高盛又調高 GOOG 目標價了
Posted in Investment, Quote on Dec 29th, 2009
這回主要理由是今年 11 月起， GOOG 在北美和英國地區試驗 Product Listing and Extension Ads，有機會帶來新的營收注益。但不論怎麼看，都有點像是眼見 GOOG 每股市價即將超越之前的目標價 ($635)，所以趕快塞個理由來調高營收展望和 EPS？
Based on economic trends, discussions with ad agencies, and uptake of
Product Listing Ads, we raise 4Q2009, 2010, and 2011 revenue and EPS by 2%-4%, and forecast 15% qoq consolidated gross revenue growth in 4Q (3% faster than consensus) and 2% qoq in 1Q (2% faster than consensus).
– James Mitchell, Goldman Sachs
Product Listing and Extension Ads 圖解
We estimate that:
• The average AdWords CPC in the US is around $0.50, so 100 AdWords clicks on the average listing would generate revenue of $50.
• If the average item listed on Product Ads has a unit price of $40 (matching eBay’s average selling price, excluding automobiles) then at a 10% revenue share, Google would generate $4 per transaction.
• If the conversion rate from clicks to transactions is 10%, then Google would generate revenue of $40 from 100 Product Ads clicks, 20% lower than the $50 it might generate from 100 AdWords clicks.
• However, we assume that the appeal of photographs, plus their novelty in nonimage queries, may encourage users to click at twice the rate of traditional text ads, so that Google could generate $80 from 200 Product Ads clicks in the same space where it would otherwise generate $50 from 100 AdWords clicks. Put another way, 25% more clicks could generate a neutral revenue outcome if CPC is 20% lower for Product Ads than for AdWords, and we believe that Product Ads should generate an uplift in clicks substantially greater than 25%.
– James Mitchell, Goldman Sachs
ps.這 estimation 的假設也太粗糙了吧…我不相信堂堂高盛會端出這麼像在玩模擬城市的 model…請告訴我這是庶民版分析報告才會這樣…
GOOG 做了很多好事，但是特別去注意它「做了哪些能產生直接賺錢機會」的事更加有趣。像這回的 Product Listing Ads 和之前的 Music Search。
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