Investment is the noblest activity for an ideal manPosts RSS
Posted in Investment on Nov 29th, 2009 繼續閱讀 »
9) The NASDAQ’s Internet Index is up 128% over the past year suggesting that wall street loves the internet sector again. Can a vibrant Internet IPO market be far away? (source)
符合預期 ，APPL Q4 營收有機會比預期漂亮。AMZN 希望這次杜拜出包有機會介入。
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Posted in Marketing Thought, Quote on Nov 26th, 2009 繼續閱讀 »
When the market changes, you may be seeing all the new opportunities and problems the wrong way because of the solutions you’re used to. The reason so many organizations have trouble using social media is that they are using precisely the wrong hammer. And odds are, they will continue to do so until their organization fails. PR firms try to use the new tools to send press releases, because, you guessed it, that’s their hammer. (source)
Bonus Quote
Instead, you gain converts by winning at something the existing provider didn’t think was so important. (source)
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…The problem with being an amateur scientist is precisely the reason that marketers relish the opportunity to sell to us, the amateurs: we make stupid decisions, easily manipulated by those who might choose to do the manipulation (on their behalf or on ours). …
…The news here is not that people are irrational, giving too much credence to the dramatic and the local and the short-term (that’s not news), but that people have added a veneer of scientific rationality to their irrational decisions. …
…This is one of the problems with breast cancer screening. It appears to give information, really good information, but in practice, it doesn’t. Since the information is vivid, we give it too much credence. … (source)
1. 這世界上每天有數以千百億計位元的新資訊產出，但對少數來說， 99% (?) 都是 noise。
2. 為什麼 insight 這麼少？因為大眾不喜歡思考。insight 沒有市場。
3. 吸收資訊原本就不是人類為了生存而演畫出來的能力，那是為了社交所演化出來的能力。
4. 我們應不應該繼續餵大眾簡單的東西？應該。不然人類社會賴以運行的主從關係會瓦解。
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Subscriptions are well-honed tools used by the soft world of magazines and theater, among others. Could subscriptions really apply to old order physical products, like say, food? The idea of subscribing to food is not so outlandish. Forty years ago subscriptions to milk were quite common. There were also subscriptions to bread and beer and other staples. Subscriptions tend to emphasize and charge for intangible values: regularity, reliability, first to be served, and authenticity, and work well in the arena of "as if free." (source)
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Posted in Google, Investment, Microsoft on Nov 23rd, 2009 繼續閱讀 »
剛剛又看了一篇分析報告。這兩天傳出 News Corp. 正在和 GOOG 協商三年前談定的 My Space 廣告合約續約問題。三年前的合約內容是，只要 MySpace 旗下的資產為 GOOG 帶來某個數字以上的流量，GOOG 就保證每年支付 300m 給 News Corp.。然而大家也看到恰好就是這兩年來，MySpace 被 Facebook 搶走了不少流量，外加後來 GOOG 內部評估後，發現 300m/y 的價位實在是過於高估，因此今年強勢表示要降價，不然就不續約了。(分析師認為，300m/y 讓 GOOG 的營利率減少了 100 bps。)
因此最近 News Corp. 吵著要全面禁止 GOOG access 到包含 MySpace 在內的旗下資產，就可能只是個恐嚇動作，為的是保住合約。實際情況不可能發生。另外謠傳的全美出版業聯合抵制 GOOG 則更不可能，因此這樣就讓國外的出版業競爭者有機可乘。畢竟消費者只希望能輕鬆搜尋到想看的新聞。
這時很有趣的事情發生了，市場開始揣測 MSFT 會不會趁勢介入，把這個 deal 吃下來，藉此來幫 Bing 和廣告事業搶市占率。但分析師認為可能性也不高，因為股東會反彈 xD。
我是支持啦，因為 MSFT 擁有 GOOG 尚未投入的娛樂市場，有 Xbox，有 Zune、Zune Marketplace；花 300m 買張入場券，讓這些資產和 MySpace (e.g. music streaming services) 多點緊密合作，其綜效是可以高過 GOOG 的。
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Posted in Google, Investment on Nov 23rd, 2009 繼續閱讀 »
拜 AdMob 併購案所賜，Goldman Sachs 又微幅調昇未來兩年 GOOG 的 rev. estimation。但 EPS 和 net income 略為調低 — 前者受到併購發行的 750m，約 5% 新增總流通股數稀釋影響，後者則是併購後，TAC 預估為 60%，衝擊到營業利益率。
我的確看到不少 iPhone 免費 (熱門) App 是採用 AdMob 的機制來遞送廣告。mobile search 和 mobile display advertising 這兩隻小金牛在 GOOG 的照料下應該很容易養大。
原先 Android 平台上的 Apps 和 mobile search ads 的獲利模式關係比較小，但現在有了 AdMob，應該也能加速 GOOG 在 mobile 領域投資的回收速度。
簡單來說，GOOG 算是一間運氣不錯的公司，當然也是有實力，這幾年做對決策的次數比做錯決策的次數多，這造就了大方向，也造就一大堆 startup。如果說 MSFT 的 ecosystem 圍繞在 partner / distributor 身上，那 GOOG 就算是把整個 web-based startup 都當成是自己的 ecosystem。
過去我曾跟著一堆「專家」認為，GOOG 的 98% 獲利來源都是廣告，這可是相風險相當高的結構，但這次金融風暴算是讓我們看清事實 — 事實就是，當你看對趨勢，就是要重壓。而未來五年，除非有「無法預料」的科技重大突破，線上產業的獲利機制仍然會以廣告為主，micro-payment 和 freemium model 為輔。(我認為只要多注意某個領域，則此領域之後會發生的重大突破其實都會在一堆 noise 中被看出端倪，例如 Twitter 在 2007 年初就已經被 Michael Arrington 還有 Robert Scoble 大書特書，那年冬天是我每天抱著 PDA 啃 news 的日子，印象相當深刻)。
如果 Internet as a whole 是 GOOG 鎖定的市場，那麼在 Internet 市場飽和之前，GOOG 仍然會繼續賺 easy money。相較於 MSFT 要面對已經飽和的 OS 和 Office Productivity 市場，這場仗，一開始就是建立在不對等的戰線之上。
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Posted in Investment on Nov 22nd, 2009 繼續閱讀 »
稍微碰過投資學的學生都知道，分散風險是最高指導原則。所以今天如果有人說，她買了 Google, Microsoft, Apple 的股票，此人大概是不懂風險管理。不過想想看，歐洲有三個國家在交戰，不論最後誰是贏家，戰勝國獲得的總體利益會大於戰敗國損失的總體利益，此時身為一個精明的投資 (機) 人，你想到最保險的獲利方式是什麼呢？
G.M.A. 三國志，就是一個讓商人發戰爭財的例子。大餅和創新會隨著戰情告急而不斷擴張。
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Instant gratification is a very powerful force, for both consumers and developers. The web is full of success stories that have embraced the power of instant gratification and also full of failures that made people wait too long. (source)
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I said that there are two kinds of api failures that I’ve noticed. The first is when the web app itself is not very popular and therefore developers aren’t compelled to build to its api. That is not an issue with the api itself. The second is when the web app itself is very popular but the api is not so much. (source)
I’ve been thinking about applying the concept of API for content creation on social networking model.
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Posted in Blogosphere on Nov 16th, 2009 繼續閱讀 »
一個故事如何結束，跟它如何開始有很大的關係。
人會做出不理性的行為，是因為相信別人也會行事不理性。
- Carly Fiorina
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第二次世界大戰後，政經局勢丕變，車廠未來前途堪，照理來說，這家公司應該完蛋了。但是，他們沒有放棄…
為維持生計，車廠員工開始種植蔬菜，公司蓋了一座麵粉廠、麵包廠、和木炭廠，也設立陶瓷廠生產瓷器，而其他單位則開始生產鍋碗瓢盆。車廠老闆還派兒子到北方學做魚漿，因為很可能是一項商機。
現在，這個車廠正與美國通用汽車競逐全球最大汽車製造…
(source)
這段話讓我相當感動。聽起來像是封建時代才可能發生的動員令，在資本主義社會中也可能發生，前提是上位者必須像貴族一樣展現十足的領導威能，下位者 (佃農魂) 必須打從內心信服貴族的領導。從猿人到智能人，人天生就是需要領導，民主制度不過是被包裝得比較好的精英主義操縱。人天生就嚮往 “nobleness”，嚮往具有這樣特質的群體來領導、保護他們。
在資本社會的專業經理人制度之下，我們不容易看到退居幕後的貴族，只會看到媒體拼命哄抬的個人式英雄主義。然而貴族永遠都在，貴族體系形成，需要兩個元素：血脈和文化，一旦成型，就是一張八方延展的網，就算嫡系消失，旁系仍會將類似的文化基因傳承下去。
但最吸引我之處在於，翻開族譜，貴族的源頭都是庶民。
這代表任何世代，不論政經制度如何演變，永遠都會有像羅斯柴爾德、像摩根、 像洛克菲勒一樣的平民，透過努力，透過謀略，喚醒原本就屬於他們的天命。
成功的主產品是自己，副產品是自己的血脈。
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Plato describes five types of government in the Republic:
1. Aristocracy- Plato considered this the best form of government; aristocracy embodies wisdom of the philosopher king.
2. Timocracy- military government embodies virtues of honor and courage.
3. Oligarchy- rule by a rich elite, their vice is greed, the rich get richer, the poor get poorer.
4. Democracy- mob rule, and chaos, it represents akrasia people are slaves of their desires and have little self-control.
5. Tyranny- this is the worst form of government. The vice is selfishness, one power crazed person in control. (source)
這就是 social media 的本質。
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Posted in Investment on Nov 3rd, 2009 繼續閱讀 »
1) doesn’t rush to conclusions and doesn’t expect entrepreneurs to do so either
2) flows into a company based on the company’s needs, not the investor’s needs
3) starts small and grows with the company as it grows
4) has no set timetable for getting liquid: slow capital is patient capital
5) takes the time to understand the company and the people who make it up (source)
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I therefore declare war against the world I used to rule,
against what being unfair, unfortunate, unrealistic,
against the past,
against those who don’t live up to what they deserve,
against those who live an easy life,
against those who want more by doing less,
against those who are skin deep but appear to be profound;
I therefore declare war again those whom I once loved,
in the name of my beloved moral statue.
- C. J. W.
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Everybody sees what you appear to be, few feel what you are, and those who will not dare to oppose themselves to the many, who have the majesty of the state to defend them; and in the actions of men, and especially the princes, from which there is no appeal, the end justifies the means. Let a prince therefore aim at conquering and maintaining the state, and the means will always be judged honourable and praised by every one, for the vulgar is always taken by appearances and the issue if the event; and the world consists only of the vulgar, and the few who are not vulgar are isolated when the many have a rally point in the prince.
- The Prince, p. 74
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