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Archive for March, 2009

Microsoft added support for automatic mood detection in Windows Live Messenger. “We’re happy to announce that due to the great breakthroughs from Microsoft Research, we have an alpha version working that monitors your real-time physiological state and translates that into a mood (happy, sad, anxious, etc), such that you would never have to enter an emoticon again.” (source)

 

感謝微軟研究院 (MSR) 學者博士們不眠不休地研發,一個號稱 ”Human Attitude Heuristic Algorithm” 的演算法終於問世。第一個實務運用就是 Windows Live Messenger 2009 即將新增的情緒偵測功能。

 

MSN情緒偵測模式能即時追蹤你聊天時的心理狀態,並自動將結果轉換為對應的表情符號,省去點選/輸入表情符號的時間。例如:webcam 偵測到你笑的表情,就會自動在對話中幫你加上:),偵測到你吐舌頭(?!),就會幫你加上:P,麥克風偵測到你大笑,就會自動幫你加上:D,鍵盤偵測到你輸入速度越來越快,也會幫你的對話補上痛苦或緊張的表情。( 不知偵測到哪種緒才會出現台灣人專用表情 — XD )

 

 

往年好像都是G公司Y公司玩這些把戲玩比較大。愚人節惡搞新聞稿想必是個不錯的PR機會。也可以藉此看出冷冰冰大公司難得的「人味 (personality) 」

 

愚人節產品發表也能反映區域文化色彩,像是Google China (谷歌中國),就推出了十分帶有中國特色笑點 (囧) 的愚人節產品

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你猜到了:Wikipedia

Encarta has been a popular product around the world for many years. However, the category of traditional encyclopedias and reference material has changed. People today seek and consume information in considerably different ways than in years past. As part of Microsoft’s goal to deliver the most effective and engaging resources for today’s consumer, it has made the decision to exit the Encarta business. (source: Encarta website FAQ)

比爾蓋茲在 <擁抱未來, The Road Ahead> 一書中(1995),曾經反覆提到光碟加百科全書就像是撒尿蝦和牛丸的結合一樣有搞頭。如今再次驗證了計畫趕不上變化,變化趕不上聽話這句話。但說到底,微軟還是一間能捨能放的公司。 Sometimes, winners do quit.

 

這也讓我想起周杰倫感人歌曲 - 聽媽媽的話

聽 ~ user 的 ~ 話,別讓股東受傷~

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Almost everyone’s initial plan is broken. If companies stuck to their initial plans, Microsoft would be selling programming languages, and Apple would be selling printed circuit boards. In both cases their customers told them what their business should be– and they were smart enough to listen. – P.G.

 

變化趕不上聽話

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我特別喜歡這句:“I’m just not cool enough to be a Mac person.” (片中女主角逛了Apple店之後發現東西都超貴爆預算所說出的話。)

 

就是這句話讓這支AD在美國部落圈廣為流傳,什麼都是假的,只有省錢是真的!哈哈。既然常常被虧,那不如跳出來自己虧自己,幽默自嘲人人愛啊!

 

btw, I’m a PC 之可愛4.5歲妹妹篇也值得一看。

 

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企業成立行銷部門不一定對大眾有益,但政府單位成立 國際行銷部門,向全球推廣「來我們國家旅遊」這項產品,才是把人民的納稅錢燒到對的地方。

 

最近韓國 Seoul Festival 2009 (捷運) 廣告打得很兇,相信大家多少都有印象,現在連CNN上都看得到 (全球大老闆們,時機歹歹,快來我們韓國首爾散散心,花花錢吧!):

 

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連到 landing page,你會驚訝滴發現出現的是繁體中文網站 (自動偵測各來源IP國家,轉換到適合語言),上頭正在舉辦看影片,寫心得比賽,現已經有超過30頁台灣粉絲的留言了:

image

 

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以下是題外話:

 

如果把整個政府比喻為一家公司,對內來說,這家公司擁有最龐大的既有客戶資料庫 (全民,想像一下,在不違反法律的前提下,可以任意寄送 dm / edm ),以及最龐大的廣告inventories 資源 (道路、車站等公共建設,只要不違反法律,可在任何「留白」處宣傳尋息,還有一天到晚追著政府一舉一動的記者媒體,提供免費的新聞 PR),只要懂得利用,可以輕鬆 initiate 各種 nationwide campaign,讓人民做出你期望的行為。對外來說,這間公司的競爭對手是其他國家,其他國家的人民是潛在客戶。如果以「人才靜流入數量」來當國家經營成功的指標之一,那美國在這方面算是贏到了不少潛在客戶 。

 

這麼刺激的戰場,怎麼會無法吸引行銷人才來大玩一把呢?

 

我始終覺得,企業在行銷人才的取得上不虞匱乏,但政府,甚至是學校、藝文、慈善機構等組織一直無法透過有效資源 (包含人才) ,把比較有「理想性」、「非營利目的」的價值觀傳或訊息遞出去。追根究底,不外乎沒有架構行銷系統的意識 (e.g. 我們做的事情因為某某某種理由,不需要特別宣傳推廣啦)。不外乎官僚舊思維 (e.g. 啥?你說啥行銷,孟德斯鳩有說要做這件事嗎?),追根究底, 還是得向企業的行銷部門學習。

 

Marketing talents to be recruited: “Show me the commitment, and I’m in.”

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年紀真的有份量。摩斯漢堡爺爺 (Walter Mossberg) 就是那種長得很有智慧,說話慢慢的,聽他說什麼你都會很想相信的那種。不虧是開箱文界的泰斗啊!

 

摩斯漢堡爺爺個人小檔案:

  1. 從1970年起就在華爾街日報擔任記者與編輯。
  2. 1991年開始為華爾街日報撰寫 ”Personal Technology”  科技專欄,想必19年來教育了不少有「數位落差」的大老闆。
  3. 得過很多獎,拿過 University of Rhode Island 榮譽博士學位。
  4. Wired 雜誌曾稱他為 "The Kingmaker",他的評論專欄決定了不少科技產品 (甚至是產業?!) 的死活。
  5. 謠傳是目前華爾街日報薪資最高的journalist。
  6. 和現在已經變成矽谷內線天后的 Kara Swisher 共同主持 D: All Things Digital Conference,兩年前比爾蓋茲和賈伯斯就是在這個年度場合中坐在一起展開歷史性對談

 

WSJ 看似保守,但卻在 digital journalism 這塊有很多大膽作為。光看 All Things D 主筆文章的辛辣程度,以及 kara Swisher 把攝影機拿在手上晃來晃去的突擊式採訪影片就可略知一二。更不用講摩斯爺爺在家裡書房用 webcam 自拍的 product review 影片啦!

 

(2007年5月比爾蓋茲與賈伯斯在D5同台對談精華 (幽默)片段)

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Thank you young guys, you created tons of job opportunities (including mine), you made our life interesting, you disrupted the world once ruled by beauracrats.

 

let’s see the numbers in detail:

Founder Company Age at Founding
Bill Gates Microsoft 19
Paul Allen Microsoft 21
Steve Jobs Apple 20
Steve Wozniak Apple 25
Larry Page Google 24
Sergey Brin Google 24
Jerry Yang Yahoo! 26
David Filo Yahoo! 28
Mark Zuckerberg Facebook 19
Dustin Moskovitz Facebook 19
Chris Hughes Facebook 19
Chad Hurley YouTube 27
Steve Chen YouTube 26
Jawed Karim YouTube 25

 

* The average age: 23

* Two were born in Taipei, Taiwan

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Today’s news: Microsoft (MSFT), via its Federated Media ad network/platform/agency, is sponsoring a page that collects Tweets from various executives. Twitter will get an undisclosed payment for giving the site its stamp of approval and for promoting the site on Twitter itself. Federated says it plans on launching similar programs on Twitter with other clients. (source)

 

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你可以在這頁特製的 Twitter aggregator 中,找到各公司高級長官的 tweets。當然,別忘了看看你們公司是不是也已經 ”PeopleReady (for Twittering?!)” 。按一下中間上面的Banner 就可以知道答案。

 

Brilliant!

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Ever heard of Philo Farnsworth? He invented television. The reason you’ve never heard of him is that his company was not the one to make money from it. The company that did was RCA, and Farnsworth’s reward for his efforts was a decade of patent litigation.

– Paul Graham

 

這個故事告訴我們,以後只要聽到有人說「ooo 就是aaa公司發明的啊」,就該馬上停下手邊工作,向原發明人(團隊)默哀,向這間公司的行銷部門致敬。。

 

n年前聽說隨便找個台灣人問「什麼是網路?」還會有人回答,網路就是 (=) 雅虎奇摩阿!

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"Many who build technology think that a technology’s feature set is the key to its adoption and popularity.  With social media, this is often not the case.  There are triggers that drive early adopters to a site, but the single most important factor in determining whether or not a person will adopt one of these sites is whether or not it is the place where their friends hangout.  In each of these cases, network effects played a significant role in the spread and adoption of the site. …

 

Marketers know all about stickiness, but how many of you measure network density?  You purchase all sorts of data from Nielsen and comScore that tells you about uniques, but do you know anything about the cluster dynamics of the users?  Are you able to see when the network graph is reaching a sustainable point or, more importantly, when things are starting to fracture?  … We can’t role out cool new technologies if we can’t get cluster effects.  We don’t just need network effects to get things to spread; we also need to think in terms of complete clusters.  And we need to design with this in mind….

 

…Specific genres of social media may come and go, but these underlying properties are here to stay.  We won’t turn the clock back on these.  Social network sites may end up being a fad from the first decade of the 21st century, but new forms of technology will continue to leverage social network as we go forward.  If we get away from thinking about the specific technologies and focus on the properties and dynamics, we can see how change is unfolding before our eyes.  One of the key challenges is learning how to adapt to an environment in which these properties and dynamics play a key role.  This is a systems problem.  We are all implicated in it - as developers and policy makers, as parents and friends, as individuals and as citizens.”

 

(source: Danah Boyd’s Speechat Tech Fest)

 

Danah Boyd是微軟前幾年招募進MSR的學者,研究領域為新媒體,擅長從文化、行為、與社會學角度分析社群網站現象。看膩了媒體報導、研究報告,偶而從學術觀點瞭解社群網站在我們的生活 (或在我們的campaign) 所扮演的角色,有助於深入表象。

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Facebook is deliberately not taking a lot of the kind of normal brand advertising that a lot of Web sites will take. So you go to a company like Yahoo, which is another fantastic business, and they have got these, you know, banner ads and brand ads all over the place. Facebook has made a strategic decision to not take a lot of that business in favor of building its own sort of more organic business model, and it’s still in the process of doing that.(Facebook, YouTube, Twitter等目前被批為沒獨到獲利模式的熱門網站,其實只要心一橫,讓廣告無孔不入,就能賺到輕鬆錢。)

 

MARC ANDREESSEN: Twenty million people lined up in 1998 and decided they wanted to start using Napster to listen to music. If there had been a “buy the CD” button there or “buy the digital track,” it would been a gigantic new source of revenue for the music industry, and the music industry would be far healthier today. And so when you get huge numbers of people lining up to do something, in my view, you figure out how to take advantage of that. (音樂產業是一個創造潮流的產業,但只要扯上和business model有關的議題,就一點也跟不上潮流,甚至逆勢而為。全因為 音樂產業 / 唱片公司內部正由一群官僚當權。)

 

CHARLIE ROSE: How many networks do I want to belong to? There’s LinkedIn, there’s Facebook, there’s on and on and on and on. MARC ANDREESSEN: I would say how many things do you care about in your life? CHARLIE ROSE: Oh, man. MARC ANDREESSEN: How many things are you into, right? CHARLIE ROSE: I don’t want to belong to that many social networks (因為我們無法同時關注太多獨立的社群網絡,Social networking site發展到最後不是被一兩家壟斷 (telecom model),就是發展出百家爭鳴,但可輕易互通資料的龐大結構(Internet model)。)

 

So the big thing is, is mobile has arrived. And so you know, you have these technology trends that people talk about and talk about and talk about and talk about, and they never quite happen, and then all of a sudden, they happen, and they are a big deal. The Internet was like that. The Internet took off in ‘94, ‘95. The Internet has been getting built for 25 years up to that point, but it took off in ‘95. (中國人說,一件事情要有天時、地利、人和才能大成功;一種新科技也是如此。西元兩千年mobile網路應用被炒過一波,但那時頻寬與硬體技術都不夠稱頭,這次呢?關鍵性的硬體出現了沒?關鍵性的收費制度出現了沒?關鍵性的應用模式出現了沒?)

 

And then the other significant thing is, now that the iPhone is successful, it paves the way, much like the Macintosh paved the wave for Windows PCs, it paves the way for another set of companies, whether it’s Microsoft or RIM or, you know, dozens of others, or start-ups, to create new devices. ( XD 我也不知道說什麼好。)

 

That thing, I mean, the Kindle does books and magazines and newspapers, but that form factor and that shape of a device and that weight in a couple of years is going to be doing video, it’s going to be doing music, it’s going to be doing video conferencing. It’s going to be doing telephony. It’s going to be doing Web browsing. It’s going to be doing everything, right? And so that’s the next — one of the fascinating things is that’s the next screen size and the next killer device, I think, is what’s going to happen. (之前才聽說ASUS要暫時把注意力移開7吋小筆電,把未來一兩年重心放在10到12吋的螢幕機型。但Marc Andreessen 卻認為像Kindle那樣「穠纖合度」的「7吋薄片」,將有機會成為下一波行動裝置主流。我想他說的有可能會實現,但除非是這些平台跳過既有的作業系統 (?!) - 跳過這些操作介面、運算架構都是基於大螢幕,基於「個人電腦」設計的作業系統。站在未來數位裝置將朝specialized發展的立場來看,如果廠商口袋夠深,能重新開發出針對重要「應用情境最佳化」的作業系統,則螢幕不管大小,都能解決消費者嫌速慢,字太小、鍵盤太擠的怨念。)

 

And I actually think what we need — and I think the Valley can play a role in this — I think there should be a new wave of financial institutions that should be created from scratch today. And they should take the role. And so instead of trying to figure out how to unwind some big bank that’s under water and hundreds of billions of dollars insolvent, let’s create a whole bunch of new ones. And by the way, let’s have them all be new and online. So, instead of having all this physical infrastructure and all these old systems and all these ATMs and all this stuff, let’s do it purely online, purely Internet banks, purely virtual, much lower cost structure. (是時候該有個同時懂金融體系和網路產業的人出來開天闢地了。MintProsperZopa 只是consumer金融市場的一個起點。)

 

Full Video

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Windwos Mobile 6.5在使用者介面上做了滿大的改變。我特別喜歡「使用者一開手機會想要看到什麼」的思考方向。在WM 6.5,一按下電源,在鎖定螢幕的畫面中,你會看到大大的時間、緊接在下方的下一個行程,以及位於上方的重要通知圖示。按一下上方的通知圖示,你可以先預覽有多少通未接來電、未讀簡訊、未讀郵件等等。

 

 

 

操作上也大量利用了拖–拉的概念。start button按下去之後的蜂巢式(honycomb)圖示加大,上下滑動切換頁面流暢度提昇,也會自動在下一頁自動停下來。

image 

 

首頁Today畫面以大字體文字加拖拉光棒呈現,應該還滿適合單手操作。橫跨螢幕的光棒很重要,因為當以單手(右手)拿手機時,大拇指才能輕鬆在螢幕靠右處挑選功能。從此大拇指不必再為了按左上方的開始功能鍵ㄍ一ㄥ到抽筋。

image

 

選單也讓字體放大,更好按了。

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設計師在科技公司日後應該會扮演越來越重要的角色。說不定還會有公司設立CDO – Chief Design Officer 等級的高階職位。有趣的是,幾小時前,Google的首席設計師Doug Bowman才剛在自己的Blog公開因為受不了工程師”Data Driven”文化,憤而離職的消息。

 

ps. 這支在Mix09 Demo WM6.5的手機是HTC Touch Pro,台灣之光阿!

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Gmail Blog說以後放錯收件人、打錯字、忘記打主旨等「手滑」等級的失誤,現在都有解了。你可以在Gmail Lab (Eng) 中開啟這項新功能,日後寄出的信件,會有5秒delay時間,讓你取消寄送。不過5秒夠讓潛意識 (或反射神經) 通知大腦 something wrong 嗎?

 

Outlook 應該也可以加入這個功能,而且如果能設計成可自行設定延遲送出秒數,那應該可以減少許多 email 擦槍走火事件。畢竟很多人都是寄送鍵一按,心境一轉,氣就消了,但這時才後悔口氣下太重,一切都為時已晚。

 

偉哉科技,國家棟樑應該多朝這種輔助「人性缺陷」的方向,去思考下一個改變世界的發明。

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So I’ve become fond of an approach where the company pays management bonuses on "incremental year ove year ebitda." The way this works is you pick a base year and for the next year you pay management a bonus of x% of the incremental ebitda they generate. The best way to do this is a five year plan with a goal of obtaining a significant increase in ebitda so management has time to make the investments needed to get there. (source)

 

僅是基於當年財報營收、淨利來犒賞管理階層,恐怕會發生長官們只想短線操作,把原本該投資的expenses都省下來美化帳面。所以改用基於EBITDA成長百分比的方式派發紅利比較能長短兼顧。

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  5. 本日佳句 - Kevin Turner

It has been 513 calendar days since the stock market peaked on Oct. 9, 2007. Since then, the S.&P. 500 is down 56 percent and the Dow is off 53 percent. On Jan. 29, 1931—the identical number of days after the 1929 market peak—the S.&P. 500 was down 49 percent and the Dow was down 56 percent. The 1929 crash got off to a much faster start, but we have now more or less caught up (source)

 

我的想法:比較一下2008崩盤和1930年代大蕭條,最大不同之處,在於資訊的透明度與流通速度。這讓市場交易者更願意承擔風險、更敢嘗試投機、更有能力看穿老師的技倆,看透外資喊盤,看破媒體隨波逐流的習性。

 

會怎麼收尾沒人知道,但如果現在市場上掌握資訊的投機人比掌握資訊投資人還多,短期內應該沒機會打底。

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if social media sites want to find a way to monetize engagement, there needs to be some added value for the marketer. What that might mean for platforms is giving up some control over data (something that Facebook has been wrestling with) or the type of interactions that marketers are able to take part in. Eventually search engines found the right balance between commerce, control and user-friendliness, a balance that I believe social media sites will eventually strike. There will be some false starts to be sure but there is much to be gained for all parties –marketers, social media platforms, and users – in getting the balance right. (source)

 

如果身邊有經營社群的朋友,可以問問,hey,你們每天這樣日也操,眠也操,心中想的,是為使用者創造價值,還是為廣告主創造價值?

 

大部分 (我可以說全部嗎) 的 social networking sites 都是 build-for-users in mind,如此一來,天大地大 user 大,不敢惹衣食父母,只能靠 (non-intrusive?) 廣告來 drive revenue。大家吃飯的傢伙都一樣,久了就沒競爭力。對user太好,結果錢賺不飽。

 

那有沒有可能蓋一個 community site that is built for marketers in mind? 應該有,據我所知,時下已經有些社群論壇,專賣會員data base,或提供user behavior的資料給 marketer/ marketing agency。而且還會強調說,賣給第三方的資料,統統都是匿名。

 

不過…你敢到賣匿名病歷的醫院回診嗎?應該不會。可惜,根據我心中的七顆龍珠指示,這種假社群,真賣銀…喔不好意思手滑,是「假社群,真賣data銀彈」的網站會越開越多家 (以後招牌上可能還會寫:社群網站BI服務) 。沒辦法,你想買我就賣嘛,行銷一族強大的 demand 正排山倒海而來。

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不好意思,最近文章都跟Google有關。Google確定將七百六十四萬張員工的股票選擇權重新定價至$308.57,預估將有超過一萬五千名原本持有 ”underwater” 選擇權的員工受惠。在這些潛水狀態的選擇權中,有超過六百萬張履約價格在$500元以上,也就是說,除非Google股價再度飆回$500以上,否則這些員工的選擇權就像曹操愛小喬:夢一場。

 

一般來說,企業景氣不好時為了留住talented員工,才會採取stock options repricing策略。價差的部份,由公司吸收。對股東來說較為不利,因重新定價增加的費用支出 (這邊指分紅費用化之後),會讓財報的bottom line、EPS變得更不好看。Google就在新聞稿中,表示這次的調整,將在未來5年的財報中產生至少4億美金的影響。

 

stock option原先設計的出發點:

 

Advantage:

  1. 激勵員工
  2. 使員工和股東的利益一致

 

但是否重新定價stock options,一直是頗具爭議的作法:

 

Disadvantage:

  1. 員工和股東的利益衝突。同為股東,外部持股人得不到reprincg的好處
  2. 公司股價下跌,員工和管理階層應該負責,而不是透過options repricing來”shield” 他們的bad performance
  3. 加深對公司財報的衝擊

 

回到最option repricing的初衷 — 景氣不好時,希望人才不要跑掉。但股東們可能會問:這是一個Google需要擔心的問題嗎?想要激勵員工更熱血工作,除此之外,沒有其他方法嗎?

 

話說回來,企業下了repricing的決定,多少也意含者高層認為 (或說是賭) 股價未來下跌空間有限。否則這將是場昂貴的敗仗。有點sense的財務長都懂得精算後再下決定。

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All quotes are paraphrased:

 

Charlie Rose asked: “what’s the original business model of Google?”

 

Eric Schmidt: “Larry and Sergey tried to sell the search technology just invented to all of the then powerful Internet companies, but everyone turned them down. They said we don’t know how to work with you, you’re too young, that sort of things.”

 

When talking about percentage of advertising revenues to total revenues, Eric Schmidt said “98%. We’re an advertising company.” “Today, our strategy is search, ads, and apps.”

 

On acquisition, “We’re not going to buy anything in the short term (including Twitter). Partly because I think the prices are still too high.” (my thought: the (perceived) valuations of  U.S. hot startups shrinked quite a bit recently. Is the “too high” simply indicates that Eric Schmidt is not confident enough about the economy outlook?)

 

Joke time: “The vast majority of the photographs people taken with their phones are kept in the phones because they can’t get them out of them.” “We’re going to solve that problem.”

 

Eric Schmidt: “One of the things I like to see in the future is that Google (& YouTube) as the “politicians BS detector.”

 

“95% of ads served on Google are text ads”

 

“Contextual ads are not the only way for user-generated content monetization, think about micropayment. Say you have millions of audiences, 2 cents, 5 cents per view will be quite lucrative. We’ re seeing related technologies and tools being developed in the industry, and I think they are likely to be successful.”

 

Charlie Rose asked about what’s on the edge?  Eric Schmidt: “If you’re willing to give Google more information about you, i.e. interest, background, etc., Google will do more for you. Say, you’re on a street with your GPS-enabled phone, and Google should search for and tell you what you may be interested in nearby, automatically.” “Imagine that the people, the phone, and the constant search create a narrative stream.”

 

“We work in a technology where prices are improving.”

 

More philosophical talks on the latter part: “Press the ‘off-button’ — just because I have access to all (crisis) information doesn’t mean I have to worry about all of them.”

 

Also a very interesting question in the end asked by Charlie Rose: “Are people in technology different?” Eric Schmidt: “Technologists as a group tend to be more analytical, data-driven, more personally liberal, more willingly to tolerate the difference among people, more global in their focus…People in technology believe that they can create a whole new business…believe they can change the world from technology.”

 

And there you go: the full interview video

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1. 我們不想塑造出某些金融機構 ”too big to fail” 的意識形態

2. 但為了維持經濟穩定,我們還是會繼續金援大型金融機構

3. 如果一切順利,recession可望在09年末結束,2010年開始復甦

 

寓意:投機大師們,請繼續試試你們在Citigroup Inc.的手氣吧!莊家不保證你穩贏,但至少保證賭場天花板整修期間不會突然塌下來,你不會有生命危險的。

 

Good news for some, bad news for others.

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昨天和今天看到兩則新聞,讓我有種改變遲早會出現,但似乎都比想像中早實現的感覺。

 

第一則是Google Official Blog 在這禮拜三終於掙脫privacy concern的枷鎖,宣佈進軍Behavioral Targeting Ads市場,並同時開放新服務Ad Preferences Manager Beta測試。透過Ad Preference Manager,你可以先挑選自己有興趣的領域、主題,日後Google遞送的廣告就會依你的嗜好過濾,讓廣告對你的干擾度降到最低,你也比較有興趣點廣告,更重要的是,Agency因此賺更多錢,Publisher因此賺更多錢,Google因此賺更多錢,當然,Advertiser的conversion rate也能提高,一切皆大歡喜。

 

那我怎麼會特別想提這則消息呢?兩年前,我有陣子天天braistorming新idea,也把這些想法順手紀錄在ideaisqueen部落格中,其中開發「讓使用者自行選擇興趣、嗜好的廣告比對服務」就是其中之一。當時很迷StarWars,巴不得所有AdSense送出來的廣告都跟週邊商品相關,自然而然覺得世界上一定還有許多人同我有類似的需求,總覺得Google早該想到這點,讓使用者手動設定廣告遞送的條件。

 

第二則新聞則是剛出爐的2009年富比士世界富豪排行榜,這回比爾蓋茲重回首富寶座,而我也正好於約莫一年半前,寫過比爾蓋茲13年來首度丟掉首富地位的紀念文一篇。當時榜首被原本第三名的墨西哥電信大亨Carlos Slim取代。然而我相信以股票市值計價的資產,遲早會因市場波動而有所改變,但想不到改變會來得這麼快,想不到我們會在兩年後壟罩於金融風暴當中,也想不到文章寫完半年內,先是巴菲特擠掉墨西哥電信大亨成為2008年首富接棒人,又同時於12個月之間 (道瓊一萬四千點到七千點之間),將首富接力棒又交還給比爾蓋茲。

 

莫非定律改寫一下,我們生活的世界,不就是環繞在下面這句spell當中?

 

Anything that can change will change eventually.

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The idea executed by the one who came up with the idea.

 

執行的人無法體會點子有多好,想出點子的人無法體會執行起來有多難。想出點子的人,往往在跟點子談戀愛;執行點子的人,往往在跟點子當夫妻。

 

策略的發想人,也同時是執行者,那這計畫就躺著先贏一半了。可惜喜歡動腦的懶惰人,和喜歡動手的勤快人,生活在兩個截然不同的世界。

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 image

 

2天前 (20093/8) 才寫一篇說2009/2/26註冊的 ”Google” 官方 Twitter 帳號進場掃台,當時有80,635個 Follower,短短兩天,又多了2萬人,現在已經集滿100,905名朝聖者…

 

印象中歐巴馬的帳號在青春期也沒發育得這麼快…

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Since the measure of a technology’s success is how invisible it becomes, the best long-term strategy is to develop products and services that can be ignored. (source)

 

Visibility – short term success – marketing

Invisibility – long term success – core value

 

The strategy you’re pursuing is visibility or invisibility?

 

If you’re a manger or founder, would you rather make yourself more invisible than visible within an organization?

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image

(source)

 

Don’t waste your time. Most of us are floating at the center of the chart, and tend to drive to the upper left side when thinking about innovation. Stupidity and innovation is a double sided blade.

 

For marketing guys, they have little, if not none, control of product development, their efforts always lie on the horizon of pricing war. Remember the 4P’s and The Lord of the Rings? After all, you’re reluctant to admit it’s One P to rules them all. And that’s Price.

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Google在 2009/2/26 宣佈官方品牌帳號進駐 Twitter: http://twitter.com/google,直至今天為止 (2009/3/8) 已經有80,635個follower。而這個帳號目前只有36次 update。(Google 帳號本身的新聞性,外加第一篇只由0與1組成的哈囉文,造就了不少 PR 版面。)

 

image

image

把第一篇0&1二進位文解譯後,對應的英文字元為:”FEELING LUCKY”

 

 

Microsoft 也有不少官方或非官方 (員工) 的 Twitter 帳號,相較於 Google 這門大砲,MSFT比較像是散兵作戰,不過所有帳號的 follower 加起來應該遠超過8萬人。

 

直接拿品牌來註冊固然能快速匯集人氣,但這樣的一個帳號本身也有許多風險和限制。不知道帳號背後是由哪個部門的員工經營呢?工程部門?產品部門?行銷部門?公關部門?還是 Eric Schmidt?此帳號發表的內容是否要對公司品牌與形象負責呢?她 or 他 or 它能「說」些什麼?界線在哪裡?

 

當然 Twitter 上除了 @Google 總指揮官外,也有 @YouTube、@Blogger、@Google Reader、@Google Apps、@App Engine 等官方作戰聯隊。

 

OK,讓我們把鏡頭拉回來,來場 Microsoft 官方 Twitter 帳號大校閱 (來源大部分取自於微軟員工 Adam Kinney 蒐集的資訊,少部份是我之前不知不覺follow到的,為避免這篇被搜尋引擎判斷為link stuffing,所以連結都先拿掉了):

 

@zunemarketplace、@XNACommunity、@wmdev、@wlmessenger、@WindowsLive、@MSWindows’、@AskTechNetUK、@MVPAwardProgram、@MSDN、@MIX09、@mixonline、@MicrosoftUP、@microsofttag、@MicrosoftStore、@SharePoint、@MSOfficeResKit、@officelabs、@MSExpression、@bizspark、@adCenterBlog、@Live_Search、@livemesh、@liveframework、@codeplex、@ch10、@ch9、@ch8、@MicrsftTech4All 、@SiteNamedDesire 、@ContinuumShow 、@projectrosetta、@SilverlightNews 、@XAMLEvents、@codeplex’、@Microsoft_TAM、@MSLearning、@MicrosoftPress、@zuneinsider、@Microsoft_Green、@MSAccess、@MSAddvertising、@IE、@PDC09、@TechEd09、@MSFTissues、@microsoft_tr、@msblueprints、@MSinDOD、@Microsoft_IT、@microsoftisrael、@MicrosoftStore、@RoMicrosoft、@MicrosoftCES、@MicrosoftEDU、@OfficeLiveGirl、@msoffice_us、@SharePointMVPs…等等等,還有許多帳號尚未浮出水面,族繁不及備載。

 

 

壓軸當然就是 @msdn_taiwan,Twitter 國際戰線都開打了,台灣當然不能缺席。 : D

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All quotes are paraphrased.

 

Charlie Rose asked Marissa Mayer, “what’s the next big thing?”  She said, “cell phones plus social networking features.”

 

What’s the difference in Larry and Sergey?”  “Sergey is very mathematical, he has very good memory at numbers, including employee stock options, salaries. And he’s looking into details of deals with other companies.” “Larry tends to be more about the product, the technology, the user interfaces, etc..”

 

The business model?” “Our revenue base is more diverse than it would originally seem, because we have advertisers from almost every sectors.”

 

“What’s the decision process of making the Android and G phone?” “First, find the right people and the right team.”. “Software companies should make software on the phones, not the hardware companies as most of them are doing now. (Charlie commented: this argument is very Microsoft-ish.)”

 

“When you hire new people, what factors you’re looking for?”  “There are two key elements that are parts of all the very good people we have at Google, and that is ‘smart’ and ‘getting things done’.” “We’re also looking for people who are motivated to make positive impact on the world.”

 

“Base on our hiring regression model, we find background, past performances, and references are relatively good indicators.”

 

I can’t embed the interview video, so please check out the source if you want to see the full episode.

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Long ago, Ben Graham taught me that “Price is what you pay; value is what you get.” Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.

- BerkShire Hathaway Shareholder Annual Letter 2008, P4

 

Here Buffett mentioned his old mentor again. 我們在評估一件事時,常常只看到付出的代價 (比較近),卻往往忽略背後的價值 (比較遠)。但不用責怪自己,這是大腦發出風險規避命令,強迫心中那台2進位計算機 (只會判斷好或不好、要或不要) 運算出來的結果。誰知道未來會變成時麼樣子?當下預期的價值,放到不確定的未來,天知道會不會打個三折五折?

 

Benjamin Graham 會說:孩子, 其實價值在你決定要付出多少成本的那一刻,就決定了。

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世界真奇妙

不到20個月前,花旗的股價還在55元歷史新高:

 

image 

現在則是在1元附近掙扎。上頭這張圖真像是歐亞大陸版塊造山運動。一座座陡峭的喜馬拉雅山2.0正在華爾街比高高。

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1. Increase the quality of life.

2. Right a wrong.

3. Prevent the end of something good.

 

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Fortune剛公布2009年,前50家最受尊敬、仰慕 (?!) 的企業排名,Microsoft剛好排在第一頁簡介的最後一個欄位 - 第10名,而本年度第一名呢? Apple。沒特別仔細研究criteria,但看描述都是和財務表現有關,倒是突然興起個念頭,想來做個投資實驗:

 

在現在這個時間點 (美東時間3/4早盤),我買入前10名最受景仰之企業股票各1000股,然後我們逐月 (逐年?!) 來看這些企業的表現:

 

最景仰企業排名 企業名稱 3/4 (US Time) 盤中價 購入成本 (1000股)
1 Apple 91.37 $91,370
2 Berkshire Hathaway 2,388.00 (B股) $2,388,000
3 Toyota Motor 61.47 (ADR) $61,470
4 Google 322.98 $322,980
5 Johnson & Johnson 47.94 $47,940
6 Procter & Gamble 47.21 $47,210
7 FedEx 41.08 $41,080
8 Southwest Airlines 5.19 $5,190
9 General Electric 6.40 $6,400
10 Microsoft 16.31 $16,310

* 這樣一來總共花了USD $3,027,950 : D

 

這個portfolio的風險分散程度算是中等,有科技業、運輸業、物流業、民生消費品業、金融業等。但除了Southwest Airline、FedEx和最近跌爆的GE之外,其餘都是平均市值有實力在100 Billion以上的大型企業 (有實力指的是太平盛世時)。Fortune有沒有看走眼,就看平均報酬率是否是能超越DJIA和S&P500的表現。

 

這些企業到底值不值得尊敬呢? 讓我們期待台灣時間4月5日晚上的成績! 喔,不好意思,我是說2014年4月5日…人與人相處總要給點時間才能感受出對方是否值得尊敬,企業何嘗不是呢?

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1. What won’t change?

2. Accept failure if you want to be innovative.

3. A customer-alignment strategy (doing expensive, customer centric but “shareholder-unfriendly” things in the short term, a shareholder-alignment (combined with customer-alignment) strategy in the long term.

4. Charlie Rose asked, “choose one word that most contributed to your success and achievement.” Jeff Bezos answered, “willingness to be long-term oriented, willingness to be misunderstood, and willingness to fail.”

5. The goal of the design of Kindle is to make the device disappeared when you read books. You’re totally into the author’s world.

 

The last point also applies to the design of any platform, either the next social networks or next operating systems or next iTunes or next mobile apps stores. What people want is the seamless experience of interaction with content. The less they can feel the platform, the better.

 

Let’s make WINDOWS frictionless like oxygen, shall we?

 

Original Interview Video Here

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image 

(愛護眼睛,點圖放大。來源: 聽說是普遍認為具可信度的Net Applications)

 

本月(2009/2)特色:

1. Safari 市占率連續成長數個月後,2月份首次下滑

2. IE 市占率雖仍下滑,但幅度減小

 

我最近總有個未來瀏覽器應該朝企業用戶和一般使用者分兩個版本開發的想法: 企業版本專注於開發高安全性、簡易部署(&管控)、加速瀏覽等核心功能,消費者端則專注於開發多元化 (a.k.a.讓你外掛裝到掛)、簡易操作介面、可個人化、情境化版本 (e.g. 在線上購物模式、線上轉帳模式、線上閒逛模式、線上遊戲模式等不同情境中,自動切換安全性等級與載入控制項等背景行為) 。無論是FF想前進企業市場,或IE想繼續把握消費者市場,都可以考慮考慮。天真的我認為,雙方的弱項 (以及逐漸變成包袱的強項),應該可以透過開發對應版本,逐漸打下一直吃不到的市場。

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Microsoft Office Vision 2019

 

Office Lab的”envisioning”系列影片有更多大家幻想未來生活的影片:http://www.officelabs.com/Pages/Envisioning.aspx

 

不過那幾個觸控手勢似乎已經被玩爛了,是時候想想還有哪些符合人體工學的動作適合運用在觸控界面上。影片嘛,想像空間還很大。

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(11:46)…Having lived through it (pancreas cancer), I can now say this to you with a bit more certainty than when death was a useful but purely intellectual concept: No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don’t want to die to get there.

And yet death is the destination we all share. No one has ever escaped it. And that is as it should be, because Death is very likely the single best invention of Life. It is Life’s change agent. It clears out the old to make way for the new. Right now the new is you, but someday not too long from now, you will gradually become the old and be cleared away.

 

Sorry to be so dramatic, but it is quite true. Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life. Don’t be trapped by dogma - which is living with the results of other people’s thinking. Don’t let the noise of other’s opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary.

 

Steve Jobs can, why you cant’t?

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最近Facebook因為user data ownership和和data portability問題吵到主流媒體上:

 

 

Mark Zuckerberg正襟危坐,看起來有點緊張,最後主持人還調侃他的領帶,說他2007年上節目時穿得一派輕鬆,現在可有“serious CEO”的樣子了 XD。

 

傳統印象中,老外比東方人重視隱私,但在Facebook裡頭又會發現人人樂於詳填profile資訊,也樂於把news feed完全分享出來。矛盾的是,老外又同時對資訊的自由使用權利與掌控權力相當有意見,這真是在台灣很難看到的現象。台灣人概熱衷於把部落格文章或是相簿設密碼,但卻很少關心這些資料是否真的安全,也很少注意服務商是否曾把使用者貢獻的內容拿去做商業用途等議題 (反過來說,Facebook甚至有好幾個group主題是站內利用user generated content產生behavior targeting的social ads — 同樣是隱私權問題)。在台灣幾個比較大的BSP廣告幾乎是無孔不入,甚至大方置入廣告商精心設計的佈景主題,引誘使用者當免費的宣傳媒介,這些資訊都沒有清楚揭漏,但也不太有人在意,台灣人一連上網路,是不是自主意識就變得比較薄弱,我也搞不清楚了。

 

再回到Facebook因修改使用條款造成的爭議,最後Mark決定回到舊條款,但同時進行改寫(寫成一般人比較容易看懂的內容),且宣布凡是Facebook泱泱大國的人民 (聽說把user數換算成人口,即能登上全球第6大國家) 都可以參與新版條款的修正。不虧是民主國家的產物。人類真的會把維繫社會運作的那一套帶到網路世界。

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