Timothy Chen

I agree that simply adding a comment thread at the end of a news story is a recipe for trouble. But it is only a recipe for trouble if that is as far as you go. An unattended comment thread will be full of garbage and many are.

But if the author of the news story, or opinion piece, or blog post, tends to the comments, replies to the good ones, signals the bad ones, chastises the loudmouth bullies, and generally runs the comment threads like a serious discussion group, a serious discussion will result. (source)

網路世界暴民很多，套句台灣的說法，喜歡留言酸人的鄉民也不少。但如果作者有辦法花時間和認真回應的讀者互動，來亂的久而久之就會知難而退 (挑不起戰文 –> 無趣)。型塑深度討論的文化，深度討論就自然會出現。

It’s an issue for the news industry because tending to comment threads is not part of a journalist’s traditional job. But I would argue that it is now and they ought to get busy doing it. For one, the journalists that do it and do it well will be better read. And they’ll be better informed. They’ll get tips in the comment threads. They’ll get constructive criticism that will help them do their job better. And they’ll get leads on new stories before others will.

假使有一天，記者的 JD 多了「回應鄉民討論 ( for 自己的新聞稿)」，那應該是個好機會，讓台灣那些不認真作工課，老寫出包文的記者「顯得更加亮眼」。就像是獨裁的媒體突然民主化，讓伴隨而來的市場機制逐走劣幣。

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花了一點時間快速瀏覽過兩家公司剛出爐的財報，可以發現近年來 MSFT 賣命買回庫藏股、配股息等動作，讓手上的現金減少許多 (60 億美金)，GOOG 則是逐年累積中 (110 億美金)。然而，加上高流動性的短期投資，MSFT 手上握有的總值 (314 億美金)，仍是驚人的天文數字。也遙遙領先 GOOG (193 億)。

讓我意外的是，上個會計年度結算下來， GOOG 的淨利率沒有想像中高 (19.39%)，反倒是 MSFT 仍有接近 3 成的水準 (29.26%)。但今年以來，GOOG 厲行成本管控，預估今年會計年度結算，到達 2成5 的淨利率應該不是問題 (目前我粗估約 26.39%)。反倒是 MSFT 由於這連兩季營收不如預期，且重大產品即將上市，R&D 的投資持續增加，(Cost of Revenue 也增加，猜測因 Online Service 的營運費用認列在這項，細節要再去確認一下。) 所以 2009 年會計年度的淨利率下滑 (24.93%)，且很有可能輸給 GOOG 2009 會計年度的淨利率表現。

GOOG 連兩季成本管控超乎爾街預期的好，造就傑出的淨利率，分析師 (高盛、瑞士信貸) 紛紛將目標價從四月份的 $400 左右調整到七月份的 $500 左右水準。MSFT 本月財報尚未公佈之前，分析師普遍把目標價定在 $27 左右，現在則是不明 XD。

以下整理一份捉對廝殺比較表，大家來感覺一下 GOOG 相對於 MSFT 大約是「身材」多粗壯的一名對手。就目前數字看來，GOOG 全年的營收和淨利大約都只有 MSFT 的三分之一。下次遇到那種被媒體洗腦的路人，記得提醒 他/灺： 微軟還沒要被 Google 征服。現在微軟的賺錢實力大概還等於 3 家 Google 加起來。

未來呢？讓我們緊盯每一季的成績單吧。

現金與約當現金, June 30, 2009 * 以下數字單位皆為<百萬美元>

現金與短期投資, June  30, 2009

全年營收, 2008 會計年度

全年營收, 2009 會計年度 (MSFT 會計年度截止日為6月30日，GOOG 為12月31日。為方便當下比較，我直接把 GOOG 至2009年6月30日為止的營收乘以 2。  )

全年稅後淨利, 2008 會計年度

全年稅後淨利, 2009 會計年度 (MSFT 會計年度截止日為6月30日，GOOG 為12月31日。為方便當下比較，我直接把 GOOG 至2009年6月30日為止的淨利乘以 2。  )

淨利率,  2008 會計年度

淨利率, 2009 會計年度 (Goole 淨利率為根據前述營收與淨利預估值推算)

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(source)

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If you don’t like the way someone is acting, understand you can’t change his behavior, you can only change his circumstances.

There’s an infamous scene in the Godfather where a movie producer turns down a ‘reasonable’ request from the Don. The Godfather is stunned. How could someone turn him down?

After the family kills the producer’s prize racehorse (and puts it in his bed), the producer changes his mind.

What changed? Before the intervention, the producer didn’t understand, didn’t believe, didn’t fear the Godfather. So he made what he believed was the best possible decision. Afterward, his worldview was forcibly changed and he made a different decision based on different facts.

 

Probably not a good idea to run around beheading horses, but it’s a useful lesson in changing perception. (source)

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You can’t shrink your way to greatness.

- Tom Peters

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How do norms get formed? I think it’s simpler than it looks: we interact with people who use the norm we use. We follow or read or hang out with people who use the same social constructs we do. (source)

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Q: Maybe a better way to ask that question would have been, in this new world, is there a place still for traditional operating systems and productivity software that you sell for $250?

Absolutely. As I point out in the chapter on how Microsoft competed with free, what they have found is that you can compete with free. You’re not selling software. What you’re selling is something else. Convenience, risk-reduction, peace of mind, a contractual promise. You’re selling something that people value. (source)

MP3到處流竄，為什麼付費的 iTunes 還是能做起來？破解軟體到處流竄，為什麼付費的 Apple Apps Store 做的起來？我自己親身經歷後 ，發現他們賣的不是商品本身的相對價值，他們賣的是上述提到的 “Convenience”。

當你推出某種流程，它的便利性大於使用盜版所需付出的成本 (含搜尋種子、載點，下載等待時間，抓到假檔、病毒檔風險，操作摸索等)，以及這種便利性，大於大腦做出「選擇」所需的成本 (iTunes 或 Apps Store 自動幫你分類、過濾實用軟體或熱門音樂，並提供其他使用者的評分或推薦)。以上情況都成立，使用者就願意付費。這種流程，就是潛在的獲利模式。

大多數人都是懶惰鬼，大多數人都不喜歡花時間做選擇。Windows Mobile for Marketplace 是否能成功，就看流程。

如果花 80 元，順路吃頓麥當勞早餐可以帶來愉快的一天 (起碼半天)，那花 35 元 ($0.99 USD) 順手下 載一首音樂滿足飢渴的情緒，何樂而不為呢？

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Tina Seelig 是現任 Stanford Technology Venture Program 主任。平時講座多擔任moderator，這回她親自上陣，分享這些年來 teaching entrepreneurship 的心得。以一名教授的標準來看，她的 Passion、口才、反應都算是一流。佳句摘要如下：

The bigger the problem, the bigger the opportunity.

the lesson here is that so often we frame problems way too tightly and if we keep unpacking and unpacking them we realized that we have resources that are much larger and more valuable than we even imagined. But we also realized that our own skills that we have and the opportunities around us are bigger than we ever thought at the beginning.

 

They need to know how to fail, fast and frequently. OK, the fact is as many of my colleagues say, "If you’re not failing sometimes, you’re not taking enough risks." Failure is the secret sauce of Silicon Valley. If you look at the number of ventures that get funded and the numbers that are successful, then you have to conclude that venture capitalists actually invest in failures. And it’s clear that the ratio between our successes and our failures are actually pretty stable. So if you want more successes, you’re going to have to put up with up with more failures.

In most organizations there are endless other opportunities waiting there for you to turn into something wonderful. I realized the other day that when you get a job you aren’t getting that job. You are getting the key to that building. And as soon as you’re in that building it’s up to you to figure out all of the other things you can do. And if you look at people who have really been successful that is what they have done. They haven’t waited for other people to anoint them, for other people to tell them what to do.

Tina Seelig 的著作：”WHAT I WISH I KNEW WHEN I WAS 20”，裡頭提到的 10 點：

1 ) Every problem is an opportunity for a creative solution.

2 ) The harder you work, the luckier you get.

3 ) Find the intersection between your interests, your skills, and the market.

4 ) Try lots of things and keep what works.

5 ) You don’t have to wait to be anointed.

6 ) Don’t burn bridges.

7 ) You can do it all, just not all at the same time.

8 ) It’s the little things that matter most.

9 ) When you are a team, the key is making everybody else successful.

10 ) Never miss an opportunity to be fabulous.

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Imagine if you had a single data feed, fredsactivity.xml [which recorded all your online behaviors], that was hosted on the web and you could share with web services. I’d give it to Amazon to get better recommendations. I’d give it to Google Reader to find interesting blogs to read. I’d give it to Twitter to get better recommendations for people to follow. I’d give it to Netflix and Fandango to get better movie recommendations. I’ve give it to Goolge to get better search results. (source)

Behavior targeting 不應該只給廣告界利用(濫用？)。未來 BT 應該利用在更多沒有「特定商業意圖」的情境當中。當一種技術為廣告主帶來的價值多餘為使用者帶來的價值，那這技術恐怕很難走入主流。

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算是滿清新的見解。有別於媒體的膝反射：今天看到 Microsoft 推出 Bing 就說 Google 即將面臨危機；明天看到 Google 推出 Chrome OS 就說 Microsoft 即將大難臨頭…

我個人喜歡最後一段：

Google engineers are allowed to spend 20 percent of their time on new ideas — yet of those thousands of ideas, the company can really invest in only a dozen per year, leading to dissatisfaction and defections as the best nerds leave to pursue their dreams.

Maybe they’ll leave for the startup that finally topples Microsoft … or Google. But until then these companies will posture, spend a little money on research and development, and keep each other in check, while reporters and publications pretend that it matters.

Hackers 最需要的就是成就感呀！

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On the STVP speech, Steve Ballmer answered a question regarding experience at big and small companies:

I mean valuable experience is valuable experience. There’s nothing actually I would say startup experience is neither more valuable nor less valuable. People want to say that startup experience is more valuable or big company.

Hey, if you dug in to something, I don’t care if it was a small company or a large company, the key at least to me isn’t where you were, it’s did you dig in. Did you work your butt off? Did you perspire? Did you force you brain to really think and have peripheral vision? When I ask somebody like to tell me about what they did? I don’t care where they did it, I want to know did their brain fan out, or where they just looking at a narrow little piece, or were they’re really thinking broadly? Did they think comprehensively? Could they be concrete about what they did and what they accomplished? If things didn’t work, can they be honest and direct big company or small company.

This didn’t work, that didn’t work. So that’ll be the kind of thing that is important to me and I hope to the folks who work for us who are evaluating and looking at people.

Certainly I think in most people’s lives, it’s usually interesting to have some experience in bigger environments and smaller environments. You learn differently from both of them. As I said earlier, I got my big and little all in the same place which is unusual.

But at the end of the day, what I tell you most is to just dig in and love what you are doing. And if you love what you are doing and you work really hard at it, and you really embrace it heart, body, and soul, and I’m sure it matters too much.

I think the biggest mistake most people make when they pick their first job is they don’t worry enough about whether they’ll love the work, and they worry more whether it’s a good experience. There is a time in your life generally when - you might pick a school that’s good for you, and you make pick a second school because it’s good for you. But by the time you are picking jobs, I’d really think you’d got to pick a job because you really think you’re going to love doing the work that you’re doing and it’s a mistake not to.

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Here’s the thing: advertisers treat prospects online as targets, as victims, as people to subject to interruption. Conferences treat attendees as royalty, as paying customers who invested time and money to be there. (source)

如此很明顯可以帶出 Social Media Marketing 的好處。Soical Media 的經營上，都是把每一個 followers, fans, friends, 當成 (potential) royal customers / users 對待 (起碼我的經驗是如此)，提供的資訊是有學習價值的，即時的，互動的。以目前台灣市場來看，投資 Social Media 經營，能影響到的人數，大約是介於線上廣告和實體研討會之間，但影響的深度卻更接近研討會水準。

這樣的投資報酬率還算低嗎？

ps. 說到 ”advertisers treat prospects online as targets, as victims, as people to subject to interruption.” 我覺得目前業界多站在一個 bait (誘餌) 的角度在發想創意。而有價值的東西，則通通塞到 landing page。廣告主或代理商往往沒信心，覺得使用者的注意力可能就只有那十分之一秒。好玩的是，很多行銷活動的 lading page 內容貧乏，做的也像廣告一樣 (我可以說那是一整頁的橫幅廣告嗎？！XD)，也難怪最後跑 report 時，才驚覺：啊，使用者怎麼只停留一兩秒就急忙跳開了 (代理商能勇敢告訴業主真相嗎：其實是因為我們精心設計的網站很乾啦 XD ?)。

另一個常見的沒信心症狀：總覺得製作物字太多，沒人要看，總覺得要做就要把圖做大一點，多一點，這樣才吸引人。嘿，我說你看這篇文章都看到這裡了，難道不覺得像你一樣聰明的人都喜歡閱讀文字嗎？你不覺得當文字有意義，有價值時，沈浸在其中的讀者不會在意字數嗎？說不定還會嫌字不夠呢。對文字沒信心，大量使用圖片，也是停留在對自己沒信心的 bait (誘餌) 思維。

我相信二流的人被圖片吸引，一流的人被文字吸引 (抱歉我的信念有點偏激)。你想影響的人是那一種呢？

我支持 Social Media，因為廣告/置入的同時，也能為使用者帶來具教育性、啟發性、娛樂性的內容。更重要的事，這個媒介可以擺脫 bait 的包袱。這些附加價值，過去單純的線上行銷不容易做到。

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像 Steve Ballmer 這種一秒鐘兩千萬上下的人，只會對 3 種最重要的 audience 演講，第一種是企業的 TDM/BDM，第二種，是微軟內部員工，第三種，就是常春藤盟校的學生。聽起來似乎有點精英主義，但這就是 ROI ，這就是人參(?)。

好在有 Internet。

btw, 重要的問題，通常是老問題，重要的答案，通常是一樣的答案：

Q: ”What are the lessons you’ve learned during the early days?”

A: “Hire the best people.”

Quote from the end of the speech:

“When I was in the business school, most people wanted to be consultants or investment bankers. Those were the hot jobs. I love consultants and I love investment bankers. But consultants don’t invent and most of the products investment bankers invent are somewhat discredited in the current environment. (笑) ”

“Entrepreneurs who invent, who create will really add to the level of innovation, the productivity in the economy, will change the world, will create economic value, will drive jobs, and will have a heck of a lot of fun doing it…”

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The fastest way to amp up the worth of your own network is to bring smaller networks together with it so they can act as one larger network and gain the total n² value. The internet won this way. It was the network of networks, the stuff in between that glued highly diverse existing networks together. Can you take the auto parts supply network and coordinate it with the insurance adjusters network plus the garage repair network? Can you coordinate the intersection of hospital records with standard search engine technology? Do the networks of county property deed databases, U.S. patents, and small-town lawyers have anything useful in common? Three thousand members in one network are far more powerful than one thousand members in three networks. (source)

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If a company as large and powerful as Microsoft, a veritable monopoly, can be challenged by what’s coming, its very existence called into question because it is not prepared for the future, is it any wonder that the zit on the ass of the economy known as the music business can be decimated?

The good news is it will be reincarnated. Just with a different business model. That’s what’s going on now. Don’t bitch and moan, try and get ahead of the customer and entice him when he finally reaches you. Providing more, not less. He doesn’t want to rip you off, he wants to give you all his money. But only if he wants what you’re purveying, and exactly what you’re purveying. Does anybody salivate over the new edition of Windows or Office? Only if they’re frustrated with the crappy old one that is making them tear their hair out. Once you start protecting what you’ve got, trying to deny the future, keeping people locked into old ways, you’re on the way to decline. Remember this. 

– by Bob Lefsetz (source)

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The external world is remarkably consistent, and yet we blame it for what’s going on inside of us. People who think the world is going to end always manage to find a new thing that’s going to cause it to end. People itching to be bummed out all day long will certainly find an external event that give their emotion some causal cover. The thinking happens long before the event that we blame the thinking on.

…Marketers spend billions of dollars identifying common biochemical events, and then they launch products and services with stories that align with those events. As a result, we spend money on external forces in an attempt to heal internal pain.

(source)

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We believe that the product is the heart of any technology company. The company gets built around the product. Therefore, we believe it is critical that we as investors understand the product. (source)

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but the fact is, we need to read what everyone else is reading in order to have a sense of being in sync. If it’s in there, it matters, because everyone else read it.

If a publication like this doesn’t exist, go ahead and create it, because you’ll profit.

The internet eliminates the friction and the barriers that made it natural for there to be just a few media outlets per sector. This change led to an explosion in choices. But as things settle down, we’re busy searching for the thing that ‘everyone else’ who matters reads. (source)

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Andrew Keen: NOW and power

 

Andrew Keen wrote “The Cult of the Amateur,” the critique of user-created content.

 

The collapse of the industrial corporation is not leading to democratization or a reorganization of power. Instead, it is creating new centers of power, a class of digital elites who are more powerful than companies.

 

Everyone here talks about “the state of now” a profound historical moment that changes everything, including the nature of power (e.g. Twitter gives us tools to talk back to power).

 

I’m more skeptical. Rather than changing the nature of power, I see the “State of now” as creating new sources and centers of power

 

Societies are always dominated by one type of elite who dress up their lust for power in rhetoric State of now IS revolutionary, is redistribution of power, but it is just a shift from one group to another Power of the industrial organization / industrial institution à Power of the 21^st century individual.

 

We’re living through a great restructuring of power – Shirky says same thing (“here comes everybody”) Now, Tim O’Reilly is more powerful than his company. He symbolizes the digital feudal order.

 

Rather than what Jeff Jarvis and Clay Shirky say, that a shift from industrial corporation à democratization, I say that the industrial corporation is being replaced by a new elite: digital barons. Not democratic at all.

 

Future: some super-empowered individuals. O’Reilly and Chris Sacca are nice, but challenge is to acknowledge that. Not fall into a trap of “we’re remaking history.”

 

在我心目中，台灣的確有一兩位部落客夠格稱為這個小島上的 digital baron。

 

(source: 140 Conference)

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