昨晚上湊巧也有幸經歷到Google把每個搜尋結果都判別成「對你的電腦有害」事件。今天看到官方部落格馬上站出來解釋情況。發言人當然是大家都很熟悉的Google public face – Marrisa Mayer，她並強調(2次)，這次的簍子，來自於人為疏失。
What happened? Very simply, human error. Google flags search results with the message "This site may harm your computer" if the site is known to install malicious software in the background or otherwise surreptitiously. We do this to protect our users against visiting sites that could harm their computers. We maintain a list of such sites through both manual and automated methods…
We periodically update that list and released one such update to the site this morning. Unfortunately (and here’s the human error), the URL of ‘/’ was mistakenly checked in as a value to the file and ‘/’ expands to all URLs…
讓我比較驚訝的是，過去網路服務商出包時，總傾向於把錯誤作外部歸因，像是以下我們常看到的說詞:
由於系統錯，造成您的不便…
由於突發性斷電，造成…
由於伺服器例行性維護，造成…
爛一點的還有:
由於非預期性的錯誤，造成…(非預期性的錯誤?有人可以翻譯一下嗎?)
反正千錯萬錯，都是機器的錯。Where’s the people? Where’s the management?
Here is what you, as a relatively conservative investor, should consider when picking up individual stock:
1. Adequate size. No stock smaller than 2 billion market capital (as of 2002).
2. Strong financial condition. At least 2-to-1 current ratio (current assets : current liabilities) and more working capital than long-term liabilities (working capital = current assets - current liabilities).
3. Earning stability. Positive earnings for each of the past 10 years.
4. Dividend record. Dividends paid for at least past 20 years.
5. Earning growth. EPS grows at least one-third over the past 10 years. (averaged last 3 years of the 10 year period v.s. averaged initial 3 years of the 10 year period.)
6. Moderate P/E ratio. No more than 15 times. (P/E ratio is derived from by dividing current price by averaged earnings over the past 3 years.)
7. Moderate price-to-book ratio. No more than 1.5. (Though most stock nowadays are at higher ratios than Graham’s day because of higher proportion of intangible assets.)
If you have any comments about our WEB page, you can either write us at the address shown above or e-mail us at berkshire@berkshirehathaway.com. However, due to the limited number of personnel in our corporate office, we are unable to provide a direct response.
The Snowball還有最後幾段佳句書摘還沒和大家分享，最後幾個章節可說是全書菁華，尤其是最後一段，一口氣把Buffett的人生、性格做了濃縮版回顧總結。好酒當然不能這麼快拿出來，這邊先分享Buffett也常提起的”Ovarian Lottery”：
Buffett then spoken of the Ovarian Lottery. “I have been very lucky. I was born in the United States in 1930 and won the lottery the day I was born. I had terrific parents, a good education, and I was wired in a way that paid off disproportionately in this particular society. If I had been born long ago or in some other country, my particular wiring would not have paid off the way it has. But in a market system, where capital-allocation wiring is important, it pays off like no other place”
“All long, I’ve felt the money was just claim checks that should go back to society. I am not an enthusiast for dynastic wealth, particularly the alternative is six billion people who’ve got much poorer hands in life than we have, getting a chance to benefit from the money. And my wife agreed with me.“
所以，一點都不意外，Buffett決定把財富都捐給比爾蓋茲的基金會運用：
“It was clear that Bill Gates had an outstanding mind with the right goals, focusing intensely with passion and heat on improving the lot of mankind around the world without any regard to gender, religion, color, or geography. He was just doing the most good for the most people. So when the time came to make a decision on where the money would go, it was a simple decision.”
I’ve decided the right thing to do is take some time off and get a better perspective on what I’m spending my life doing. I’ll be taking most of February off from writing, and decide what the best future for me is while sitting on a beach somewhere far away from my iPhone and laptop. I’ll be continuing to write this week and cover news from the World Economic Forum in Davos, then I’ll take time off starting next week.
Michael Arrington過去背景是律師，發表的評論以直言著名(我個人覺得還滿公正的，雖然比起Tim O’Reilly, Dave Winer等前輩，他的評論算是比較「親」微軟派，不會看到微軟就罵，看到open source就敲邊鼓)，所以，也常因為說真話，得罪被寫負評的網站創辦人或利害關係人，慘一點話，就會收到對方寄來的「不悅」信件。他的作法往往是直接把信件公開，外加說出幕後原委，讓網友自行來評評理。這麼”social”的作法，換來不少網友的支持，但我覺得本質上應該沒有得到「不爽」那一方的諒解，甚至只是加深仇恨，這也是為什麼會有人僱用殺手….喔說錯，這也是為什麼會Michael Arrington私下會受到這麼多壓力的原因之一。
我的結論呢？網路、或部落圈是一個自由的地方，你認同這個人，認同他的文章，認同他的看法，so be it。你看不慣這個人，不認同他的文章，反對他的看法，so be it。你可以用各種不同的方式表達你的”so be it”，標準很簡單，在現實世界你不會對這個人做的事，在一個房間裡你不會對這個人做的事，在網路上你也不應該對這個人做。至於現實世界吐口水在臉上，這真的太誇張了…。好吧，往好方面想，在公開場合被攻擊彷，至少證明了你是實實在在，有「影響力」的大人物啊！
“People ask me where they should go to work, and I always tell them to go to work for whom they admire most.,” he said. He urge them not to waste their time and their life.”It’s crazy to take little in-between jobs just because it looks good on your resume. That’s like saving sex for your old age. Do what you love and work for whom you admire the most, and you’ve given yourself the best chance in life you can.” - The Snowball, p.708
可以到這邊下載IE 8 RC1，目前支援Vista, XP, Windows Server 2008, Windows Server 2003 等OS。根據IE官方部落格的說法，如果在Windows 7安裝，會告訴你，咳咳，不支援，因為你已經是IE8了XD
Note: If you are running Windows 7 Beta, you will not be able to install IE8 RC1. You will get an error message saying that your operating system is not supported since IE8 already ships in Win7. The IE8 RC1 available from Microsoft Download Center is a standalone upgrade for downlevel version of the OS only: Windows Vista, Windows XP, Windows Server 2008 and Window Server 2003.
很明顯地，與去年同期相比，Cost of revenue增加了10.27%，Research and development增加了21.49%，Sale and marketing增加了7.08%，General and administrative減少了22.05%，總營運成本支出增加了7.83%。
REDMOND, Wash. — Jan. 22, 2009 — Microsoft Corp. today announced revenue of $16.63 billion for the second quarter ended Dec. 31, 2008, a 2% increase over the same period of the prior year. Operating income, net income and diluted earnings per share for the quarter were $5.94 billion, $4.17 billion and $0.47, declines of 8%, 11% and 6%, respectively, compared with the prior year.
Client revenue declined 8% as a result of PC market weakness and a continued shift to lower priced netbooks. However, strong annuity licensing drove Server & Tools revenue growth of 15%. Entertainment and Devices revenue grew 3% driven by strong holiday demand for Xbox 360 consoles with a record 6 million units sold in the quarter.
當然謠傳很久的傳言也成真了：
In light of the further deterioration of global economic conditions, Microsoft announced additional steps to manage costs, including the reduction of headcount-related expenses, vendors and contingent staff, facilities, capital expenditures and marketing. As part of this plan, Microsoft will eliminate up to 5,000 jobs in R&D, marketing, sales, finance, legal, HR, and IT over the next 18 months, including 1,400 jobs today. These initiatives will reduce the company’s annual operating expense run rate by approximately $1.5 billion and reduce fiscal year 2009 capital expenditures by $700 million.
In my introduction, I mention that entrepreneurship starts with vision. Without a vision, nothing of consequence will happen. I have told the story before of how the people who have survived harrowing situations seemed to have one thing in common–they maintained hope, and kept a clear vision not only of survival, but their future. They were making plans throughout their ordeal. - Donald Trump (source)
The Genie這個章節只有兩頁，節錄一段巴菲特公開演講時常會和學生分享的神燈精靈故事。故事的寓意很簡單，幾近老生常談，但從巴菲特口中說出就是不一樣：
“When I was sixteen, I had just two things on my mind - girls and cars,” Buffett would say, taking a little poetic license by leaving out the part about money. “I wasn’t very good with girls. So I thought about cars. I thought about girls, too, but I had more luck with cars.”
“let’s say that when I turned sixteen, a genie had appeared to me. And that genie said, ‘Warren, I’m going to give you the car of your choice. It’ll be here tomorrow morning with a big bow tied on in. Brand-new. And that’s all yours.’
“Having head all the genie stories, I would say, ”What’s the catch?’ And the genie would answer, ‘There’s only one catch. This is the last car you’re ever going to get in your life. So it’s going to last a lifetime.’
“If that had happened, I would have picked out that car. But can you imagine, knowing it had to last a lifetime, what I would do with it?
“I would read the manual about five times. I would always keep it garaged. If there was the least little dent or scratch, I’d have it fixed right away because I wouldn’t want it rusting. I would baby the car, because it would have to last a lifetime.
“That’s exactly the position you are in concerning your mind and body. You only get one mind and one body. And it’s got to last a lifetime. Now, it’s very easy to let them ride for many years. But if you don’t take care of that mind and that body, they’ll be a wreck forty years later, just like the car would be.
“It’s what you do right now, today, that determines how your mind and body will operate ten, twenty, and thirty years from now.”
這段同樣是在Tim O’Reilly的本周好文中看到的。他引用了詩人Rainer Maria Rilke的一段詩，勉勵大家，尤其是entrepreneur，不要「一次被推倒，終生被推倒…」如果小有成就就沾沾自喜，終究會讓我們成為小鼻子小眼睛的人；被越大的困境擊倒，越是值得高興，因為下次reset時，你已經知道什麼叫做「大」了。
“What we fight with is so small, and when we win, it makes us small. What we want is to be defeated, decisively, by successively greater things.”
I’m a strong believer in the social value of business done right. We need to build an economy in which the important things are paid for in self-sustaining ways rather than as charities to be funded out of the goodness of our hearts. - Tim O’Reilly (source)
一間公司賺大錢的原因不一定是over-charge消費者，事實上，大部份賺錢的公司都是懂得讓自己成為超高市佔率或是超高毛利率的印鈔機。超高市佔率的前提下，就有可能只charge消費者合理的價位，以量致勝(如某電子一哥)；超高毛利率的前提下，就有可能是壓榨operation cost(翻譯：超低基層員工薪水)或壓榨cost of goods sold(翻譯：砍砍砍上游供應商或是下游經銷商的議價空間)(如某Mart)。不論是上述哪種scenario，終端消費者都是最大受益者。這說明了企業還是有可能在終端市場，以合理價位提供產品與服務給消費者，同時維持賺錢賺到翻的爽境。
扯遠了，舖這麼多梗只是要為「賺大錢的公司->欺負消費者」這樣的錯誤觀念平反一下。本來quote Tim O’Reilly是要說明，一間賺大錢的公司要論邪不邪惡，要看賺來的錢被花在哪裡？是公司的銀行帳戶裡？公司的頭的口袋裡？還是積極編列預算，積極投資，積極採購，把錢再丟回經濟體的大齒輪當中？如果是後者，那這就是一間好公司，因為「花錢花得有效率」，是這個社會持續繁榮的重要因素。
We can’t fix today’s problems unless we change yesterday’s rules. But economists — and the models they rely on — are bounded by yesterday’s rules. - Umair Haque (sourc)
我想同樣的一句話也可以改寫為：I can’t fix today’s problem unless I change yesterday’s habit. 放大來看，一間公司的今日的問題，可能是過去(賺錢或賠錢)的商業模式或流程造成的；縮小來看，一個人當下面對的問題，可能是過去遵循的舊習造成的。
不覺得遇每次遇到差不多的問題(快要發生時)，我們的反應都差不多嗎？You got it. You know how to fix it.
我不太清楚巴菲特是否有虔誠宗教信仰，但他的Inner Scorecard信念的確和宗教性的”I’m judged by God, not others.”態度類似。只不過他就是當自己的God。一個人是否容易受到外界左右，雖說多半是一出生就決定了，但獨立思考、獨立判斷、獨立行為的能力，還是可以透過後天強制練習慢慢調整過來。至少這是我的信念之一。
“Bill started trying to convince me to get a computer. I said, I don’t know what it it’s going to do for me. I don’t care how my stock portfolio is doing every five minutes. And I can do my income taxes in my head. Gates said he would pick out the best-looking gal at Microsoft and send her to teach me how to use the computer. He would make it totally painless and pleasant. I told him, ‘you’ve made me an offer I almost can’t refuse, but I’ll refuse it.’”
“Before long, Buffett was so engrossed in Internet bridge that nothing could disturb him. When a bat got into the house and flapped around the TV room, banging into the walls and entangling itself in the curtains, Astrid shrieked, ‘Warren, there’s a bat in here!’ Sitting across the room in his frayed terry-cloth bathrobe, staring at his bridge hand, he never move his eyes from the screen as he said, ‘It’s not bothering me any.’ Astrid called the pest-control people and they removed the bat, all without disturbing his bridge game.”
- The Snowball, P 635
可別小看“focus”, 這可是世界首富和世界第二首富(當年)認為自己能小有成就的關鍵：
“…at dinner, Bill Gates Sr. posed the question to the table: What factor did people feel was the most important in getting to where they’d gotten in life? And I said, ‘Focus.’ And Bill said the same thing.”
The Snowball中，巴菲特生動口述當年初次和比爾蓋茲見面情況，一開始蓋茲還小有抱怨，說股票不是他的菜，爸爸媽媽的和好友的聚會為什麼硬是要逼他去…他本來決定去一下就要閃人…but…
“We talked and talked and talked and talked and paid no attention to anybody else. I started asking him a whole bunch about his business, not expecting to understand any of it. He’s a great teacher, and we couldn’t stop talking.” - The Snowball, P623
有時候我只能說，巴菲特和比爾蓋茲能成為好朋友也真是奇蹟啊！他對“電腦+人= out of control”的觀點，和蓋茲的“電腦+人 = unlimited potential”的理想，簡直是差了十萬八千里啊…
“To Buffett, it was obvious that the combination of fallible human beings and judgement-free computers in a completely unmonitored, unsupervised environment, meant an almost unlimited potential for things to go wildly.” - The Snowball, P557
俗話說的好，好的東西放越久就會越好，爛的東西放越久就會越爛，巴菲特認為，寧可用普通便宜的價格，買下第一流的公司，也不要用超級便宜的價格，買下第三流的公司。人生許多抉擇也能套用這個原則。應該多著眼在「價值」之上，而不是在「要付出多少代價」來換取價值之間鑽牛角尖。Think about how do(should) we choose a girl/boy friend?
“Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre. You might think this principle is obvious, but I had to learn it the hard way…After ending our corporate marriage to Hochschild-Kohn, I had memories like those of he husband in the country song ‘My Wife Ran Away with My Best Friend and I Still Miss Him a Lot.’… It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. Charlie understood this early; I was a slow learner. But now, when buying companies or common stocks, we look for first-class businesses accompanied by first-class managements. That leads right into a related lesson: Good jockeys will do well on good horses but not on broken-down nags.”
Buffet would later write to the partners that buying “the right company (with the right prospects, inherent industry conditions, management, etc.)” means “the price will take care of itself…This is what causes cash register to really sing. However, it is an infrequent occurrence, as insights usually are, and of course, no insight is required on the quantitative side — the figures should hit you over the head with a baseball bat. So the really big money tends to be made by investors who are right on qualitative decisions.”
- The Snowball, p.265
可惜這個世界上有太多重量不重質的投資者了…因為「質」摸不透，又難判斷好壞，也沒有嚇人的數字，沒辦法做成精彩刺激的圖表，很多財經記者、分析師、名嘴、投顧老師、財經書籍，都會刻意避開這一塊吃力不討好的領域，反正說了(寫了)也沒幾個人看…所以這方面的功課就待有心的投資者慢慢DIY挖掘了。Hint: going back to your b-school and consulting your professors should be a good starting point. At least you could count on some hard-core scholars who are not corrupted by volatile numbers on the markets.
“The big question about how people behave is whether they’ve got an Inner Scorecard or an Outer Scorecard. It helps if you can be satisfied with an Inner Scorecard. I always pose it this way. I say: “Lookit. Would you rather be the world’s greatest lover, but have everyone think you’re the world’s worst lover? Or would you rather be the world’s worst lover but have everyone think you’re the world’s greatest lover? Now, that’s an interesting question.”
“Here’s another one. If the world couldn’t see your results, would you rather be thought of as the world’s greatest investor but in reality have the world’s worst record? Or be thought of as the worst when you were actually the best?”
In teaching your kids, I think the lesson they’re learning at very, very early age is what their parents put the emphasis on. If all the emphasis is on all the world’s going to think about you, forgetting about how you really behave, you’ll wind up with an Outer Scorecard. Now my dad: He was a hundred percent Inner Scorecard guy.
Amazon的Jeff Bezos在2007 TED Conference中，拿淘金潮與100年前電燈/電力發明後，造成一股家電發明潮，來對比現在的網路創新熱潮。演講最後，Bezos唸了一段1917年Sears的平面廣告詞：”Use your electricity for more than light.”，Bezos說，這就是當前我們所處的「網路石器時代」(石器時代是我自己說的，他只是說”primary”)。潛力無窮的基礎建設(Internet)已經舖得差不多了，現在就等更多創新應用來徹底改變人類的生活。相當精彩有趣的一段演講，20分鐘。
靠著每週末一點一點堆雪球，終於在2009年的第一天，看完「滾雪球：華倫‧巴菲特和他的財富人生」、或台灣版書名「雪球–巴菲特傳」(The Snowball Warren Buffett and the Business of Life)。全書70%著墨於”humanity”，寫巴非特與周遭親友間的互動，以及他的內心世界(部份細節東方人來說，甚至是個人隱私等級的秘密，不太可能在一本名人傳記中看見)。剩下30%才是與他的商業智慧、理財觀念有關的片段。如果你抱著看致富秘笈心態來看這本書，可能會有些失望，但對我來說，這些內容不但完整呈現出”the intrinsic value of Buffett”，也讓我有機會從內而外認識一位史上最成功的投資家。
And here are some of my favorite quotes from the book:
以下是他在1999年 (.com/科技股如日中天的年代) Buffett在Sun Valley年度高峰會中，對眾多科技、媒體界大老版發表的壓軸談話，而實際內容更像是為全球網路創業家、網路股投資人所作的呼籲 (He was then criticized by media and some shareholders as the “old-fashioned guy” who missed the opportunity to make investments in Tech/Internet industries.)：
“There were two thousand auto companies: the most important invention, probably, in the fist half of twentieth century. It had an enormous impact on people’ lives. If you had seen at the time of the first cars how this country would develop in connection with autos, you would have said, ‘this is the place I must be.’ But of the two thousand companies, as of a few year ago, only three car companies survived. And at one time of another, all three were selling for less than book value, which is the amount of money that had been put into the company and left there.So autos had an enormous impact on America, but in the opposite direction on investors…”
“Now the other great invention of the first half of the century was the airplane. In this period of 1919 to 1939, there were about two hundred companies. Imagine if you can see the future of the airline industry back there at Kitty Hawk. You would have seen a world undreamed of. But assume you had the insight, and you saw all these people wishing to fly and visit their relatives or runaway from their relatives or whatever you do in an airplane, and you decide this was the place to be… As of a couple years ago, there had been zero money made from the aggregate of all stock investments in the airline industry history.”
“It’s wonderful to promo new industries, because they are very promotable. It’s very hard to promote investment in a mundane product. It’s much easier to promote an esoteric product, even particularly on with losses, because there’s no quantitative guideline.”
- The Snowball, P18 - P19
以上三段話，台下audience聽在耳裡應該是感到有些逆耳 (台下聽眾有Amazon的Jeff Bezos, Yahoo的Jerry Yang, Bill Gates, Andy Grove, Steve Jobs等科技巨擘)，但一年多後也證明歷史總是一再重複，甚至壓縮重複演出的時間。
