省總預算的前提下,彈性提供企業增強模組,而不是互斥關係。當然,online版也支援Active Directory,在group policy的設定方面仍是輕鬆解決輕鬆管。

 

Microsoft Online Services目前包含下列產品:

  • Dynamics CRM Online
  • Office Live Meeting Online
  • SharePoint Online
  • Exchange Online
  • Exchange Hosted Service
  • Office Communications Online

 

價格從每人頭每月1.75美金到39美金不等,相較於Google Apps企業版的每人頭每年50美金彈性了一些(但也貴了一些)。嗯,但回到本文第五段,我很想說,各位看倌,省錢是一時的,但被公司fire掉,卻是會造成心中永遠的痛啊!

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