Another thing that will never change is that art forms will always draw from the past, reflect on the present, and look to the future. That applies to everything from art and architecture to business.
and I still believe that making deals is an art form, just as business is an art form. As Andy Warhol said, “Making money is art and working is art and good business is the best art.”
I think it’s a good idea to review what constitutes an art. Creating art involves technique. The basics have to be learned and absorbed. Art is never created from a void. There is the past to consider, and how it can be made pertinent to the present, and then with an eye to the future, it can take us to new places. Just reviewing the progression of an artist such as Picasso makes this process very clear.
An indication of life is growth, and we cannot stagnate and expect to get anywhere. Studying the past is laying the foundation, but we cannot stay there. The foundation is merely the preparation for the great designs that will come. If you are a business student, remember that everything you do is laying the foundation for your future–so work carefully and thoughtfully. Artists are known for being meticulous and that applies to business as well.(source)
The central task in a gift economy is to keep the gifts moving. By social debt, barter, and pure charity, gifts circulate and generate happiness and wealth.
One question to ask yourself is: what doesn’t exist that should? Do you see something that is lacking in your neighborhood, your city or in the world? Is there anything you can contribute? Is there a niche waiting to be discovered? There most likely is. If people spent less time complaining and more time in productive and creative thought, we’d all be the better for it. It’s sometimes as simple as going beyond the status quo and having the courage to do so. (source)
YAHOO 第三季淨利 YoY 增加 3 倍，EPS 0.13，打敗市場預期的 0.07。但淨利增加主要來自營運成本大幅削減，這代表 Carol Bartz 沒有辜負鐵娘子的名號，也沒有辜負股東的期望。要看一個企業領導人的經營能力，從成本面檢視績效，比從營收面檢視績效還準，畢竟營收受到太多外在因素的影響。但節流不能吃一輩子，Q4 top line 若仍然持平 ，我想投資人大概也可以考慮出脫持股了。
PO: We’re extremely please to report Apple’s most profitable quarter ever. Thrilled will the results, especially in this economic environment. Operating margin was Apple’s highest ever.
Beating previous Mac sales record by 440,000. Faster than market growth in 19 of the last 20 quarters.
Portable sales up 35% year over year. Big growth in Asia/Pacific market. Back to schools sales were strong, highest sales ever for U.S. education.
Sales of OS X Snow Leopard release was twice as fast as Leopard. (It was much cheaper.)
10.2 million iPods, a year ago we sold 11 million. 50% of recent iPod buyers were still buying their first iPod. People love the iPod nano’s new video camera.
Sales of iPod touch were up 100% year over year. App Store and new $199 helped this.
Over 70% for share of U.S. MP3 market.
iTunes had another great quarter. Customers love iTunes 9. Store in 23 countries, iTunes is the worlds largest retailer. 7,500 films now.
New record for iPhone sales.
New record for iPhone sales. Response to iPhone 3GS is tremendous. Leading in JD Power report in consumer and business.
Looking forward to selling the iPhone in China next month. Also expanding carriers in UK and Canada.
85,000 apps now, 2 billion downloads – half billion in September quarter alone.
Apple retail stores had a record quarter. Revenue $1.87 billion versus $1.72 billion a year ago. Most Mac sales ever, about half were to new customers. Opened 15 new stores; now have 273 stores.
Why’d we do better than expected? We sold more Snow Leopard and spent less on iPod transition than planned. And component costs were below what we expected.
$34 billion in cash at end of September versus $31 billion last quarter. We still plan to use this for preservation of capital.
In September, the new accounting rules were approved, so that will change things for us (see above). We don’t know how much that will add, but it should add a good amount. We’re pleased with this new rule.
We have to do this by Q1 2011, but we can do it in 2010. We’re thinking about it right now, but nothing more specific for right now.
Confident in new product pipeline. Very enthusiastic about the year ahead.
P/E to normalized growth analysis yields $635 price target At $635, Google would trade at 23X 2010E EPS of $27.66, a PEG of 1.5X our 16% 2010 - 2013E EPS CAGR, 13X 2010E EBITDA, and a 4% 2010E FCF yield.
Based on an after-market price of around $547, Google trades at a 2010E P/E of 20X and a PEG multiple of 1.3X, compared to the group medians of 23X and 1.2X, respectively.
順勢交易就像民主政體，有時它看起來沒那麼好，但它比世上其他東西都好。我們要依賴「買進並持有」嗎？我看那應該叫做「買進並祈禱」(buy and hope)。我們虧損時還要加碼攤平嗎？世界太大，實在難以分析，基本面太廣大了。我們必須積極、堅持地推廣順勢交易，並且說明它的真實面貌：能夠在正確時間進入正確市場，限制災難影響程度的風險管控系統。 — 傑瑞.帕克
在 Earnings Call 當中，財務長提到 Mobile Search Q/Q 成長 30%，未來 Mobile Search 將是獲利成長的一大引擎。發展 Android 中長線來看到底是不是正確的策略呢？至少我已經在電視、戶外廣告看到不少 Android Phone 的廣告了，如果第一步是讓手機硬體廠商接受這款 OS，那麼這個初步目標已經達成。加上 Nokia Q3 財報挺慘的，消費者轉向擁抱 Smart Phone 的態勢已經非常明顯。
GOOG 財務長 Patrick Pichette 回應內容：
Again, we don’t give the detail numbers. On a quarter over quarter basis, mobile searches grew 30% on Google. It tells you something about the mobile space, the smartphones, and how they are transformative. They are basically transforming how people live on a mobile basis. If we move forward the adoption of these mobile phones by lowering the cost because it is open source, think of how many searches [that will produce].
1983 年， Richard Dennis 展開了著名的海龜交易實驗，入選的這十多位海龜，在五年的期間創下績效可觀的交易成果。但十多年來，當初表現最好的海龜，卻不一定能在離開「水族箱」後，獲得財富上或事業上的耀眼成就。Baylor University 的 Nancy Uptopn 與 Don Sexton 教授指出日後成功的海龜，和表現平平的海龜，其差異的分水嶺就在於企業家特質：
1.一個球棒和一顆球合計1.1美元，已知球棒比球貴1元，請問一個球幾元？ 2.5台機器花五分鐘可以生產5個產品，100台機器生產100個產品需要多少分鐘？ 3.有一個湖，湖中的水草覆蓋湖面的面積每天增加一倍，這個湖在第48天時被水草覆蓋滿，請問第幾天的時候湖面已經被水草覆蓋一半？(翻譯 by PJHuang)
最後補上 Shane Frederick 教授 CRT 研究報告的引言，難得有學術報告看了第一段後，會讓人有繼續讀下去的衝動。
People with higher cognitive ability (or “IQ”) differ from those with lower cognitive ability in a variety of important and unimportant ways. On average, they live longer, earn more, have larger working memories, faster reaction times and are more susceptible to visual illusions (Jensen, 1998). Despite the diversity of phenomena related to IQ, few have attempted to understand—or even describe—its influences on judgment and decision making. Studies on time preference, risk preference, probability weighting, ambiguity aversion, endowment effects, anchoring and other widely researched topics rarely make any reference to the possible effects of cognitive abilities (or cognitive traits).
A study last year conducted by members of PRS for Music, a nonprofit royalty collection agency, found that of the 13 million songs for sale online last year, 10 million never got a single buyer and 80 percent of all revenue came from about 52,000 songs. That’s less than one percent of the songs. (source)
根據統計資料，去年一千三百萬首線上販售的音樂中，有一千萬首一次都沒賣出去過。如果這一千萬首歌的作者沒花多少心力在構思、創作、錄製、散布這些歌曲就算了。但假如他們真的花了不少心力在賭這條長尾呢？大家似乎忽略了ROI這件事。說到底，當尾巴的那個 (Amazon, iTunes Store) 比在尾巴裡面當毛的的那個 (那一千萬首 white label music) 有賺頭。
人性其實沒那麼可悲，只是 soical or not social 就像惡靈古堡的病毒一樣，是屬於 all or nothing 那類。一旦組織內有人被咬一口，則 social 的必要性就會完全擴散，再怎樣專業理性的人，也逃不過變成 zoombie 的命運。
唯一能抑制 social 病毒的，就只有確保群體和病毒徹底隔離。有沒有這樣的群體呢？有，高中大學的社團是不是這樣？還記得大家心無旁鶩，共同朝同一個目標努力的感覺嗎？只可惜這樣的人出了社會，往往發現自己過去是如此的「天真」，急著想把自己變得更加社會化。而學校也成為理想的最後一道牆，成為「出社會」與「還沒出社會」的分水嶺。
還來得及反社會嗎？就像這位同學說，公司的 trader 同事，都穿得像 Google 員工一樣來上班，表象不一定要和刻板印象符合，就如同要在社會上立足，不一定得聽長輩 social 那一套。
