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Archive for August, 2009

本日佳句 - 放屁

昨天收到【放屁】,一本號稱書名庸俗,但內容嚴謹的好書。書名原文是 “bullshit”,敢出這種書,內容也要夠有料,不然翻個兩三頁,讀者應該會很容易把作者和書名聯想在一起。xD 作者為普林斯敦大學道德哲學系教授,譯者為南方朔。此外本書還有曾志朗、陳文茜、詹宏志、林火旺等人的推薦。有多推薦呢…話說我一翻開,這本僅厚 100 頁左右的小書,竟然就有 29 頁是這些人寫的推薦序…冏rz…

 

剩下的七十多頁,我只能說,不是我這種凡人讀完一次就能理解的。書中充滿哲學教授的邏輯辯證,外加教授本來就不是暢銷書寫手,許多地方也許只關注到學術界能否瞭解,而忽略了大眾的閱讀習慣 (如大量的例子佐證說明)。不過我還是硬食了幾個不錯的例子,其中一個例子出自於「放屁」、「鬼扯」、與「說謊」之間的辯證:

 

想像有個演講者在七月四日美國國慶日上頭聲嘶力竭的宣稱:

 

我們偉大且受到祝福的國家,那些開國元勳在聖神的引導下,為人類開創了新的開始。

這些話當然是鬼扯。

如布雷克斯的解釋所說,這個演講並非說謊,因為,只有在他意圖讓聽眾相信他自認為假的事情時,這時他才是說謊。追究說謊的重點在於:我們的國家是否偉大,是否被賜福,開國元勳是否得到聖神引導,是否為人類開創了新的開始?但演講者根本就不在意聽眾怎麼想這個問題,而聽眾也根本沒有人介意演講者講這種話的動機

這就是鬼扯,七月四日的演講顯然就是鬼扯。原因不在於演講者認為自己說的是假話,而是如同布雷克斯的解釋所說,演講者意圖藉著這些表述,傳達他某些要人家接受的印象

對每國歷史,這位演講者並不想去欺騙任何人,他在意的乃是人們如何看待他。他要聽眾把他當成愛國的人,覺得他對國家的起源和使命具有深刻的想法與感受,認為他體認到宗教的重要,還對美國的偉大歷史很感動,於是他把對國家的驕傲和對上帝的謙卑合而為一,嘰哩呱啦講了這番話。

 

看完這段,你猜我想到誰?我想到某位植物行光合作用部位的教授…還有數字先生…還有一拖拉庫常在媒體上曝光的「專家」…

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連續開了幾次 brainstorming 會議,除了一直被 idea 淹沒的感覺很棒之外,我也開始尋找一個有效但又不會干擾到快速聯想、快速思考的過濾器。今天我發現了指標:

 

Necessity is the mother of invention.

 

我想把這句話改為 “Necessity is the mother of innovation.” 應該也說得通。然後再變成 ”Necessity is the mother of creativity.” 應該也不為過。最後。我得到一個小結論:”Necessity is the mother of everything.” 需求是萬物得以存在之母。在目前唯物主義掛帥的社會價值體系中,你去做一件原先就沒需求的事情,就是沒有 ROI 。brainstorming 是由大腦和風暴兩個字組成,風暴來得急,去得也快,風暴降臨那一瞬間固然讓人興奮,但風暴也讓人失去理智。失敗的種子往往是我們在 euphoria 的狀態中種下的。

 

誰說行銷就是創造需求?誰說行銷活動的發想,不能從 audience 的需求出發呢?

 

裝好過濾器再出發追風吧。

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羅斯柴爾德

羅斯柴爾德家族的金融霸業已綿延超過 250 年,據傳該家族總資產曾一度高達 50 萬億美元,相當於 800 個比爾蓋茲所握有的財富…Orz…最近因為貨幣戰爭這本書開頭就拿羅斯柴爾德暖場,更強化了他們打神秘且低調的形象,搞的全球華人興致勃勃 (好吧我承認我也很有興趣)。順應潮流,電視台也特地請來第六代掌門人 - 大衛 · 羅斯柴爾德做了專訪。

 

節錄幾段話 (英譯):

 

我見到過很多有錢的人,他們很有錢,但是他們並沒有任何的影響力。

 

我們 (家族) 有自己的原則,我們的原則就是團結、正直、和勤勞。

 

我們應該去做一個冷靜的旁觀者,而不是成為一個積極的演員。

 

我告訴你一些我個人的事情,我做生意已經 40 年了,今年我已經 66 歲了,我看到有些人,他們總是想:我要變得更富有,但是你要知道,這總是有個限度的,你是要有自己的野心,但這並不意謂著你不需要保守,這兩著並不矛盾。比如說我就很有野心,我希望我們的家族能夠一直傳承,我希望我們能變得更加全球化,更有影響力,更專業,更發達,但我並不是整天都在想如何變得更富有,因為一個人只能同時坐一把椅子,開一輛車,睡一張床,所以我覺得,財富是需要一個累積的過程,如果你每天都在想著,我要致富我要致富,可能反而會適得其反。保守並不意味著後退,而是謹慎地向前走

 

扣掉這幾段話,其實整個訪談沒什麼內容。從回答的方式來看,也算是呼應了家族含蓄低調的風格吧。我相信,身為一名大絕招就是和政府攪和的金融大亨,其功力絕對不只如此。

 

順帶一提,羅斯柴爾德家徽 (coat of arm),最下方以拉丁文寫著 “Concordia, Integritas, Industria, (Harmony, Integrity, Industry).” 也就是前面提到的「團結、正直、勤勞」。

 

File:Rotschilds arms.jpg

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為什麼讀文學

前幾天恰巧和同事聊到最近想來多看點文學作品。一直以來我都是商業書籍的愛好者,但離開學校後,我發現真正出現 a-ha moment 的反倒都源自於過去的人文記憶。久了漸漸察覺:商業知識實踐在日常細節中,文學記憶則落實在深度思考與方向探索。Fed Wilson 推薦的書單 for entrepreneur 正好符合我這種想法: 

The point of this list is that there is way more insight to be gained from stories than from business books. And these are some amazing stories.

 

他推薦的書單如下:

 

在這個企管顧問滿街跑的年代,在這個商業書籍汗牛充棟的年代,你的 competitive advantage 就在前人右腦裡頭。

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SAM ALTMAN: I think the technology is great, but one of the downsides to technology is it often isolates us behind our respective computers, and I we’ve lost some of this I think real-world interaction that we used to have. And one of the fascinating promises of location technology is this ability for us to have real-world connections. And so I can see people that I wouldn’t normally get to. Or if I’m a parent, I can use this for peace of mind, because I know where my kids are with their consent. Or if I need a restaurant, I could try one.

 

SAM ALTMAN: I think that location is going to be a huge part of the future of mobile advertising. If you think about all of the different things that advertisers use to target users, the biggest missing one has been location. And in some senses, that’s the most important one, because what we find is that users are very much more likely to act on an ad for something near them, because just — it’s relevant, it’s right now, it’s actionable. And so we have huge interests from advertisers all the time that want to deliver location-targeted ads.

 

AM ALTMAN:  So, we have two primary revenue streams.  One is a very traditional model that’s easy to understand, where either our users pay us or the carriers pay us to offer our product.  And that’s a unique advantage of mobile. It has thus far been easier to get money on mobile than on the Web. Second, location-based ads are really worth a lot to a certain type of advertiser, and we think that will continue to develop into a very nice business for us.

 

- SAM ALTMAN, Founder and CEO of Loopt, the full interview video

 

很可惜台灣的數據通信費用還是居高不下,否則 location-based-apps-on-the-go 想必能讓我們的生活過得更加幸福美滿…

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Open Source

Open Source community 有一百個反對微軟的理由。微軟也有九十九個理由可以回應為什麼我們要 (或不要) 如此如此做。然而剩下的那一個反對理由,總讓微軟的前九十九個回應顯得渺小:

 

這第一百反,反的是體制 a.k.a. Anti-establishment

 

體制化是走進主流 (多數那一方) 所要付出的代價。等哪一天 open culture 也成為主流,就勢必會失去獨立價值觀 (我和你不一樣)、改革價值觀 (我代表改變)、和進步價值觀 (我代表更美好的未來) 的魅力;勢必會失去原先的信徒,勢必會喚起另一股反對勢力。

 

有沒有可能 20 年後,當人人覺得【啥都 open】是理所當然時,在世界的某角落,受到壓抑的菁英文化將再次代表革命的一方挑戰主流?反開放、反草根、反平等、反協作?我也不知道…

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繼 2004 到 2006 年 Web 2.0 Buzz 後,2008 到 2009 可以說是 Social Media Buzz 滋滋叫的年代。 (Facebok 和 Twitter 也幫了不少忙。) Buzz 的特色就:剛開始很香很吸引人,但過不久,就會發現同樣的菜色一直被端出來。這時l,大廚手藝就更顯得珍貴。今天看到同仁分享的兩個連結,其中的摘要就屬於這種等級的好菜:

 

好菜的秘密在於醬料,而 Social Media 的神秘醬料就是 “continuous”、“constant” 和 “opportunistic” 三種調味混搭在一起 。

 

  • We’re moving to a world where it is important to listen, inform, activate, entertain and respond to consumers in a more continuous fashion

 

  • This requires the clustering of marketing activities in new ways, having a continuous low-burn marketing effort in place 365 days of the year

 

  • Continuous measurement comes to the forefront and tapping into the pulse of consumers online and responding quickly becomes really critical

 

(source)

 

  • People don’t live in quarterly campaigns, nor do they distinguish communication channels. They expect faster and constant communication with their brands across more media platforms and conversations.

 

  • With culture in constant motion there is also a need for marketers to be quick and nimble, so they can find opportunities where their brands can tap into cultural conversations that are part of people’s lives

 

  • It’s about being opportunistic and leveraging key moments with brand relevance. It’s about owning the current conversation to generate faster and more frequent communication points. It’s a new form of CRM using a mix of planned, anticipative and reactive micro initiatives.

 

(source)

 

非常符合阿宅精神。

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一秒鐘幾千萬上下的企業,真的要花力氣在社群媒體的監控、回應上嗎?

 

我自己的經驗來說,答案是:通常不用。沒錯,和行銷大師的建議不太一樣。

 

部份 social media fanatics 過度誇張了負面 PR 在社群中的擴散效果。畢竟壞評比永遠和好評比共存,被拿出來放大討論的,往往是超級負面案例。 (如 Dell SucksDell 標錯價;先和 Michael Dell 說聲抱歉,剛好都聯想到你們家的例子)。稍微留心不難發覺,論壇、部落格、噗浪、 推特、臉書、MSN 暱稱等社群,永遠會充斥著各式各樣的抱怨。那為什麼這些負面訊息不全然產生病毒式擴散呢?(內心OS:你還抱著任何東西一丟到神奇的 social media 許願池,就會自行擴散的思維嗎。)

 

要讓負面訊息突變成病毒,必須先達到以下標準:

 

1. 負面訊息出現在重量級 influencers 會看到的地方,並被進一步 pick-up,如被重量級部落客轉噗、轉載/評論

2. 這個被攻擊的產品或服務原本就已經有一定的市占率、知名度、或涉入了我們生活很重要的部份

 

負面訊息攻擊對象的本質、出現在哪個地點、被看到,這三個因素決定了負面 PR 炸彈的威力。(所以去猜,或分析網路 influencer 平常都逛哪些地方,比一天到晚想著去操弄、收買 (?!) 他們來得實際。)

 

因此,如果你發現負面訊息出現在每天瀏覽人次從未超過 100 人的部落格、或是出現在從未擠進 PTT 熱門看板前 10 名的討論區,這個議題,被 influencer (the tipping point) 找到的機會就很小;如果這個被攻擊的產品沒啥知名度,也不是和大眾生活普遍相關的偶發事件,那負面聲浪引發雪球般討論潮的機率也很小,如此一來,這些負面訊息被主流媒體「撿到」的機率也就更小。

 

身為一名行銷人員,每天逛逛社群也是挺合邏輯滴。正好逛到有網友在說你公司/公司產品的壞話嗎?等等,別急,先想想,context 是不是正好落在上述的情境之一呢?玩過紅色警戒就知道,拿長毛象坦克去轟小兵是相當沒效率的,聰明如長毛像的你(?!),寶貴的時間,該如何應用才是最好呢?

 

所以,採取行動前,先用1)和2)來篩選這則負面訊息是否值得花人力成本去處理吧!

 

不過…今天我的確是逛到了

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I Can’t Help But…

…make sure you define yourself versus allowing others to define you. They will limit you when instead you should see yourself as limitless when it comes to possibilities…

…when you allow others to define you, you become a bit of a puppet in their hands. Be very wary of this kind of strategy, because some people need to win by getting their competition out of the way instead of being superior to their competition… (source)

 

你看到的 Trump ,就是被報章雜誌 “difine” 的 Trump。我看到的 Trump ,是被他自己 “define” 的 Trump。How? You define yourself by blogging.

 

幾個月前,NY Times 和 WSJ 同時頭版刊登 Trump Entertainment 破產的新聞。 當時的 Trump,是被媒體定義為 loser 的 Trump。讓我們搬張凳子,好好看場川普奧迪賽。屆時,他說的是不是屁話,他有沒有能力 define himself,將不證自明。

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消費時事議題的文化

這次八八水災讓我深刻體驗到台灣媒體(新舊媒體)消費時事議題的能力。電視就不用講了,政論節目、24小時新聞頻道,從頭到尾就是靠消費時事議題撐起來的。新媒體的部份,我發現書籤網站和微網誌也越來越有這樣的趨勢。去看看幾個知名噗浪客的噗文內容每天時事議題佔總噗數多少就知道。

 

「消費」一個議題,和「報導」一個議題的差別在哪呢?

 

如果我們在新媒體上 (e.g. social media services) 討論的東西,只是把主流(舊)媒體討論過的再拿出來炒一次,那麼,**新**媒體存在的意義是什麼呢?大家的回應和 2100 全民開講 call-in 進去的內容有什麼差別呢?(台灣人的民粹精神在噗浪的回應中展現無疑。)

 

只要媒體人繼續搶流量、搶注意力,消費時事議題的文化就不會消失。

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The important thing to remember is that separate events are often separate. If you use the same ineffective approach on one thousand people, it’s not going to start working better just because you use it more often.

Connected events, on the other hand, often benefit from frequency and trust.

(source)

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So context is critical, as Jobs sees it. Innovation happens when great people congregate, bounce off each other. (Good whether and pretty good food also help.) But equally important is mind-set – the determination, as Jobs puts it, “to express something of what [you] perceive to be the truth around [you] so that others can benefit from it.” Innovation is simply the fruit of that determination. Lots of people at Apple, Jobs explained, straddled the distinction between “artist” and “scientist.” They were computer jocks, but thay could have been poets:

 

If you study the people a little bit more, waht you will find is that in this particular time, in the ‘70s and ‘80s, the best people in computers would have normally been poets and writers and musicians.  Almost all of them were musicians. A lot of them were poets on the side. They went into computers because it was so compelling. It was fresh and few. It was a new medium for expression of their creative talents. The feelings and the passion that people put into it were completely indistinguishable from a poet or a painter. Many of the people were introspective, inward people who express how they felt about other people, or the rest of humanity in general, in their work – work that other people would use. People put a lot of love into these products, and a lot of expression of their appreciation came to these things.

 

Source: The Apple Way, p.24

 

Jobs 對科技阿宅的觀察也相當精闢。不過早期的科技人真的都具備詩人、作家、畫家、或音樂家的潛力嗎?

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身邊討厭和喜歡 Donald Trump 的朋友大約是 9 比 1 ,咳咳,討厭是 9。而我往往只好和那唯一的 1 位討論為什麼 Donald Trump 會成為 Donald Trump。 Anyway,不論你對他的觀感如何,我相信,一位願意每週花時間寫點東西和大家分享的好野人就是對社會有貢獻的好野人。一句話:他大可專心賺他的錢、搞他的社交、練好他的小白球。

 

ps1. 好吧,通常反對我的人會說這是他的 ego,這是他 self marketing 的手段,但這世界上誰做事情是沒有動機的呢?他的目的為何並不重要,重要的是你從 Trump 寫出來的想法中搶了哪些留給自己用。

 

ps2. 我相信文章都是他自己寫的。有不少篇文章都是他拿家人、前幾天上過的訪談節目來當議論的 angle。我也相信文章不是預先寫好的,Why? 因為我也常看到他拿上禮拜歐巴馬政府剛出爐的政策來做討論。

 

好。Trump 我幫你辯護完了,來看看你如何回應 “How to face big challenges”:

 

My Response:
Your focus is very important–so be sure to focus on the opportunities, because they are always there. For example, if 90% of companies aren’t hiring, then focus on the 10% that are. I learned to focus less on the problem and more on the solution, which works. Do not allow negativity to cloud your goals or ambitions. Great things have been accomplished in hard and even tumultuous times.

When I faced difficult circumstances, I didn’t underestimate the problems but I refused to give in to them. Realize that you are very strong and very capable. Inspirational quotes help too. Here’s one from Emerson to think about when you might be doubting yourself: “What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us.” I knew I was resilient and focused on the great things I would do once I got through the hard times. I would also ask myself, “Is this a blip or is it a catastrophe?” Earthquakes, wars, tsunamis–those are catastrophes. Put things into perspective and know that within you is the power to persevere and win.  (source)

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最近因為 Apple 拒絕 Google Voice App (併購 GrandCentral 得到的技術) 在 App Store 供大家自由下載,整件事鬧得沸沸騰騰,不但各方具影響力的部落客出手抵制 Apple,現在連美國 FCC 都尬進來調查整件事的公平性。目前最新的進展是 - 禮拜一 Eric Schmidt 宣佈退出 Apple 董事會

 

Google 手機平台的開放式策略,和 Apple 手機平台的封閉式策略正好衝突。而除了手機之外,Google 大舉進攻 OS 市場也加深了對 Apple 的利益衝突。節錄一段 Apple 的新聞稿:

 

“Unfortunately, as Google enters more of Apple’s core businesses, with Android and now Chrome OS, Eric’s effectiveness as an Apple Board member will be significantly diminished, since he will have to recuse himself from even larger portions of our meetings due to potential conflicts of interest. Therefore, we have mutually decided that now is the right time for Eric to resign his position on Apple’s Board.”

 

敵人的敵人不一定是 (永遠的) 朋友呀!想想看,每次開董事會議時, Eric Schmidt 都要在敏感議開始前離席,這感覺也挺囧的。

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媒體界就愛打落水狗。微軟上一季財報不如預期,記者專家們紛紛拿微軟的過去種種作為鞭打。隸屬於華爾街日報數位頻道 – Market Watch,最近就有出現了一篇酸文

 

Let me restate it. Microsoft is a software company. It has been distracted too easily by the success of others in essentially unrelated fields. Here are but a few examples (and there are dozens more):

讓我在次強調,無論如何,微軟骨子裡還是一間軟體公司。然而,一直以來,微軟似乎患了注意力發散症,一見到其他公司在某領域獲得成功,就情不自禁跳入此領域拋頭顱灑熱血。歷史會說話,讓我們來看看過去的例子:

 

  • Years ago in the pre-Internet era, AOL was the talk of the town, so Microsoft had to copy it with MSN. No money was made; no strategic advantage was gained.
  • 在網路剛起飛的年代,人人都談 AOL,因此微軟也學著推出了一個叫做 MSN 的入口網站。當時沒有獲利,也看不出特別的策略優勢。

 

  • Netscape was the rage for a while, so Microsoft threw together a browser and got in that business. The browser was given away for free. No money was made; the strategy got the company in trouble with government trustbusters.
  • Netscape 瀏覽器如日中天的年代,微軟也順勢推出免費 IE,沒有賺到錢,捆綁策略也招來政府干涉。

 

  • During the early days of the Internet, new online publications appeared. Microsoft decided to become a publisher too, rolling out a slew of online properties including a computer magazine and a women’s magazine. They were all folded.
  • 網際網路發展之初,線上出版業看似潛能無限,微軟也很早跟進這股潮流,決定當個出版小霸王,推出一系列線上電腦刊物,甚至是女性雜誌。這些雜誌最後都停刊收場。

 

  • Computer books became popular; Microsoft began Microsoft Press. After an early splash and success, the company soon lost interest and the division now languishes.
  • 隨著電腦叢書越來越熱門,微軟也開設了 Microsoft Press 工具書出版部門。初期的確有獲得小小的成功。然而不久後,微軟即失去興趣,任由此部門凋零。

 

  • Teddy Ruxpin became a hot toy. Microsoft rolled out a couple of robotic plush toys, including the creepy Barney the Dinosaur who sang “I love you and you love me.” The company soon lost interest and dropped the whole thing.
  • 機器熊 Teddy Ruxpin 一度掀起一陣機器人玩具熱潮,微軟搭上順風車,也推出了機器人玩具,如粉紅色恐龍 Barney the Dinosaur,還會唱:「我愛你你愛我」。之後機器人產品線無疾而終。

 

  • AOL-TV appeared, along with other device-centric TV-delivery mechanisms in the 1990s. Microsoft created a Microsoft-TV division as well as a device. It soon lost interest.
  • 1990年代,由於 AOL-TV 與其他網路電視技術的崛起,讓微軟也想分時這塊大餅,因而創立 Mircosoft-TV 部門,並同步開發相關軟硬體裝置。不久後,也對此領域失去興趣。

 

  • Adobe Photoshop became a huge success, so Microsoft hired Alvy Ray Smith to develop photo-editing software. Smith quit when the company lost interest in the idea.
  • 隨者 Adobe Photoshop 大發利市,讓微軟也招募了 Alvy Ray Smith 協同開發影像編輯軟體。最後微軟失去興趣,Smith 離職。

 

  • Yahoo and Google showed that a search engine could be a money maker, so Microsoft copied that idea; it now has Bing.
  • Yahoo 和 Google 證明了搜尋引擎也能成為一台印鈔機,因此微軟也全力仿效,現在這個搜尋引擎叫做 Bing。

 

  • Cloud applications are currently trendy, along with notions about software as a service. Microsoft decides to go into that business.
  • 「雲端計算、」「軟體即服務」堪稱近期科技界最潮的兩大議題,微軟也決定切入這塊市場。

 

  • The Apple rolled out a MP3 player, the iPod. Microsoft came up with its own MP3 player, the Zune. The company also says it wants to stream music.
  • Apple 推出了一系列叫做 iPod 的 MP3 播放器,微軟也推出一系列叫做 Zune 的 MP3 播放器。同時強調 Zune 也能即時串流音樂。

 

咳咳,以上的說法都非常具體。不過呢,在我看來,作者犯了兩個假設上的錯誤。1) 作者假設微軟不再繼續上述投資。 2) 作者假設隨市場起舞,當個後進者是錯誤的策略

 

就1) 來說,作者並非微軟內部員工,僅憑外部觀察,就斷定微軟是否持續進行某項事業體投資,並不客觀。其實  MS Press 仍在正常營運,新書仍搭配新技術陸續推出,之前還有一波每月免費送一本電子書活動。網路電視仍是 Microsoft 投資重心,只是由 90 年代的 Web TV 轉移成 IP TV。MSN 在許多國家已經開始獲利,造成整體線上事業部門虧損的其實是其他線上服務的研發投資,以及整體資料中心成本。Microsoft Slate 雜誌也在 2004 賣給華盛頓郵報集團出場。

 

就2) 來說,隨市場起舞,或遵守「跟隨者」哲學,並非完全不好。起碼對投資人來說,這是個風險相對較小的策略。當其他創新者投入高風險開拓新市場,資源豐富的大公司大可先隔山觀虎鬥,確認需求的確存在後,再進行投資。如此才能剩下正確投資行為所應承擔的 calculated risk。 如 1970年代, VisiCalc 激發出金融界大量試算表電子化的需求,Viscalc 是 spreadsheet 的創新先驅,但卻只獲得數年短暫的成功,後來更大的餅,是由「模仿者」 Lotus 1-2-3 ,以及 1-2-3 的「模仿者」 MS Excel 奪走。經由商業評估後合理的「後進者」決策,在外人看來就像是下了一個當「模仿者」的決定。事實上,情況沒有咱們素人想像中簡單呀。

 

所以說,愛之深,則之切,但打小孩時,相信許多家長都是在不理性的氣頭上。就像是不理性的微軟投資人,正在氣頭上。

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"Google and Yahoo together became the entire market…” 這是去年微軟反對 Google + Yahoo! 合作案的主要立場。當然最後美國 DoJ 也聽進去了。不過這句話道倒觸發我一個想法: 投資 G.Y.M.,也就等於投資了整塊搜尋廣告市場。話說現在夜闌人靜,剛剛突然一股熱血湧上心頭,於是就稍微花了些時間,找了佐證料:

 

1. 根據 IAB 的報告,在美國,2007 年付費搜尋廣告市場約 88 億美金,2008 年成長到 105 億美金,增幅約 20%。同時IDC也預測,整體美國線上廣告市場將從 2007 年 250 億美金的規模,一路成長到 2012 年 551 億美金的規模,年復合成長率約 17% 。輔以 IAB 2008 年統計出的資料來看,美國搜尋引擎廣告約佔全部線上廣告的 45%,而 2007 年則佔了 41%,照這樣的成長規模保守估計,到 2012 年,整體付費搜尋廣告市場起碼可以擴張到 275 億美金 (假設屆時搜尋廣告佔全部線上廣告市場的 50% )。而這僅還是美國而已。(所以..完完全全能體會為什麼 Ballmer 就算讓線上事業部狂燒錢,也要積極搶食這塊「250 億行銷預算黑洞」。)

 

2. search 所需的技術門檻相當高,競爭者幾乎無法切入。 (baidu.com? 好吧,我只能說也許是還有一大部分大陸人還沒試過更好的搜尋引擎。)

 

3. Google 在美國市占率約 65%,Bing 和 Yahoo!合作後市占率約 28%,GYM 幾乎就吃下了美國 93% 大中小型公司行銷預算的一大部分 (again, 請記得,光是美國,這塊大餅就有約 17% 的復合成長率)。

 

4. 其他國家我沒有特別研究,但確定的是 Google 在歐洲約佔了 79% 的市占率 (March 2008, ComScore),新興市場比較較弱,如亞洲的韓國、中國分別擁有國產搜尋引擎龍頭。但我覺得「精準比對廣告內容和搜尋結果」也是另一個門檻相當高的技術 (Ballmer 都說了,整合 Bing 到 Yahoo! Portal 只需要 3 到 6 個月,但整合 AdCenter 和 Panama 要 12 個月的時間),這些國產牌搜尋引擎如果無法推出比 Google、 Bing 更精準 (或至少一樣精準) 的廣告比對技術,業主最後還是會把行銷預算往 Google、Bing 塞。所以我看好 GYM 在新興市場節節壟斷的趨勢。

 

其他產業我不知道,但科技業要找到這麼棒的寡頭壟斷機會也不多了。

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我相信這次 Microsoft 和 Yahoo! 的結盟,執行面上摩擦會小很多,因為:

Bartz: A good share of the people here worked for Qi, so it’s not like they’re unknown. That actually was comforting to me, even though I’ve never met Qi. I hear nothing but good remarks about him. The other thing that’s kind of fascinating is that Joanne Bradford runs our advertising markets and she was…

Ballmer: … sales and programming for Microsoft.

Bartz: So there’s a lot of transfer of personal knowledge back and forth. While all deals are chance because somebody wants something and somebody wants something else, people have really come together in the right spirit. That doesn’t mean there won’t be issues. But Steve and I have a good relationship and we have to start with that. That will reflect down to the organization, because I don’t think either one of us will take any bulls–t from anybody. If either side starts playing (games), we just place a call to each other and the bulls—t meter comes on, right?

我也很喜歡某分析師說的這句話:

As Krans put it in a research note Tuesday: "Microsoft gets its milk without buying the cow."

 

 

Carol Bartz 針對 Yahoo! 股價跌 12% 的回應:

Bartz: I think two things happen. One is some people wanted upfront money. I wanted a high (traffic acquisition cost) rate, because I want a revenue line — in fact, what this deal has given me is virtually all my revenue, or 88 percent of the revenue, with no cost, and so I needed to be able to focus this company on other aspects of the business, and let Microsoft — who we know is maniacal about the search business, so they can take a run against Google. So I wanted to ride their coattails, so I think people forgot all of the money we were saving here and tried to focus just on an upfront payment — which to me, a billion dollars, I’ve got $4 billion, another billion after taxes and I get 50 basis points of interest, it doesn’t really help me from an operating standpoint.

The second thing is, you know, I think people just didn’t think about the timing. You know, everybody who was assuming the last few weeks that there was going to be a deal probably assumed by next quarter we’d be saving a boatload of money and the stock would go up, and they could jump in or out or whatever they wanted to do. So when we said, gee, six months of regulatory and two years after that, I think people went "Aaacck!"

火爆浪子 (?!) 和火爆娘子 (?!) 真是絕配 :D

Q: Steve, are you going to start dropping a few f-bombs just to make Carol feel more comfortable?

Bartz: No! No! OK, this is how it’s going to work.

Ballmer: Ha! Ha! Carol’s going to jump up and down!

Bartz: I’m going to jump up and down and I CAN YELL JUST AS LOUD AS STEVE!

Q: I’m sorry, Carol, what’d you say, you cut out there.

Ballmer: (laughing) You heard her.

Q: Maybe Carol, you’ll need to jump around on stage and say, "Microsoft, Microsoft, Microsoft."

Bartz: I can, I can. And I can eat funny food, too.

Ballmer: We’re both chronically on diets.

Bartz: (Laughing) Chronic misfits. …

 

 

Jason Calacanis 看來非常不爽 Yahoo! 切腹這件事,不過他自己也搞了一個 Mahalo 人力搜尋引擎,立場算比較不中立:

The once proud warrior of the internet space laid down its sword,  knelt at the feet of Microsoft and gutted itself today. (很生動)

All that being said, Microsoft’s obsession with taking Yahoo’s second  place position and adding it to their 3rd place position is not an indication that it’s time to sell. Far from it. When Microsoft is  interested in a space it is a clear sign that you should be investing in it–not selling it.

To say it clearly: Microsoft does not enter a market unless it’s  important, huge and on the way to becoming even bigger. Microsoft is the buy sign, not the sell sign. The people at Microsoft are brilliant and not to be underestimated–history has shown this to be true.

 

 

Ballmer 解釋了為什麼不是 upfront cash deal:

"It could not be all up front, that I could not do," he said. "If everything is all up front, Yahoo! has no motivation to drive searches. I like it better if [the deal] gives us both ongoing incentives" to build the search business.

Yahoo! 也還是能 access 搜尋引擎內容,讓 Display Ads 變得更精準:

And Yahoo will be able to tap into records of searches for its own purposes, like monitoring the online behavior of anonymous users to more efficiently place online display advertisements.

 

 

最後一點是我個人的小小想法。不知道各方分析師是否估算過 Google 搜尋市占率每掉一個百分比,對營收的影響有多大?微軟、雅虎進行搜尋合作後,之後的競爭意義,將是從之前 「Bing 搶了 Yahoo! 搜尋的多少多少市場份額 (確實也是如此,Google 於 Bing 推出後市占率仍持續成長。)」轉變到「Bing + Yahoo-Bing 搶了 Google 多少多少市場份額」。這對 Google 來說有兩方面重大影響。1) 前面提到的槓桿效應:Google 市佔下滑一點,對營收的衝擊等於是乘上好幾倍。2) Google 被迫要花更多心思照顧搜尋引擎事業,勢必分散投資在 Apps, OS Platform 等新業務上的注意力。

 

直搗黃龍大概就是這個意思。

 

souces:

TechFlash

Forbes

BusinessWeek

The Jason Calicanis Web

NY Times

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