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Archive for February, 2009

說巧不巧,幾小時前到波克夏官網查2006致股東信,當時還沒看到2008年的連結,沒想到短短幾小時內竟然隨著年報一起update了( ?!)

 

今年不論是波克夏的財報,或巴菲特的致股東信都反映了經濟態勢,媒體為了搶眼球數,給的標題很直接:“Berkshire Hathaway has worst year on record”、"Buffett accepts blame and faults others"、"Buffett Says Economy Will Be ‘In Shambles’ for 2009"

 

節錄幾段:

 

當78歲的巴菲特說出someting “I have never before witnessed”, 代表事情真的是,大條了:

 

A freefall in business activity ensued, accelerating at a pace that I have never before witnessed. The U.S. - and much of the world - became trapped in a vicious negative-feedback cycle. Fear led to business contraction, and that in turn led to even greater fear.”

 

巴菲特在信中坦承在2008年下了些笨決策。但這並非先例,過去他也曾多次在信中向股東「暢談」自己搞砸了哪些投資部位:

 

During 2008 I did some dumb things in investments. I made at least one major mistake of commission and several lesser ones that also hurt. … Furthermore, I made some errors of omission, sucking my thumb when new facts came in that should have caused me to re-examine my thinking and promptly take action.”

 

"I in no way anticipated the dramatic fall in energy prices that occurred in the last half of the year…"

 

"I still believe the odds are good that oil sells far higher in the future than the current $40-to-$50 price. But so far I have been dead wrong. Even if prices should rise, moreover, the terrible timing of my purchase has cost Berkshire several billion dollars."

 

衍伸性金融商品讓他頭痛到得吃阿斯匹靈:

 

“Improved ‘transparency’ — a favorite remedy of politicians, commentators and financial regulators for averting future train wrecks — won’t cure the problems that derivatives pose. I know of no reporting mechanism that would come close to describing and measuring the risks in a huge and complex portfolio of derivatives. Auditors can’t audit these contracts, and regulators can’t regulate them. When I read the pages of "disclosure" in 10-Ks of companies that are entangled with these instruments, all I end up knowing is that I don’t know what is going on in their portfolios (and then I reach for some aspirin).”

 

他也先為後世財經史學家下好了註解,並提醒史學家別忘了記上一筆2009年政府公債泡沫:

 

When the financial history of this decade is written, it will surely speak of the Internet bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the early 2000s. But the U.S. Treasury bond bubble of late 2008 may be regarded as almost equally extraordinary.

 

信中還是有正面信心喊話:

 

"Amid this bad news, however, never forget that our country has faced far worse travails in the past. In the 20th Century alone, we dealt with two great wars (one of which we initially appeared to be losing); a dozen or so panics and recessions; virulent inflation that led to a 211⁄2% prime rate in 1980; and the Great Depression of
the 1930s, when unemployment ranged between 15% and 25% for many years. America has had no shortage of challenges."

 

Without fail, however, we’ve overcome them. In the face of those obstacles – and many others – the real standard of living for Americans improved nearly seven-fold during the 1900s, while the Dow Jones Industrials rose from 66 to 11,497. Compare the record of this period with the dozens of centuries during which humans secured only tiny gains, if any, in how they lived. Though the path has not been smooth, our economic system has worked extraordinarily well over time. It has unleashed human potential as no other system has, and it will continue to do so. America’s best days lie ahead.

 

 

 

 

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「出於本能會發現、迴避重大風險的人物,從來不曾碰過重大風險的人才,也在其中之列。」成功出線的人選必須展現「獨立的思考能力、情緒穩定性,而且深入了解人性與機構行為。」

 

- 巴菲特也會犯的錯 (Event Buffett Isn’t Perfect) , p.178

 

Over time, markets will do extraordinary, even bizarre, things. A single, big mistake could wipe out a long string of successes. We therefore need someone genetically programmed to recognize and avoid serious risks, including those never before encountered. Certain perils that lurk in investment strategies cannot be spotted by use of the models commonly employed today by financial institutions.


Temperament is also important. Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior is vital to long-term investment success. I’ve seen a lot of very smart people who have lacked these virtues.

 

- Berkshire Hathaway Inc., 2006 Annual Shareholder Letter, p.16

 

The above, as basic traits of a qualified investor, rule universally. Those who can’t control their emotions and are clueless about organizational behaviors can’t, in the long run, survive in big corporations, needless to say being Buffett’s potential successors. We shall always stay aware that people’s perceptions of you is strongly correlated with your emotional appearance.

 

And remind your colleagues and friends, please.

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Too often, I hear about businesses that just might be a dream come true for their owners, but hardly for the people they seek to recruit or the customers they hope to snare. What do your prospects dream of? What would get them to wait in line? (source)

 

這讓我想起當初Bill Gates和Paul Allen創業時,除了是為了自己的夢想,也為一群熱愛迷你電腦的geek圓一個能獨立撰寫程式,不再被藍色巨人綁住的夢,

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I don’t want to wind up being known as the Jerry Yang of this market (Internet/Search/Advertising),” said Ballmer, 52. “That whole episode left me understanding how shareholders can get frustrated with managements who aren’t serious about performance.” (source)

 

能操能算真用兵,快人快語真英雄。橫批:股東無敵。

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SMO (社群媒體最佳化?) 的練功心法有6招,聽Wikipeida大神講,SMO是由Rohit Bhargava這個人率先提出

 

  1. Increase your linkability
  2. Make tagging and bookmarking easy
  3. Reward inbound links
  4. Help your content travel
  5. Encourage the mashup
  6. Get communities connected

 

雖然有幾項講得實在太模糊了,但整體來說也算是給新手一個實踐方向。其中第3招 – reword inbound links 效果應該最快速顯著。畢竟會在social media做最佳化的多是行銷活動,只要把預算撥一部分送送虛擬或實體giveaway,鼓勵大家多串連不會太難。

 

另外要記得,像Facebook、MySpace這類型網站,傾向於不開放讓搜尋引擎爬站內的任何內容,畢竟有隱私權考量。那天網友搜尋某知名夜店時,發現你喝醉和同性友人玩親嘴大冒險的照片,那可就不太妙了。所以不同於一般SEO,SMO設計inbound link building strategy時,考量重心應純粹放在如何增加連結直接點選率,暫時忘記搜尋引擎能加分的部份。

 

既然社群網站有設立「搜尋壁壘」的傾向,那倒不如把整個社群網站當成一個平台,專門研究如何做”on-site search optimization”。我相信類似的domain knowledge正在累積當中,說不定2010年前後,我們就會看到一堆書在講:如何針對Facebook的站內搜尋做最佳化。(我們先衷心期待FB壟斷美國人和歐洲人的網路生活吧!)

 

有趣的是,當SMO最初5大心法被拿出來討論之後,又有一堆熱血Bloggers補充第7到第16條SMO守則:

 

7. Reward helpful and valuable users

8. Participate

9. Know how to target your audience

10. Create content

11. Be real

12. Don’t forget your roots, be humble

13. Don’t be afraid to try new things, stay fresh

14. Develop a SMO strategy

15. Choose your SMO tactics wisely

16. Make SMO part of your process and best practices

 

這種東西真是各說各話,甚至後面幾條建議有灌水的嫌疑…第13, 14, 15, 16點,也未免太common sense了…

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Validation

 

和朋友吃了一頓飯,聊到台灣VC現況,她告訴我看了這麼多案例後,深深覺得entrepreneur投入任何venture前,應該花費更多時間在”validate the idea”。一個打從一開始就不work的idea,一旦做下去,浪費的不只是你的時間、VC的時間、也連累了這間公司的員工(和家庭)。

 

這讓我想起Wall Street流傳的一句話:” Any bad ideas start out as good ideas.

 

夢想不一定要以enterprise的方式實現;夢想不一定非賺錢不可;夢想需要你在清醒時,多想想值不值得在現實生活中讓它成真。

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前些日子看完2008年12月才上市的中文版Second Lives: A Journey Through Virtual World (中譯:第二人生) (英文版2008年2月上市),不禁讓我懷疑目前Second Life的熱門程度到底還剩下多少?根據以下的走勢圖來看,我猜測原作者Tim Guest開始動筆寫書時,正逢報章媒體爭相報導SL的高峰期,當然也就是泡破破掉的前夕(徵兆?),等到本書付梓時,Second Life的website reach rate/seach volume都已經不到當時的一半。

 

ps. User是透過client login到SL的世界,所以以下數據不一定代表絕對的new registers或active users數量增減。但已足以反應趨勢。

 

image 

 

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我來回憶一下2006, 2007年最夯的幾個 Enterprise + Second Life 相關議題:

 

1. 企業到 Second Life 推廣品牌 (含一般廣告置入、虛擬品牌產品)

2. 企業到 Second Life 招開虛擬公司會議、虛擬記者會

3. 企業到 Second Life 設立分公司(含辦公大樓建築、客服中心、接待處、銷售門市等等)

 

大家在 First Life 變窮,相對於 Second Life 好像也變得比較興致缺缺。如果下一個網路世代真的是Virtual World,那現在勇於切入經營 (或說是勇於認識?) 虛擬國度的企業,將會是下一波景氣回復時的贏家。

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本日佳句 - 第二人生

生活在富裕的西方世界,我們有時會忘記許多生活經驗本身就很虛擬。車裡聽的廣播,耳機傳送的音樂,回家時打開的電視,甚至是閱讀的書籍與報紙,都是在模仿人類的陪伴。我們可以選購和下載電影、音樂和書籍、觀賞線上電視、戴上耳機聽廣播。我們以自我為中心,利用科技選擇世界各地的知名人士相伴,卻忽略的身旁的普通人

 

– 第二人生 (Second Lives), p.38

 

玩線上遊戲的理由千百種,寂寞是其中之一。

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在做一些關於Google PageRank的study時,發現這一段:

 

PageRank was developed at Stanford University by Larry Page (hence the name Page-Rank[3]) and later Sergey Brin as part of a research project about a new kind of search engine.

- source: Wikipedia on PageRank

 

所以PageRank中文我們不能叫做網頁排名法,要叫做佩吉排名法。(?!)

 

也趁精神好時,看一下一般人應該不會有興趣的簡化版PageRank演算法公式 (alert,這只是簡化版,較完整的版本還要加上調整係數,和random surfer的概念…)

 

image 

 

PR(X)代表網站X的PageRank值,L(X)代表網站X的對外連結數量。由簡化公式可得,一個網站的PageRank值,來自於每個連結到此站的網頁PageRank值除以此網頁的對外連結數加總。

 

或請出西格馬大叔來進一步簡化公式:

image

 

用人類語言來說,就是先假設全宇宙只有A、B、C、、D四個網頁,其中網頁B、C、D各有一個對外連結連到網頁A。依照最原先PageRank的定義,網頁A的PageRank值,來自於網頁B、C、D個別的PageRank值加總。但網頁B、C、D貢獻的PageRank值還會被其他同樣在B、C、D網頁內的對外連結削弱,也就是說,假如網頁B除了有一個對外連結,連到網頁A,還有另外2個對外連結分別連到C與D,此時,網頁B貢獻給網頁A的PageRank值就要除以對外連結的總數,也就是除以3 (網頁B共有連到網頁A、網頁C、網頁D等3個對外連結)。

 

所以這個故事告訴我們:

 

1. 在一個網頁中,放很多out-going links,對自己站的SEO不會有太大影響 (incomming links仍大大影響網頁的authority分數),但對於網站貢獻出去的PageRank值則有影響。

2. Google核心競爭力,建立在無人能攻破的演算法之上,想透過網路獲利或創業,你可也先想想是否也同樣有三兩三,再來考慮是否上梁山。

 

ps. PageRank只是Google評估一個網站搜尋結果排名的因素之一(畢竟PR值只有0到10,一堆同樣集中在2或3的網頁仍需要其他參數來分結果先後,但PR仍是一個決定性的因素),其他推估影響網站搜尋引擎排名的因素,可以參考這個SEO影響因素一覽表

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Tastemakers

Imagine this: the evolution of a guy (undead?!) who sell products and services throughout a couple of centuries: from a seller to a marketer to a influencer to a evangelist to a tastemaker.

 

Did you eat Apple by the way?

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幹行銷這行很難有批判的能力,因為成功的經驗告訴我們,總是要在一種趨勢逐漸紅起來時,抓住,搭上順風車,如此就能順水推舟,輕鬆把想傳遞的訊息打中大眾一窩蜂的羊群心理。

 

這就造成了我們總在尋找best practices的習慣 - 總是要等別人做過了,成功了,我們才跟著上轎。

 

這也難怪,因為打仗時,衝第一個的往往成為砲灰。marketing expense也像投資,禁不起投入未知、未成熟領域的風險。

 

但任何趨勢、潮流、總會有個帶頭的吧?所以我可以這樣說嗎?95%的marketer都是me-too marketer,只有5%的marketer是reckless marketer?

 

如果只是看書上課,我們永遠都是在學習5% reckless marketer的 best practices,永遠都在當95%的me-too marketer。98%的報酬都被前者拿光了,2%報酬分給書商和老師,剩下的100%風險,留給95%剛跟上熱潮的你、我、他。

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身為領導者,需要有一個謙遜的靈魂,外加一顆僕人的心。

領導者並不是問題的解決者,而是問題的給予者。

 

看完第二次QBQ - 問題背後的問題一書,印象最深刻的就是上面這兩句話 (似乎跟QBQ核心精神沒有太大關係,我的本日佳句filter好像只過濾我有興趣的議題…)。

 

這本書其餘部份都繞著”personal accountability” 演繹,用個新鮮的詞兒(QBQ: The Question Behind The Question)包裝一個老生長談,但對職場新鮮人來說,重要的觀念。

 

像QBQ這類書籍,或是MBA課程,目的都是為了訓練出好員工 (而不是革命家、夢想家、創業家) - 也就是,訓練出行為更有可預期性同質性兼容性的好員工。因為,當員工都具備商業勵志書籍倡導的特質時,組織才有辦法盡可能排除「人類本性」的因素,成為有效率的機器。

 

無論如何,最後的受益者,當然是幫這部機器加油打蠟的投資人。下回被套牢時,檢討可以多一項:早知道就拿這些賠掉的錢買個幾千本QBQ送給某某某公司的全體員工看了…

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image

 

He’s clicking on the “follow” button while I was listening to a lecture mentioned how Twitter is changing the way of marketing today…Should I not be thrilled?

 

Guy Kawasaki’s blog is one of the few I’m still following after several “great purges” in previous years.

 

So, who is Guy?

 

1. The Most influential (most-retweeted) Twitter-er by Forbes

2. Former Apple Evangelist, responsible for marketing Macintosh 1.0

3. Said to be the first that came up with the idea of “product-evangelism”

 

And more.

 

He may well need good luck to see my tweets out of his 70K+ following profiles. And I was lucky enough to be seen by him out of his ?????? daily following tweets. Interesting. : D

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I am all for trying to protect the small inventor, but solo inventor who does not commercialize his/her technology does not bring nearly as much economic value (and jobs) to our society as the entrepreneur who actually takes the risk, starts the company, hires people, commercializes the technology, raises the necessary capital, and builds lasting sustainable value. (source)

 

商.業.化.三個字對一些人來說就像是會玷污人類[原始][高貴][情操]的…醬油,噢,別沾了,換個口味想想吧:商業化能快速把發明、創新的經濟價值回饋到社會。商業化讓價值的原持有人(賣方)有了動力把價值轉手讓出,商業化也讓價值的追尋者(買方)珍惜付出成本後所獲得的結果。一來一往, 前者是促進資源消費,後者是減少資源浪費。

 

支持開放原始碼暨想讓世界變更好的熱血才俊們可加減參考以上解盤,看就好,喜歡再下單。

 

Though this blog is powered by WordPress…

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本書最後3.5頁堪稱菁華,透過感性筆調完整呈現了Warren Buffett’s business of life。你可能沒有時間再重讀一次這本磚塊書,但最後這個段落,值得在雪球滾累時重拾回味。

 

When Warren was a little boy fingerprinting nuns and collecting bottle caps, he had no knowledge of what he would someday become. Yet as he rode his bike through Spring Valley, flinging papers day after day, and raced through the halls of The Westchester, pulse pounding, trying to make his deliveries on time, if you had asked him if he wanted to be the richest man on earth – with his whole heart, he would have said, Yes.

 

That passion had led him to study a universe of thousands of stocks. It made him borrowed into libraries and basements for records nobody else troubled to get. He sat up nights studying hundreds of thousands of numbers that would glaze anyone else’s eyes. He read every word of several newspapers each morning and sucked down the Wall Street Journal like his morning Pepsi, then Coke. He dropped in on companies, spending hours talking about barrels with the woman who ran the outpost of Grief Bros. Cooperage or auto insurance with Lorimer Davidson. He read magazines like the Progressive Grocer to learn how to stock a meat department. He stuffed the backseat of his car with Moody’s Manuals and ledgers on his honeymoon. He spent months reading old newspapers dating back a century to learn the cycles of business, the history of Wall Street, the history of capitalism, the history of the modern corporation. He followed the world of politics intensely and recognized how it affected business. He analyzed economic statistics until he had a deep understanding of what they signified. Since childhood, he had ready every biography he could find of people he admired, looking for the lessons he could leaned from their lives. he attached himself to everyone who could help him and coattailed anyone he could find who was smart. He ruled out paying attention to almost anything but business – art, literature, science, travel, architecture – so that he could focus on his passion. He defined a circle of competence to avoid making mistakes. To limit risk he never used any significant amount of debt. He never stop thinking about business, what made a good business, what made a bad business, how they competed, what make customers loyal to one versus another. He had an unusual way of turning problems around in his head, which gave him insight nobody else had. He developed a network of people – for the sake of his friendship as well as his sagacity – not only helped him but also stayed out of his way when he wanted them to. In hard times or easy, he never stopped thinking about way to make money. And all of his energy and intensity became the motor that  powered his innate intelligence, temperament and skills.

 

Warren Buffer was a man who loves money, a man for whom the game of collecting it ran in his veins as his lifeblood. That love kept him going: buying little stocks like National America, selling GEICO to have to money to buy something cheaper, pushing at the boards of the companies like Sanborn Map to do the right thing for the shareholders. It had made him independent and competitive enough to want his own partnership and say no to the chance to be a junior partner to run Ben Graham’s old firm. It made him tough enough to shut down Dempster’s distribution center and fire Lee Dimon; it gave him the determination to break Seabury Stanton. It had tamed his impatience and made him listen when Charlie Munger insisted they buy great businesses, even though listing to other people against his very grain. It stiffened his will to survive the SEC investigation of Blue Chip and to break the strike at the Buffalo News. It made him an implacable acquirer. It also made him to lower his standards from time to time when his turf dried up. Yet it saved him from serious losses by keeping him from abandoning his margin of safety.

 

Warren Buffet was a timid man who shied from confrontation and needed people to cushion him from life’s rougher edges. His fear was personal, not financial; he was never timid when it comes to money. His passionate yearning to be rich gave him the courage to ride his bicycle past the house with the awful dog and throw those last few newspapers in Spring Valley. It sent him to Columbia, seeking Ben Graham, after Harvard turned him down. It made put one foot in front of the other, calling on people at prescriptionist, while they rejected him over and over. It gave him the strength to return to Dale Carnegie after losing his courage the first time. It forced through the decisions in the Salomon crisis to make his great withdrawal from the Bank of Reputation. It lent him the dignity to face years of almost intolerable criticism without counterattacking during the Internet Bubble. He had spent his life contemplating, limiting, and avoiding risk, but in the end he was braver then he realized himself.

 

Warren Buffett would never call himself courageous; he would cite his energy, focus, and temperament. Above all, he would describe himself as a teacher. All his adult like to had sought to live up to the values in him by his father: He said that Howard taught him that the “how” matters more than the “how much”. To hold his ruthlessness in check wasn’t an easy lesson for him. It helped that he was fundamentally honest – and he was possessed by the urge to preach. “He deliberately limited his money,” says Munger. “Warren would have made a lot more money if he hadn’t been carrying all those shareholders and had maintained the partnership longer, taking an override.” Compounded over thirty-three years, the extra money would have been worth many billions – tens of billions – to him. He could have bought and sold the businesses inside Berkshire Hathway with a cold calculation of their financial return without considering how he felt about the people involved. He could have become a buying king. He could have promoted and lent his name to all sorts of ventures. “In the end, ” says Munger, “he didn’t want to do it. He was competitive, but he was never just rawly competitive with no ethics. He wanted to live life a certain way, and it gave him a public record and a public platform. And I would argue that Warren’s life was worked out better this way.”

 

It was the will to share what he knew in an act of sheer generosity that made him spend months writing his annual letter to the shareholders; his joy in showmanship that made him want a mobile home at his shareholder meeting; his pixieish sense of fun that led him to endorse a mattress. It was his Inner Scorecard that made him cling to his margin of safety. It was pure love that turned him into what Munger called “a learning machine.” It was his handpicking skill that let him use the knowledge to figure out what the future might bring. It was his urge to preach that made him want to warn the world of dangers to come.

 

When Warren reached his seventy-seventh birthday, he mused that he had lived one-third of the lifespan of the United States, His age weighed on him; it was getting harder for him to read all day long the way he used to, since one of his eyes was getting a little weak. So he read more efficiently, He had finally gave in and agreed to wear hearing aids. His voice turned gravelly faster then it once did. He tired more easily. But his business judgment was still quick and sharp. He wished he could have the next ten years’ worth newspapers delivered to his doorstep right now. The years ahead weren’t endless, but with luck they could be long. Trees don’t grow to the sky, but he wasn’t scraping the horizon yet. Another new person, another investment, another idea always waited for him. The things left to learn far exceeded what he already knew.

 

“The snowball just happens if you’re in the right kind of snow, and that what happened with me. I don’t just mean compounding money either. It’s in terms of understanding the world and what kind of friends you accumulate. You get to select over time, and you’ve got to be the kind of person that the snow wants to attach itself to. you’ve got to be your own wet snow, in effect. You’d better be picking up snow as you go along, because you’re not going to be getting back up to the top of the hill again. That’s the way life works.”

The snowball he had created so carefully was enormous by now. Yet his attitude toward it remained the same. However many birthdays lay ahead, he would always be astonished each time the calendar turned, and as long as he lived, he would never stop feeling like a sprout. For he wasn’t looking backward to the top of the hill. It was a big world, and he was just starting out.

 

The Snowball, Warren Buffett and the Business of Life, P. 827 ~ P. 830

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市場先生

明明retail sales number出現7個月來第一次正成長(1%),DJIA一開盤還掉到7723點。

 

趁市場先生歇斯底理時狠狠敲他一筆竹槓吧。

 

Equity markets resumed their slide on Thursday despite a report that showed an unexpected jump in U.S. retail sales.

Sales increased 1.0% in what was the first rise in seven months. Economists were expecting a 0.8% contraction. Retail sales excluding autos grew 0.9% in the month against expectations for a 0.4% decline, according to advance estimates released from the Department of Commerce. (source)

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雖然你沒時間傾聽,但還是要裝作一副有在聽的樣子。

 

不論是經營品牌帳號、產品帳號、或是個人帳號,我想follow everyone who follows you是一種「傾聽」態度的表現。縱使經營者根本就沒興趣去看(或回應)大家的碎碎念。換個角度想想:如果你今天一起床開電腦,發現最喜愛的品牌正在follow你,thrilled, aren’t you?

 

image_thumb1

 

西拉蕊的幕僚(或西拉蕊本人)可能比較不喜歡吵鬧。

(source: Hubspot’s Twitter 101 Webcast)

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A company blog - even one that talks about customers in the traditional case study’ way - will still be greeted with skepticism - because of the motives behind it. We all judge the speaker by what they have to gain by our listening to them. – by Commenter, Dana Theus (source)

 

值得深思。因為blog reader不是笨蛋,笨蛋比較容易上置入性廣告的當,但你的流量如果都來自笨蛋 — 那也幫不了你什麼 — 除非歷史告訴我們:笨蛋都很有錢。(不好意思以上用詞直接了點 XD )

 

image

 

根據Forrest Research 2008 Q2調查,超過80%美國受訪者不信任企業部落格

 

話說回來,這年頭,「不信任」不等於「不看」或「不留意」。台灣人都說不信任政治人物,但是政論節目加減看的還是不少。我也不太信任整天拍成功人士(&賺錢企業)馬屁的財經雜誌,更不信任雜誌上粉飾門面的廣編稿,但我閒來無事還是加減看

 

That’s why you should continue your endeavor on corporate blogs. Don’t give up. Bored people plus their skepticism generate your valuable readership.

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創新的行銷手法不一定要發生在網路上。在舊市場喊水會結凍的influencer影響不了新市場。想擄獲新市場的心,就得先找出新市場的影響力核心。想打入女性鄰居市場,先討好婆婆媽媽們就對了。

On a recent Saturday, about 1,000 women across the country moonlighted as marketers for Microsoft’s newest Xbox services.

House cleaners, hairdressers, guidance counselors and IT technicians got a $150 pack of Xbox freebies for opening their homes to at least 10 friends or relatives…

They got an Xbox party pack of freebies that included microwaveable popcorn, Xbox trivia game "Scene It? Box Office Smash," an Xbox universal media remote control, a three-month subscription to Xbox Live, and 1,600 Xbox Live points (used for game, movie and TV show purchases).

"We’ve sold 20 million consoles to date globally since we launched three years ago," says Heather Snavely, Microsoft’s director of interactive entertainment business global platforms. "In order to get to the next 20 million, we need to get a new audience of women and teens. We’re going after them in ways that are different than ways we’ve done before." (source)

 

然而這樣的創意恐怕只能在美國 - 一個擁有有多元化服務的國家才有機會落實。畢竟這個想法也是透過一家叫做House Party的公司,來專門執行”Home Party Marketing”類型的案子。

Xbox found women including Maldonado and Chicago-area resident Danielle Jamil through a service called House Party, which sets up home parties for marketers. House Party has a database of 100,000 names of people who have provided a profile of personal information and who want to be "brand advocates." The advocates host a preplanned party to show off the marketer’s brand to their friends

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Graham刪減1973年修訂版”The Intelligent Investor”第19章:”Shareholders and Managements”,把原本(1949年版)34頁的份量刪到剩下8頁。不見的一部分,是關於shareholder應actively行使”the investor as business owner”權益的討論 - 經過24年的倡議,Graham坦承以現實情況來說,individual investor (散戶) 根本無法(某方面來說也是懶得)行使監督或影響企業治理的權利。所以他「放棄」了這部份的探討。

 

以下節錄自1949年版19章原文開頭:

“In theory, the stockholders as a class are king. Acting as a majority they can hire and fire managements and bend them completely to their will. But, in practice, the shareholders are a complete washout. As a class they show neither intelligence nor alertness. They vote in sheeplike fashion for whatever the management recommends and no matter how poor the management’s record of accomplishment may be…The only way to inspire the average American shareholders to take any independently intelligent action would be by exploding a firecracker under him…We cannot resist pointing out the paradoxical fact that Jesus seems to have been a more practical businessman than are American shareholders.” 

- P. 497, The Intelligent Investor, Chapter 19 Commentary, Jason Zweig, 2003 Ed. Original Texts: Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor, Chapter 19, 1949 Ed.

 

Graham 40年前放棄了,因為當時沒有網路可以把individual investor的力量連結起來。但現在可不同了,我覺得如果以下3點如果水到渠成,散戶還是有可能發揮影響力的:

 

1. 開發一套web service讓investor建議、投票、連署

2. 政府相關單位為這套service與user行為的法律效益背書

3. 企業尊重(必要時需強制遵守)平台上小散戶集體的決議

 

當然各項建議從起草到通過的過程,需要設定相當高的門檻 (如多階段,一定比例的票數),以防外行領導內行,或是又回到只為少數人(法人機構、持股大戶)謀利益的老作法。

 

現在大多美國企業都用webcast的方式進行earnings call了。用virtal event的方式進行股東大會不是夢想,是已經在發生的事。實體股東大會有座位限制,但線上股東大會就沒有這個問題。不過空間問題解決,時間限制還在(就算進行8小時webcast,也無法讓每位線上與會股東有機會發言)。所以現在我們只差一個可用時間換取空間的中介平台(我上面提到的web service,投資人可以花半年時間在平台上辯論、修整某一項提議),讓多數人(有建設性)的聲音事先被彙整,在線上股東會那天,所有股東與管理團隊只要進行最終的投票、確認等動作即可。

 

這樣一來,還在罵公司經營不善,把成長股搞成地雷股的散戶,就只能怪自己懶惰了。說真的,就算沒有上述的服務,小散戶還是有很多機會參與決策,但股東會通知單願意多看兩眼的有幾人?曾行使委任代理投票權的有幾人?

 

PS. 在Google上搜尋 “webcast earnings call”,相信Graham也會讚嘆科技的力量 :

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Hubsopt製作的半小時Webcast,教marketer如何快速上手Tiwtter:

 

 

用4種譬喻來告訴老闆什麼是Twitter:

1. 寫Twitter就像是寫部落格,但一篇最多只能140字

2. 更新Twitter就像是更新MSN狀態,但會有很多人看得見

3.當你用上癮後,Twitter就會像聊天室

4.Twitter也像即時通,只是所有紀錄都會被(搜尋引擎)記錄下來

image

 

兩個實用連結:

Twitter Grader: http://twitter.grader.com/ (影響力評分引擎)

Twitter Search: http://search.twitter.com/ (監看特定關鍵字)

 

即時監看Twitter關鍵字: Microsoft (可惜目前語言過濾沒有中文,是使用者不夠多嗎?)

image

 

Twitter Apps一覽表:

http://twitter.pbwiki.com/Apps

 

因為open API的關係,光是Twitter desktop / mobile clients就有眼花撩亂的選擇,更不用說和其他服務mash-up的結果。

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把股票走勢圖丟到SongSmith裡面合成編輯,會變成怎樣的一首歌呢? 答案在以下影片:

一個禮拜就超過16萬人次觀看啊!

 

我想這是一個很有趣的現象,也是做為flexible platform的優勢。如果要就平台或工具本身(boring)推廣很難,但如果這個平台上哪天突然有個玩家突發奇想,搞個content / application一炮而紅,平台或工具也就能搭上順風車。

 

報導用”developed cult papularity”來形容這股小眾熱潮。什麼是cult呢?依照我年幼的認知,就是非主流,但在小眾市場有一群高忠誠度fans的特定文化。Wikipedia的解釋如下:

Cult followings are often dedicated enough that many people of similar interest are familiar with one another due to convention gatherings, concerts, message boards, Internet chat rooms, word of mouth, or shops featuring related items. These dedicated followings are usually relatively small and pertain to items that don’t have broad mainstream appeal.

 

Cult following走到極端也就會出現瘋狂fans的行為,像是下面這支堪稱Youtube史上最有名的viral video始祖 – Star Wars Kids

 

或是熱愛到把電玩畫面直接搬到真實世界演出,例如真人版Final Fantasy VII戰鬥:

 

在這個領域做行銷,或是把一項產品經營成cult culture應該滿有成就感的 :D。

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一個人的價值公式

 

Businesses are worth the net present value of future cash flows.

換句話說,你我現在的價值就是:未來一輩子能賺到的金錢總額折回現值。這樣亂換好像也滿有道理。

 

現在從事的工作如果是薪水低,但未來較有發展(賺大錢潛力高),和現在從事的工作薪水高,但未來發展潛力小,選擇前者似乎比較有價值

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Middlemen 的目的是為了湊合兩個不易交集的市場 - 買方市場與賣方市場。

Consultancy service 的目的是為了將難以獲得的know-how傳遞給客戶。

 

廣告代理商 (and all marketiing agencies) 過去的核心價值就是以上兩點。Digital makerinig trend will make them cry.

 

when I can simpley search Google to find all media-buy info I needed, all the best practices, case studies I needed; when I can simpley hire in-house “a” group of new media geeks, marketing talents to take care of whole processes, how come I should leverage agencies?

 

No more commission expenses.

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IAS:
This disease affects people when their communication moves to digital, and the emotional cues of face-to-face interaction–including tone, facial expression and the so called “blush response”–are lost.

(source)

 

面對面溝通,有肢體表情、面部表情、和聲音表情當線索;透過電話溝通,還有聲音表情當線索;透過網路(文字)溝通,大概只剩當下情緒過去經驗當線索。線索越少時,人的心理狀態和反應行為就越趨近原始(動物)本能。於是網路小白就這樣誕生了。

***

從事digital marketing,溝通線索往往也侷限在文字與圖片,(影片例外),線索越少,就越不能期待受聽眾有理性反應。這恐怕也是為什麼令人耳目一新的campaign對刺激衝動型消費比較有效 - 透過感官去激發出動物本能。但如果溝通手法只為引發一時衝動性call-to-action,對需要長時間耕耘的產品或服務幫助不大。

 

性感的Ms. Dewey就引起了很多人的衝動 - 試用Live Search的衝動,但看看流量圖,彷彿也像一股衝動,上去後不久就下來了,然後趴在那邊。這就是大師最喜歡掛在嘴邊的create buzz, buzz marketing。

 

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1. Marketer根本就不是那個平台的active user,甚至根本連帳號都沒註冊過

2. Crowded Intelligence可以很輕易識破廣告

3. 媒體過度炒作,造成過高的預期。連記者編輯也是用觀察者,不是使用者的角度在唱高調

 

想想第一點想想第一點。你剛搬進某社區不到三天就想選里長,會有居民願意投票給你嗎?

 

不過說來諷刺,當你在某個社群經營出一定的reputation之後,恐怕就不會輕易想用這個identity來為特定立場背書了。

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