Credit Suisse: 退出中國？繼續給 GOOG 表現優於大盤評價
Posted in Google, Investment on Jan 13th, 2010
結果是 Credit Suisse 的 Spencer Wang 搶先放出分析報告。話說回來，30% 市占率從市調公司公開的資料就能查到。~ 1.5% 營收貢獻從過去的 ARPU 乘以大陸使用人口再除以總營收就能得到。到底要怎樣才能成為一名偉大的分析師呢？
■ Investment Case: In our view, Google is attempting to balance the business opportunity in China vs. its view on the larger issue of "freedom of speech" and appears willing to sacrifice the former for the latter on principle.
■ Catalysts: In the near term, a possible withdrawal from the China market would have a fairly negligible impact on Google’s financials. We estimate that GOOG has ~30% share in China and that China accounts for ~1.5% of Google’s revenues. However, in this scenario, the longer term risk is that Google cedes too much market share in China to competitors, which it may find difficult to recoup, thus limiting its long run opportunity in the high growth Chinese market, both in core search as well as mobile.
■ Valuation: While our target price is essentially in line with current trading levels, we believe our target price reflects the potential for near term weakness on the China news. However, we maintain our Outperform rating as we do not view Google’s exit from China as a fait d’accompli and believe there is room for GOOG to work out a mutually beneficial arrangement with the Chinese government given political sensitivities.
- Spencer Wang, Credit Suisse
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