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One of the things that is true if you worked at Microsoft, and it’s very stunning for people who come from the outside and come into Microsoft, is that when a company is very, very, very successful, a lot of the challenges that you’re faced with are a direct result of that success. And in Microsoft’s case we have had the ability to say yes and add more over the years in terms of solving more problems for customers, creating more offerings, and it’s really great from an opportunity perspective, because you address more and more of the market. But as a side effect of that you create internal complexity that you really don’t understand until there’s a forcing function that makes you understand it.

- Ray Ozzie  (source)

當一間公司相當成功後,接踵而來的挑戰,往往是過去的成功所堆積的包袱…

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… (安隆、世界通訊) 事件的主角是作假帳。大家即將學到,在相當大的程度上,現代企業會計的基礎建立在一系列預測上,未必反應一家公司的過去歷史。這表示,企業的營運成果有相當顯著的一部分要靠寬大的裁量,而且,經常受到濫權之影響。

 

例如,退休金責任之計算並依此計算成為所得之費用,都需要作許多不確定的預測,以致於計算出來的潛在退休金成本,變動範圍相當大,但都可以合理解釋。每月收取貸款還本付息款項的銀行,在放款還沒完全清償或是違約之前,無法完全確定其放款是否能夠還本付息。反應固定資產經濟價值折減情形的折舊費用,我們知道,受當相當大的裁量之影響,視設備受到科技進步之影響而變成呆滯的預期速度有多快決定。

 

- 艾倫. 葛林斯潘, 我們的新世界, P. 483

 

直到我們發明出更適合 21 世紀的會計原則之前,目前的解法只能對企業財報更加保守看待。下回記得先用銳利的雙眼來幫財報上的數字打折。有賺錢的,就想像實際情況是這家公司其實沒賺那麼多,有賠錢的,就想像其實這家公司賠更多。比如說 Google 上季認列員工選擇權成本這件事,我一直很耿耿於懷… XD

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非理性繁榮

本來只是因為上篇文章需要,找了一下葛老的名言:非理性繁榮 (irrational exuberance )

 

…But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade… (source)

 

一時手滑又找到耶魯大學教授席勒所著的同名書籍<非理性繁榮>簡介,在書中第六章驚見「台灣」兩字: 我們的市場竟有幸被拿來做 case study XD

 

台湾的股民在90年股市泡沫破灭之后,历经多次股市三温暖的洗礼,对本书的感受想必更深。席勒在书中第六章写道,台湾的几次股价大跌,都名列世界前茅,1989到90年股市跌落74.9﹪,为那年最大跌幅国家中的世界第一;五年期股市跌幅较大国家中,台湾也分列第七名与第27名。不过,台湾的投资者似乎一直没有从失败中汲取教训,政府也一直认为“股市兴亡,官员有责”,带给投资人一个“股市会涨,不会跌,如果真的下跌,政府会出面救”的错误观念,股市的机制也以助涨不助跌的原则规划。但台湾的投资泡沫一直不断地破了又吹、吹了又破,真正的原因是政府所扮演的角色有问题,可惜的是当前的股市已经跌到似乎国安基金也无能为力的地步了,投资人必须正视市场机制的存在,这时,席勒的书就更有用了。(source)

 

政府該不該介入市場,何時介入,採什麼方法介入,實在不是我們凡人能夠瞭解的。遙想去年10 月崩盤,台灣政府頒布的組合套餐:上沖下洗3.5 啪,搭配禁止放空令不沾醬,結果是造成無量下跌,一堆權值股每天開盤就跌停鎖死,實在是經典啊!

 

不過上文段落出自大陸的互動百科,席勒實際在書中是輕描淡寫帶過台灣,還是深入剖析,就待閒暇時再去一窺究竟囉。

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綠色緊縮

今天在 TC 看到兩張有趣的圖表:

image

 

(source: PWC/ NVCA)

 

油價越低我們就越不綠。據 2009 年第一季統計資料來看,US VC 投入綠能產業的資金只剩去年同期的 13.5%,成交筆數只剩去年同期的 12.5%。相較之下,網路產業 (10年前市場泡沫罪魁禍首) 的 Q1 VC 投入資金「還剩」去年同期的 42%,成交筆數還剩下去年同期的 45%。 ( 縱軸上的 # of deals 為目測約略值。)

 

話說回來,緊縮市場能把體質不良的公司打出原形,這總比讓一堆阿撒不魯公司在泡沫市場胡亂 IPO 來得好。

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It’s certainly not as bad as many thought in the fall of last year and it’s not as good as everyone secretly wishes it would be. We’ve gone from greed to fear to something else now. It’s a better place but not necessarily a safer place.  (source)

 

市場的情緒,已經從一年前的貪婪,走到半年前的恐懼,再走到最近這種帶點恐懼的貪婪,或說是帶點貪婪的恐懼

 

這是什麼意思呢?這應該是常態又回來囉。常態就是:人人都想當學巴菲特在別人恐懼時貪婪;在別人貪婪時恐懼 (到此為止都是想法階段),一旦確定要行動了,道行不夠深,自己跟自己多空交戰中…

 

image

 

今年以來,DJIA  的跌幅 7.98%,S&P 500 跌幅 4.75%,NASDAQ 甚至逆勢漲了5.21%。也算是公道。我認為科技股只是外傷,但金融股是內傷,外傷好比較快,內傷好得慢,但如果好好利用這個時點休養生息,等待機會,說不定也能像張無忌一樣,在中玄冥神掌之際練成九陽神功…

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金融衍生商品的本質是什麼呢?和美元一樣,也是債務!它們是債務的打包,它們是債務的集合,它們是債務的貨櫃,它們是債務的倉庫,它們是債務的喜馬拉雅山。 (source: 貨幣戰爭 )

 

大陸人就是有這種衝撞的氣魄,把中文的韻味揮灑得維妙維肖。

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What really motivates investors, even big VCs, is not the hope of good returns, but the fear of missing out.  - P.G.

 

「大家都上轎了,只有我還沒上轎,左想右想,這怎麼行,還是跟著一起上轎好了。」

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前情提要:一個月前,Forbes公佈了一份50大全美最受景仰企業名單,當時挑出前十名,實驗性各買1000股,每個月做結算,現在是時候來看看績效表現了:

 

最景仰企業排名 企業名稱 3/4 盤中價 4/3 收盤價 MoM 漲幅
1 Apple 91.37 115.99 26.95%
2 Berkshire Hathaway 2,388.00 (B股) 3,004 25.80%
3 Toyota Motor 61.47 (ADR) 75.11 22.19%
4 Google 322.98 369.78 14.49%
5 Johnson & Johnson 47.94 52.15 8.78%
6 Procter & Gamble 47.21 49.63 5.13%
7 FedEx 41.08 50.02 21.76%
8 Southwest Airlines 5.19 6.86 32.18%
9 General Electric 6.40 10.94 70.94%
10 Microsoft 16.31 18.75 14.96%

 

  • 以上投資組合平均月漲幅為 24.32%
  • S&P 500 指數 3/4 – 4/3 期間帳幅為 18.19%
  • 3/4 初始投入金額:US$$ 3,027,950;4/3 結算金額:US$ 3,753,230

 

一個月前立下的績效評估指標為 S&P 500 指數,很明顯地,順手捻來 10 間 Forbes 吹捧的公司,其投資組合表現確實打敗了大盤。心得:猴子射飛鏢理論發酵 (?!)

 

猴子的運氣是否比一般投資大眾好?咱門下月再見分曉!

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次貸風暴也可以很簡單:

次級貸款銀行負責生產,投資銀行、房利美和房地美公司負責加工和銷售,資產評級公司是質量監督局,對沖基金負責倉儲和批發,商業銀行提供信貸,養老基金、政府託管基金、教育基金、保險基金、外國機構投資者就成了資產毒垃圾的最終消費者。這個過程的副產品則是金融流動性全球過剩和貧富分化。 ( source: 貨幣戰爭 )

 

身為現代人,多少要來瞭解一下資產毒垃圾的三大濃縮精華成份 – CDO (擔保債權憑證)、CDS (信用違約交換)、Synthetic CDO (合成型擔保債權憑證),其毒性一波比一波強,服用時不可不慎:

 

1. CDO (擔保債權憑證) 調配秘方:

 

2. CDS (信用違約交換) 調配秘方:

 

3. Synthetic CDO (合成型擔保債權憑證) 調配秘方

 

市場一個不小心,中了上面這些帖子的毒,毒性蔓延到企業採購經理人,他們得了一種叫做對未來展望沒信心的併發症,病情發作時,病患便不自主地產生凍結預算的行為,接著,就是近代史了。

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So I’ve become fond of an approach where the company pays management bonuses on "incremental year ove year ebitda." The way this works is you pick a base year and for the next year you pay management a bonus of x% of the incremental ebitda they generate. The best way to do this is a five year plan with a goal of obtaining a significant increase in ebitda so management has time to make the investments needed to get there. (source)

 

僅是基於當年財報營收、淨利來犒賞管理階層,恐怕會發生長官們只想短線操作,把原本該投資的expenses都省下來美化帳面。所以改用基於EBITDA成長百分比的方式派發紅利比較能長短兼顧。

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It has been 513 calendar days since the stock market peaked on Oct. 9, 2007. Since then, the S.&P. 500 is down 56 percent and the Dow is off 53 percent. On Jan. 29, 1931—the identical number of days after the 1929 market peak—the S.&P. 500 was down 49 percent and the Dow was down 56 percent. The 1929 crash got off to a much faster start, but we have now more or less caught up (source)

 

我的想法:比較一下2008崩盤和1930年代大蕭條,最大不同之處,在於資訊的透明度與流通速度。這讓市場交易者更願意承擔風險、更敢嘗試投機、更有能力看穿老師的技倆,看透外資喊盤,看破媒體隨波逐流的習性。

 

會怎麼收尾沒人知道,但如果現在市場上掌握資訊的投機人比掌握資訊投資人還多,短期內應該沒機會打底。

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不好意思,最近文章都跟Google有關。Google確定將七百六十四萬張員工的股票選擇權重新定價至$308.57,預估將有超過一萬五千名原本持有 ”underwater” 選擇權的員工受惠。在這些潛水狀態的選擇權中,有超過六百萬張履約價格在$500元以上,也就是說,除非Google股價再度飆回$500以上,否則這些員工的選擇權就像曹操愛小喬:夢一場。

 

一般來說,企業景氣不好時為了留住talented員工,才會採取stock options repricing策略。價差的部份,由公司吸收。對股東來說較為不利,因重新定價增加的費用支出 (這邊指分紅費用化之後),會讓財報的bottom line、EPS變得更不好看。Google就在新聞稿中,表示這次的調整,將在未來5年的財報中產生至少4億美金的影響。

 

stock option原先設計的出發點:

 

Advantage:

  1. 激勵員工
  2. 使員工和股東的利益一致

 

但是否重新定價stock options,一直是頗具爭議的作法:

 

Disadvantage:

  1. 員工和股東的利益衝突。同為股東,外部持股人得不到reprincg的好處
  2. 公司股價下跌,員工和管理階層應該負責,而不是透過options repricing來”shield” 他們的bad performance
  3. 加深對公司財報的衝擊

 

回到最option repricing的初衷 — 景氣不好時,希望人才不要跑掉。但股東們可能會問:這是一個Google需要擔心的問題嗎?想要激勵員工更熱血工作,除此之外,沒有其他方法嗎?

 

話說回來,企業下了repricing的決定,多少也意含者高層認為 (或說是賭) 股價未來下跌空間有限。否則這將是場昂貴的敗仗。有點sense的財務長都懂得精算後再下決定。

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世界真奇妙

不到20個月前,花旗的股價還在55元歷史新高:

 

image 

現在則是在1元附近掙扎。上頭這張圖真像是歐亞大陸版塊造山運動。一座座陡峭的喜馬拉雅山2.0正在華爾街比高高。

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Fortune剛公布2009年,前50家最受尊敬、仰慕 (?!) 的企業排名,Microsoft剛好排在第一頁簡介的最後一個欄位 - 第10名,而本年度第一名呢? Apple。沒特別仔細研究criteria,但看描述都是和財務表現有關,倒是突然興起個念頭,想來做個投資實驗:

 

在現在這個時間點 (美東時間3/4早盤),我買入前10名最受景仰之企業股票各1000股,然後我們逐月 (逐年?!) 來看這些企業的表現:

 

最景仰企業排名 企業名稱 3/4 (US Time) 盤中價 購入成本 (1000股)
1 Apple 91.37 $91,370
2 Berkshire Hathaway 2,388.00 (B股) $2,388,000
3 Toyota Motor 61.47 (ADR) $61,470
4 Google 322.98 $322,980
5 Johnson & Johnson 47.94 $47,940
6 Procter & Gamble 47.21 $47,210
7 FedEx 41.08 $41,080
8 Southwest Airlines 5.19 $5,190
9 General Electric 6.40 $6,400
10 Microsoft 16.31 $16,310

* 這樣一來總共花了USD $3,027,950 : D

 

這個portfolio的風險分散程度算是中等,有科技業、運輸業、物流業、民生消費品業、金融業等。但除了Southwest Airline、FedEx和最近跌爆的GE之外,其餘都是平均市值有實力在100 Billion以上的大型企業 (有實力指的是太平盛世時)。Fortune有沒有看走眼,就看平均報酬率是否是能超越DJIA和S&P500的表現。

 

這些企業到底值不值得尊敬呢? 讓我們期待台灣時間4月5日晚上的成績! 喔,不好意思,我是說2014年4月5日…人與人相處總要給點時間才能感受出對方是否值得尊敬,企業何嘗不是呢?

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說巧不巧,幾小時前到波克夏官網查2006致股東信,當時還沒看到2008年的連結,沒想到短短幾小時內竟然隨著年報一起update了( ?!)

 

今年不論是波克夏的財報,或巴菲特的致股東信都反映了經濟態勢,媒體為了搶眼球數,給的標題很直接:“Berkshire Hathaway has worst year on record”、"Buffett accepts blame and faults others"、"Buffett Says Economy Will Be ‘In Shambles’ for 2009"

 

節錄幾段:

 

當78歲的巴菲特說出someting “I have never before witnessed”, 代表事情真的是,大條了:

 

A freefall in business activity ensued, accelerating at a pace that I have never before witnessed. The U.S. - and much of the world - became trapped in a vicious negative-feedback cycle. Fear led to business contraction, and that in turn led to even greater fear.”

 

巴菲特在信中坦承在2008年下了些笨決策。但這並非先例,過去他也曾多次在信中向股東「暢談」自己搞砸了哪些投資部位:

 

During 2008 I did some dumb things in investments. I made at least one major mistake of commission and several lesser ones that also hurt. … Furthermore, I made some errors of omission, sucking my thumb when new facts came in that should have caused me to re-examine my thinking and promptly take action.”

 

"I in no way anticipated the dramatic fall in energy prices that occurred in the last half of the year…"

 

"I still believe the odds are good that oil sells far higher in the future than the current $40-to-$50 price. But so far I have been dead wrong. Even if prices should rise, moreover, the terrible timing of my purchase has cost Berkshire several billion dollars."

 

衍伸性金融商品讓他頭痛到得吃阿斯匹靈:

 

“Improved ‘transparency’ — a favorite remedy of politicians, commentators and financial regulators for averting future train wrecks — won’t cure the problems that derivatives pose. I know of no reporting mechanism that would come close to describing and measuring the risks in a huge and complex portfolio of derivatives. Auditors can’t audit these contracts, and regulators can’t regulate them. When I read the pages of "disclosure" in 10-Ks of companies that are entangled with these instruments, all I end up knowing is that I don’t know what is going on in their portfolios (and then I reach for some aspirin).”

 

他也先為後世財經史學家下好了註解,並提醒史學家別忘了記上一筆2009年政府公債泡沫:

 

When the financial history of this decade is written, it will surely speak of the Internet bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the early 2000s. But the U.S. Treasury bond bubble of late 2008 may be regarded as almost equally extraordinary.

 

信中還是有正面信心喊話:

 

"Amid this bad news, however, never forget that our country has faced far worse travails in the past. In the 20th Century alone, we dealt with two great wars (one of which we initially appeared to be losing); a dozen or so panics and recessions; virulent inflation that led to a 211⁄2% prime rate in 1980; and the Great Depression of
the 1930s, when unemployment ranged between 15% and 25% for many years. America has had no shortage of challenges."

 

Without fail, however, we’ve overcome them. In the face of those obstacles – and many others – the real standard of living for Americans improved nearly seven-fold during the 1900s, while the Dow Jones Industrials rose from 66 to 11,497. Compare the record of this period with the dozens of centuries during which humans secured only tiny gains, if any, in how they lived. Though the path has not been smooth, our economic system has worked extraordinarily well over time. It has unleashed human potential as no other system has, and it will continue to do so. America’s best days lie ahead.

 

 

 

 

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I don’t want to wind up being known as the Jerry Yang of this market (Internet/Search/Advertising),” said Ballmer, 52. “That whole episode left me understanding how shareholders can get frustrated with managements who aren’t serious about performance.” (source)

 

能操能算真用兵,快人快語真英雄。橫批:股東無敵。

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本書最後3.5頁堪稱菁華,透過感性筆調完整呈現了Warren Buffett’s business of life。你可能沒有時間再重讀一次這本磚塊書,但最後這個段落,值得在雪球滾累時重拾回味。

 

When Warren was a little boy fingerprinting nuns and collecting bottle caps, he had no knowledge of what he would someday become. Yet as he rode his bike through Spring Valley, flinging papers day after day, and raced through the halls of The Westchester, pulse pounding, trying to make his deliveries on time, if you had asked him if he wanted to be the richest man on earth – with his whole heart, he would have said, Yes.

 

That passion had led him to study a universe of thousands of stocks. It made him borrowed into libraries and basements for records nobody else troubled to get. He sat up nights studying hundreds of thousands of numbers that would glaze anyone else’s eyes. He read every word of several newspapers each morning and sucked down the Wall Street Journal like his morning Pepsi, then Coke. He dropped in on companies, spending hours talking about barrels with the woman who ran the outpost of Grief Bros. Cooperage or auto insurance with Lorimer Davidson. He read magazines like the Progressive Grocer to learn how to stock a meat department. He stuffed the backseat of his car with Moody’s Manuals and ledgers on his honeymoon. He spent months reading old newspapers dating back a century to learn the cycles of business, the history of Wall Street, the history of capitalism, the history of the modern corporation. He followed the world of politics intensely and recognized how it affected business. He analyzed economic statistics until he had a deep understanding of what they signified. Since childhood, he had ready every biography he could find of people he admired, looking for the lessons he could leaned from their lives. he attached himself to everyone who could help him and coattailed anyone he could find who was smart. He ruled out paying attention to almost anything but business – art, literature, science, travel, architecture – so that he could focus on his passion. He defined a circle of competence to avoid making mistakes. To limit risk he never used any significant amount of debt. He never stop thinking about business, what made a good business, what made a bad business, how they competed, what make customers loyal to one versus another. He had an unusual way of turning problems around in his head, which gave him insight nobody else had. He developed a network of people – for the sake of his friendship as well as his sagacity – not only helped him but also stayed out of his way when he wanted them to. In hard times or easy, he never stopped thinking about way to make money. And all of his energy and intensity became the motor that  powered his innate intelligence, temperament and skills.

 

Warren Buffer was a man who loves money, a man for whom the game of collecting it ran in his veins as his lifeblood. That love kept him going: buying little stocks like National America, selling GEICO to have to money to buy something cheaper, pushing at the boards of the companies like Sanborn Map to do the right thing for the shareholders. It had made him independent and competitive enough to want his own partnership and say no to the chance to be a junior partner to run Ben Graham’s old firm. It made him tough enough to shut down Dempster’s distribution center and fire Lee Dimon; it gave him the determination to break Seabury Stanton. It had tamed his impatience and made him listen when Charlie Munger insisted they buy great businesses, even though listing to other people against his very grain. It stiffened his will to survive the SEC investigation of Blue Chip and to break the strike at the Buffalo News. It made him an implacable acquirer. It also made him to lower his standards from time to time when his turf dried up. Yet it saved him from serious losses by keeping him from abandoning his margin of safety.

 

Warren Buffet was a timid man who shied from confrontation and needed people to cushion him from life’s rougher edges. His fear was personal, not financial; he was never timid when it comes to money. His passionate yearning to be rich gave him the courage to ride his bicycle past the house with the awful dog and throw those last few newspapers in Spring Valley. It sent him to Columbia, seeking Ben Graham, after Harvard turned him down. It made put one foot in front of the other, calling on people at prescriptionist, while they rejected him over and over. It gave him the strength to return to Dale Carnegie after losing his courage the first time. It forced through the decisions in the Salomon crisis to make his great withdrawal from the Bank of Reputation. It lent him the dignity to face years of almost intolerable criticism without counterattacking during the Internet Bubble. He had spent his life contemplating, limiting, and avoiding risk, but in the end he was braver then he realized himself.

 

Warren Buffett would never call himself courageous; he would cite his energy, focus, and temperament. Above all, he would describe himself as a teacher. All his adult like to had sought to live up to the values in him by his father: He said that Howard taught him that the “how” matters more than the “how much”. To hold his ruthlessness in check wasn’t an easy lesson for him. It helped that he was fundamentally honest – and he was possessed by the urge to preach. “He deliberately limited his money,” says Munger. “Warren would have made a lot more money if he hadn’t been carrying all those shareholders and had maintained the partnership longer, taking an override.” Compounded over thirty-three years, the extra money would have been worth many billions – tens of billions – to him. He could have bought and sold the businesses inside Berkshire Hathway with a cold calculation of their financial return without considering how he felt about the people involved. He could have become a buying king. He could have promoted and lent his name to all sorts of ventures. “In the end, ” says Munger, “he didn’t want to do it. He was competitive, but he was never just rawly competitive with no ethics. He wanted to live life a certain way, and it gave him a public record and a public platform. And I would argue that Warren’s life was worked out better this way.”

 

It was the will to share what he knew in an act of sheer generosity that made him spend months writing his annual letter to the shareholders; his joy in showmanship that made him want a mobile home at his shareholder meeting; his pixieish sense of fun that led him to endorse a mattress. It was his Inner Scorecard that made him cling to his margin of safety. It was pure love that turned him into what Munger called “a learning machine.” It was his handpicking skill that let him use the knowledge to figure out what the future might bring. It was his urge to preach that made him want to warn the world of dangers to come.

 

When Warren reached his seventy-seventh birthday, he mused that he had lived one-third of the lifespan of the United States, His age weighed on him; it was getting harder for him to read all day long the way he used to, since one of his eyes was getting a little weak. So he read more efficiently, He had finally gave in and agreed to wear hearing aids. His voice turned gravelly faster then it once did. He tired more easily. But his business judgment was still quick and sharp. He wished he could have the next ten years’ worth newspapers delivered to his doorstep right now. The years ahead weren’t endless, but with luck they could be long. Trees don’t grow to the sky, but he wasn’t scraping the horizon yet. Another new person, another investment, another idea always waited for him. The things left to learn far exceeded what he already knew.

 

“The snowball just happens if you’re in the right kind of snow, and that what happened with me. I don’t just mean compounding money either. It’s in terms of understanding the world and what kind of friends you accumulate. You get to select over time, and you’ve got to be the kind of person that the snow wants to attach itself to. you’ve got to be your own wet snow, in effect. You’d better be picking up snow as you go along, because you’re not going to be getting back up to the top of the hill again. That’s the way life works.”

The snowball he had created so carefully was enormous by now. Yet his attitude toward it remained the same. However many birthdays lay ahead, he would always be astonished each time the calendar turned, and as long as he lived, he would never stop feeling like a sprout. For he wasn’t looking backward to the top of the hill. It was a big world, and he was just starting out.

 

The Snowball, Warren Buffett and the Business of Life, P. 827 ~ P. 830

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市場先生

明明retail sales number出現7個月來第一次正成長(1%),DJIA一開盤還掉到7723點。

 

趁市場先生歇斯底理時狠狠敲他一筆竹槓吧。

 

Equity markets resumed their slide on Thursday despite a report that showed an unexpected jump in U.S. retail sales.

Sales increased 1.0% in what was the first rise in seven months. Economists were expecting a 0.8% contraction. Retail sales excluding autos grew 0.9% in the month against expectations for a 0.4% decline, according to advance estimates released from the Department of Commerce. (source)

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Graham刪減1973年修訂版”The Intelligent Investor”第19章:”Shareholders and Managements”,把原本(1949年版)34頁的份量刪到剩下8頁。不見的一部分,是關於shareholder應actively行使”the investor as business owner”權益的討論 - 經過24年的倡議,Graham坦承以現實情況來說,individual investor (散戶) 根本無法(某方面來說也是懶得)行使監督或影響企業治理的權利。所以他「放棄」了這部份的探討。

 

以下節錄自1949年版19章原文開頭:

“In theory, the stockholders as a class are king. Acting as a majority they can hire and fire managements and bend them completely to their will. But, in practice, the shareholders are a complete washout. As a class they show neither intelligence nor alertness. They vote in sheeplike fashion for whatever the management recommends and no matter how poor the management’s record of accomplishment may be…The only way to inspire the average American shareholders to take any independently intelligent action would be by exploding a firecracker under him…We cannot resist pointing out the paradoxical fact that Jesus seems to have been a more practical businessman than are American shareholders.” 

- P. 497, The Intelligent Investor, Chapter 19 Commentary, Jason Zweig, 2003 Ed. Original Texts: Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor, Chapter 19, 1949 Ed.

 

Graham 40年前放棄了,因為當時沒有網路可以把individual investor的力量連結起來。但現在可不同了,我覺得如果以下3點如果水到渠成,散戶還是有可能發揮影響力的:

 

1. 開發一套web service讓investor建議、投票、連署

2. 政府相關單位為這套service與user行為的法律效益背書

3. 企業尊重(必要時需強制遵守)平台上小散戶集體的決議

 

當然各項建議從起草到通過的過程,需要設定相當高的門檻 (如多階段,一定比例的票數),以防外行領導內行,或是又回到只為少數人(法人機構、持股大戶)謀利益的老作法。

 

現在大多美國企業都用webcast的方式進行earnings call了。用virtal event的方式進行股東大會不是夢想,是已經在發生的事。實體股東大會有座位限制,但線上股東大會就沒有這個問題。不過空間問題解決,時間限制還在(就算進行8小時webcast,也無法讓每位線上與會股東有機會發言)。所以現在我們只差一個可用時間換取空間的中介平台(我上面提到的web service,投資人可以花半年時間在平台上辯論、修整某一項提議),讓多數人(有建設性)的聲音事先被彙整,在線上股東會那天,所有股東與管理團隊只要進行最終的投票、確認等動作即可。

 

這樣一來,還在罵公司經營不善,把成長股搞成地雷股的散戶,就只能怪自己懶惰了。說真的,就算沒有上述的服務,小散戶還是有很多機會參與決策,但股東會通知單願意多看兩眼的有幾人?曾行使委任代理投票權的有幾人?

 

PS. 在Google上搜尋 “webcast earnings call”,相信Graham也會讚嘆科技的力量 :

image

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Here is what you, as a relatively conservative investor, should consider when picking up individual stock:

 

1. Adequate size. No stock smaller than 2 billion market capital (as of 2002).

 

2. Strong financial condition. At least 2-to-1 current ratio (current assets : current liabilities) and more working capital than long-term liabilities (working capital = current assets - current liabilities).

 

3. Earning stability. Positive earnings for each of the past 10 years.

 

4. Dividend record. Dividends paid for at least past 20 years.

 

5. Earning growth. EPS grows at least one-third over the past 10 years. (averaged last 3 years of the 10 year period v.s. averaged initial 3 years of the 10 year period.)

 

6. Moderate P/E ratio. No more than 15 times. (P/E ratio is derived from by dividing current price by averaged earnings over the past 3 years.)

 

7. Moderate price-to-book ratio. No more than 1.5. (Though most stock nowadays are at higher ratios than Graham’s day because of higher proportion of intangible assets.)

 

- Extracted from Chapter 14, The Intelligent Investor, Benjamin Graham, Jason Zweig (Commentary)

 

真的要慶幸我們生活在在如此美好的年代。整個市場不管好貨爛貨,都在跳樓大拍賣啊!

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因為有穩健獲利模式的公司(全球第七大),他們的網站長這樣:

image

image

 

大概也是預期到網路精英們八成會對這個網站有很多意見,因此在網站的footer之上你可以看到這樣一段話:

If you have any comments about our WEB page, you can either write us at the address shown above or e-mail us at berkshire@berkshirehathaway.com. However, due to the limited number of personnel in our corporate office, we are unable to provide a direct response.

 

附上隱藏寶物一份:

image

有了它,你可以省下買巴菲特教你ooo和巴菲特一起ooo的書錢。當然,這本也不用考慮了。

 

說真的,幾個Hyper Link和Table語法,就已經很夠21世紀資訊時代使用了。什麼RIA、User Experience、Virtual Reality、Telepresence,應該都是工具開發商和行銷人員打造出來的類固醇吧。

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The Snowball還有最後幾段佳句書摘還沒和大家分享,最後幾個章節可說是全書菁華,尤其是最後一段,一口氣把Buffett的人生、性格做了濃縮版回顧總結。好酒當然不能這麼快拿出來,這邊先分享Buffett也常提起的”Ovarian Lottery”:

 

Buffett then spoken of the Ovarian Lottery. “I have been very lucky. I was born in the United States in 1930 and won the lottery the day I was born. I had terrific parents, a good education, and I was wired in a way that paid off disproportionately in this particular society. If I had been born long ago or in some other country, my particular wiring would not have paid off the way it has. But in a market system, where capital-allocation wiring is important, it pays off like no other place”

 

Buffett 90年代和Bill Gates同遊大陸,遊經長江三峽,看到在岸邊努力拉纜繩泊船的年輕人(a.k.a. 沒有抽中Ovarian Lottery),不禁向Gates感嘆道:縱使這些年輕人當中,其中一位擁有Gates的IQ與潛力,出生在這樣的環境、社會中,這孩子不論怎樣努力,恐怕一輩子都是個船夫,一輩子都無法飛黃騰達。(當然10多年後的大陸改變很多了,現在聽說只要你肯努力,遍地是機會。)

 

感嘆之餘,Buffett也認為他所賺來的財富,不過是種claim checks,最終都要「還」給社會:

 

All long, I’ve felt the money was just claim checks that should go back to society. I am not an enthusiast for dynastic wealth, particularly the alternative is six billion people who’ve got much poorer hands in life than we have, getting a chance to benefit from the money. And my wife agreed with me.

 

所以,一點都不意外,Buffett決定把財富都捐給比爾蓋茲的基金會運用:

It was clear that Bill Gates had an outstanding mind with the right goals, focusing intensely with passion and heat on improving the lot of mankind around the world without any regard to gender, religion, color, or geography. He was just doing the most good for the most people. So when the time came to make a decision on where the money would go, it was a simple decision.”

 

能出生在台灣,生活在網路世代,我們也算是贏了某一期的Ovarian Lottery,只可惜去年開始遇到金融風暴,獎金兌現時間可能要延後了。不過呢,我相信等待是值得的,大獎一直沒人領,只會越滾越大,君不見1929年大蕭條之後,隨之而來的是史上最長的一段bull market period嗎?!

image

(source: The Big Picture)

 

延伸閱讀:有位大陸同胞把Ovarian Lottery直接翻譯成「卵巢彩票」,真是鏗鏘有力啊!

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“People ask me where they should go to work, and I always tell them to go to work for whom they admire most.,” he said. He urge them not to waste their time and their life.”It’s crazy to take little in-between jobs just because it looks good on your resume. That’s like saving sex for your old age. Do what you love and work for whom you admire the most, and you’ve given yourself the best chance in life you can.” - The Snowball, p.708

 

看了這一段話,一定也會有人想問巴菲特爺爺這樣的問題:到不喜歡的公司做自己喜歡的工作,和到喜歡的公司做自己不喜歡的工作,哪個看起來比較有可能解套呢?

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當年巴菲特怎樣都不想買也不想碰電腦,就連比爾蓋茲打算派全Microsoft最正的女生去教他操作,並保證過程一定會「相當愉快」,巴菲特還是不買單。:D

“Bill started trying to convince me to get a computer. I said, I don’t know what it it’s going to do for me. I don’t care how my stock portfolio is doing every five minutes. And I can do my income taxes in my head. Gates said he would pick out the best-looking gal at Microsoft and send her to teach me how to use the computer. He would make it totally painless and pleasant. I told him, ‘you’ve made me an offer I almost can’t refuse, but I’ll refuse it.’”

- The Snowball, P623

 

有趣的是,最後打動巴菲特用電腦的動機竟是是玩網路橋牌,不玩還好,一玩還整個上癮,好幾年來都用T-bone這個帳號遊走江湖。到底有多入迷呢?這邊有段充分顯示出巴菲特“focus”人格特質的段落:

 

“Before long, Buffett was so engrossed in Internet bridge that nothing could disturb him. When a bat got into the house and flapped around the TV room, banging into the walls and entangling itself in the curtains, Astrid shrieked, ‘Warren, there’s a bat in here!’ Sitting across the room in his frayed terry-cloth bathrobe, staring at his bridge hand, he never move his eyes from the screen as he said, ‘It’s not bothering me any.’ Astrid called the pest-control people and they removed the bat, all without disturbing his bridge game.”

- The Snowball, P 635

 

可別小看“focus”, 這可是世界首富和世界第二首富(當年)認為自己能小有成就的關鍵:

“…at dinner, Bill Gates Sr. posed the question to the table: What factor did people feel was the most important in getting to where they’d gotten in life? And I said, ‘Focus.’ And Bill said the same thing.”

- The Snowball, P 623

 

我相信一般人都有focus在手邊工作的能力,但終其一生,focus在一種理念、一種志向、一種夢想,並努力去實踐,就不是那麼容易了。

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The Snowball中,巴菲特生動口述當年初次和比爾蓋茲見面情況,一開始蓋茲還小有抱怨,說股票不是他的菜,爸爸媽媽的和好友的聚會為什麼硬是要逼他去…他本來決定去一下就要閃人…but…

 

“We talked and talked and talked and talked and paid no attention to anybody else. I started asking him a whole bunch about his business, not expecting to understand any of it. He’s a great teacher, and we couldn’t stop talking.” - The Snowball, P623

 

兩人能像磁鐵一樣,初次見面就「意外」互相吸引,聊到不鳥身邊其他人。這和兩人性格中,恰好都很強烈的”preacher/teacher”基因有很大關係。話說我也能體會這種種氛圍,當遇到價值觀及興趣領域相似的朋友,外加兩個人都超級愛發表意見,那種越談越High的感覺往往能激盪出突破性的idea。

 

物以類聚 (雖然當時雙方都不知道對方未來會變成世界首富),但若不是有「名流社交圈伊莉莎白」之稱的Katharine Graham(Washington Post的家族大老闆)從中牽線,兩人也不會在90年代初有見面機會。貴人(key man/woman)的重要性就像是0或1的權重,哪怕你是商業天才,出生在對的時間對的國家,想出能改變人類的獲利模式,職涯路上,倘若若遇不到貴人,所有的「戰鬥力」(天份 +努力+好運)最後恐怕得乘以權重”0″,一切都是枉然,成功遙遙無期。

 

兩人的友誼有多深呢?往往有人懷疑一切只是巴菲特決定把財產捐給Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation當下,媒體塑造的假象,(我承認一開始我也有點懷疑),然而本書透過巴菲特口述,細描寫兩位帶著老婆同遊中國、定期約打橋牌、互相參與對方生日派對、婚禮宴會等重要家庭聚會細節,這種等級的互動,你覺得算不算好友呢?

 

全書描寫巴菲特和比爾蓋茲互動的橋段不少,下回再與大家分享。

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有時候我只能說,巴菲特和比爾蓋茲能成為好朋友也真是奇蹟啊!他對“電腦+人= out of control”的觀點,和蓋茲的“電腦+人 = unlimited potential”的理想簡直是差了十萬八千里啊…

 

“To Buffett, it was obvious that the combination of fallible human beings and judgement-free computers in a completely unmonitored, unsupervised environment, meant an almost unlimited potential for things to go wildly.” - The Snowball, P557

 

1987年黑色星期一,全球股災,道瓊指數一天跌掉22.6% (相較之下2008的股災還沒破這個紀錄),關於造成股災的原因至今仍有爭議,其中普遍認Program Trading是首席罪魁禍首。當年的超炫科技-電腦,在交易員眼裡就像Holy Grail一樣,彷彿只要用電腦公式套利,就是穩賺不賠。但是呢,在程式的model之下,遇到停損點則強制賣出;想像一個全球主要鉅額交易(幾乎)都利用電腦自動化買賣的網路,當起先一個小事件導致小幅下跌,然而網路中「理性」的電腦都搶在這一瞬間乖乖停損時,下一秒賣壓就像滾雪球般滾了出去(可惜是下坡),此時,電腦只會做一件事:繼續賣,再下一秒,仍是破停損點,電腦只會繼續做一件事:賣賣賣…然後…停損點破破破…然後賣賣賣….你的電腦賣不停,我的電腦也賣不停,最後就只有緊急宣佈休市來終止雪崩..

 

有時候想想,人性也不一定都是悲劇的來源,一個完全理性、完全效率的世界,會讓人迷失在停不下來的錯誤中。

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俗話說的好,好的東西放越久就會越好,爛的東西放越久就會越爛,巴菲特認為,寧可用普通便宜的價格,買下第一流的公司,也不要用超級便宜的價格,買下第三流的公司。人生許多抉擇也能套用這個原則。應該多著眼在「價值」之上,而不是在「要付出多少代價」來換取價值之間鑽牛角尖。Think about how do(should) we choose a girl/boy friend?

 

我一直認為資本經濟中,有一條分水嶺,遠在分水嶺之上的公司(或人),是好還會更好的一群,在分水嶺附近的公司(或人),以及分水嶺之下的公司(或人),是會逐漸走向頹敗的另一群。也就是說,一直維持普通,時間將是你的敵人,普通乘以10年、 20年、30年,最後只會等於越來越普通,在資本市場中,普通就是落後者,沒有進步就是失敗。(想想一間公司的獲利,或是你的持股總值(或總財產)20年來維持不變,看似沒有賠錢(或負債)就是贏家,但事實上,還原20年後的現值,你已經是市場的輸家了,因為不可避免地,市場註定要走向通膨。) 唯有一開始不惜代價(repeat: 不過於計較付出,著眼在日後換來的價值),堅持讓自己卓越,或買下真正好的公司,才能和時間當好朋友,有朝一日,才能搭上資本主義特權階級便車。

 

一言以蔽之,好公司好股票,「夠便宜」就買,不用等到「有夠便宜」再買,因為一來不一定等的到,二來日後的增值幅度會讓你想取笑當初斤斤計價的自己。

 

來看看巴菲特怎麼說:

“Time is the friend  of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre. You might think this principle is obvious, but I had to learn it the hard way…After ending our corporate marriage to Hochschild-Kohn, I had memories like those of he husband in the country song ‘My Wife Ran Away with My Best Friend and I Still Miss Him a Lot.’… It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. Charlie understood this early; I was a slow learner. But now, when buying companies or common stocks, we look for first-class businesses accompanied by first-class managements. That leads right into a related lesson: Good jockeys will do well on good horses but not on broken-down nags.”

- The Snowball, p334

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巴菲特也認為,用「質」(qualitative) 的面向來評估你想買進的公司股票,終究會比用「量」(quantitative) 的面向來評估來得可靠。量是一時的,質是長久的。話雖這麼說,但我覺得對普羅大眾來講,以一個小散戶的身份,是很難窺測到一間公司的文化、管理風格、領導人性格(以及目前是那一位高層得勢)、守法程度、在供應商與客戶間的信用口碑、部門間關係(偏向合作或鬥爭)、員工向心力(與心態)、危機處理能力(甚至是有或沒有發生過危機)…等等「摸不到」,或「不法定公開」的面向。然而,這些看不見的因素卻早已深植在一間公司的根裡,小散戶很難知道是誰,在何時,在何處,種下一顆導致一間公司數年後失敗或成功的惡(善)果。

 

別懷疑,對於隨便一間企業,你所認定的「質」,80%都是媒體(加公關部門操作)塑造出來的。運氣好的話,你可以從在那間公司上班的友人之間聽到另外20%中的5%真相(另外15%是八卦)。想知道更多「質」的真相,你有兩個選項:1)成為有影響力的大戶 2)自己到那間公司工作。

 

上面都是我的想法,接下來才是真正節錄自p.265的一段話:

Buffet would later write to the partners that buying “the right company (with the right prospects, inherent industry conditions, management, etc.)” means “the price will take care of itself…This is what causes cash register to really sing. However, it is an infrequent occurrence, as insights usually are, and of course, no insight is required on the quantitative side — the figures should hit you over the head with a baseball bat. So the really big money tends to be made by investors who are right on qualitative decisions.”

- The Snowball, p.265

 

可惜這個世界上有太多重量不重質的投資者了…因為「質」摸不透,又難判斷好壞,也沒有嚇人的數字,沒辦法做成精彩刺激的圖表,很多財經記者、分析師、名嘴、投顧老師、財經書籍,都會刻意避開這一塊吃力不討好的領域,反正說了(寫了)也沒幾個人看…所以這方面的功課就待有心的投資者慢慢DIY挖掘了。Hint: going back to your b-school and consulting your professors should be a good starting point. At least you could count on some hard-core scholars who are not corrupted by volatile numbers on the markets.

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  5. 佳句書摘 – The Snowball (12) - END

靠著每週末一點一點堆雪球,終於在2009年的第一天,看完「滾雪球:華倫‧巴菲特和他的財富人生」、或台灣版書名「雪球–巴菲特傳」(The Snowball Warren Buffett and the Business of Life)。全書70%著墨於”humanity”,寫巴非特與周遭親友間的互動,以及他的內心世界(部份細節東方人來說,甚至是個人隱私等級的秘密,不太可能在一本名人傳記中看見)。剩下30%才是與他的商業智慧、理財觀念有關的片段。如果你抱著看致富秘笈心態來看這本書,可能會有些失望,但對我來說,這些內容不但完整呈現出”the intrinsic value of Buffett”,也讓我有機會從內而外認識一位史上最成功的投資家。

 

And here are some of my favorite quotes from the book:

 

以下是他在1999年 (.com/科技股如日中天的年代) Buffett在Sun Valley年度高峰會中,對眾多科技、媒體界大老版發表的壓軸談話,而實際內容更像是為全球網路創業家、網路股投資人所作的呼籲 (He was then criticized by media and some shareholders as the “old-fashioned guy” who missed the opportunity to make investments in Tech/Internet industries.):

“There were two thousand auto companies: the most important invention, probably, in the fist half of twentieth century. It had an enormous impact on people’ lives. If you had seen at the time of the first cars how this country would develop in connection with autos, you would have said, ‘this is the place I must be.’ But of the two thousand companies, as of a few year ago, only three car companies survived. And at one time of another, all three were selling for less than book value, which is the amount of money that had been put into the company and left there. So autos had an enormous impact on America, but in the opposite direction on investors…”

“Now the other great invention of the first half of the century was the airplane. In this period of 1919 to 1939, there were about two hundred companies. Imagine if you can see the future of the airline industry back there at Kitty Hawk. You would have seen a world undreamed of. But assume you had the insight, and you saw all these people wishing to fly and visit their relatives or runaway from their relatives or whatever you do in an airplane, and you decide this was the place to be… As of a couple years ago, there had been zero money made from the aggregate of all stock investments in the airline industry history.”

“It’s wonderful to promo new industries, because they are very promotable. It’s very hard to promote investment in a mundane product. It’s much easier to promote an esoteric product, even particularly on with losses, because there’s no quantitative guideline.” 

- The Snowball, P18 - P19

 

以上三段話,台下audience聽在耳裡應該是感到有些逆耳 (台下聽眾有Amazon的Jeff Bezos, Yahoo的Jerry Yang, Bill Gates, Andy Grove, Steve Jobs等科技巨擘),但一年多後也證明歷史總是一再重複,甚至壓縮重複演出的時間

 

其餘quotes續待…

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Thus a risk of leverage is that it takes away choices.

 

- The Snowball, P.531

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Class 1 truths were absolutes. Class 2 truths became truths by conviction.

 

If enough people thought a company’s stock was worth X, it became worth X until enough people thought otherwise. Yet that didn’t affect the stock’s intrinsic value - which was a Class 1 truth.

 

- P 147, The Snowball

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* A stock is the right to own a little piece of business. A stock is worth a certain fraction of what you would be willing to pay for the whole business.

 

* Use a margin of safety. Investing is built on estimates and uncertainty. A wide margin ensures that the effects of good decisions are not wiped out by errors. The way to advance, above all, is by not retreating.

 

* Mr. Market is your servant, not your master. Graham postulated a moody character called Mr. Market, who offers to buy and sell stock every day, often at prices that don’t make sense. Mr. Market’s mood should not influence your view of price. However, from time to time he does offer the chance to buy low and sell high.

 

- p. 147, The Snowball

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Warren thought of all businesses this way. The employees who managed the business shared in earnings that their labor produced. But they were accountable to their owners who got the gains as the value of the business increased.

 

Of course, if the employee bought stock themselves, they became owners, too, and partners with the other capitalists. But no matter how much stock they owned, as employees their job required them to report to the owners on how well they had done. - (p.131, The Snowball)

 

本日感想:Be the owner, or be the labor.

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It’s emotional, it’s personal, and it sucks. I’m not one to get depressed, but I would be lying if I told you that I haven’t been depressed about having to do these layoffs. While emotion is great when you’re in the heat of competition, it really doesn’t help that much when you’re doing strategy work. As such, you need to get the members of your management team to agree that you’re going to pursue your very difficult job with as little emotion as possible. If it helps, pretend you’re an outside consultant and you’ve been given the task to “save the company” with these cuts–because that’s not far off from the truth.

In other words, try and detach yourself from the emotion of the situation so you can make the right decisions. You’re going to have to tap into that emotional stuff later anyway–conserve it during your analysis and strategy. (source)

 

把”layoffs”替換成「砍掉手中虧損的投資部位」似乎也是相當合適。想像自己就是自己顧來的個人顧問,用第三人稱觀點來分析目前面對的問題,以及下一步該怎麼做。不帶有任何情感。

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小時候老師指派作文題目「我的收藏」,一定會有那種專寫蒐集郵票、蒐集銅板的同學。等長大一點,發現身邊的男同學開始收藏漫畫、模型 球卡,女同學開始收藏明星照片、專輯、各種顏色的文具…

 

再長大一點,拜網路發達所賜,更發現什麼東西都有人收藏,而我從今年10開始,也培養了一種新的收藏雅致,這個東西沒有實體,但攤開鑑賞時又蘊含了無數人的喜怒哀樂,有人因它而飛黃騰達,也有人因它而傾家蕩產。它是眾人血汗努力的結晶,它反應了貪婪與不理性的人性,它像一顆水晶球,預言了你我未來數個月將生活在好日子還是苦日子裡。它是集全球眾人之力所完成的偉大抽象畫,它就是:

 

2008/9/30

20080929

2008/9/31

20080930

2008/10/120081001

2008/10/2

20081002

2008/10/3 20081003

2008/10/620081006

2008/10/720081007

2008/10/8 20081008

2008/10/920081009

2008/10/1020081010

2008/10/1320081013

2008/10/1420081014

2008/10/1520081015

2008/10/1620081016 2008/10/1720081017

2008/10/2020081020

2008/10/21 20081021

2008/10/2220081022

2008/10/23 20081023

2008/10/2420081024

2008/10/27 20081027

2008/10/28 20081028

2008/10/29 20081029

2008/10/30 20081030

2008/10/31

20081031

 

以上是2008歷史股災的開始,9/29這天,道瓊指數跌了777點,史上最高紀錄(但百分比不是最高),也是從這天開始,我決定要來為歷史盡一點心力。經濟學和投資學課本的作者,歡迎直接引用!

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I often ask myself questions to keep things clear in my mind. One good one to ask yourself is “What am I pretending not to see?” That can bring blind spots to the surface quickly. (source)

 

Interesting to see Mr. Trump talked about “pretending-not-to-see” today. I wonder worldwide real estate investors like him are doing such an exercise, or not. Better to face the realities.

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The Final paragraph resonate with my thoughts: (source)

 

There are those who say you can’t cut spending and raise taxes in a recession - that doing that will lead to a depression like we had in the 1930s. I don’t think so. I think the global economy is in an expansionary period driven by expanding wealth in the developing world and the power of technology to drive commerce and communication. And our problem is we are stuck in the last century, fighting the last war when it’s long over. We need to get our house in order, play in this global economy with a stable and sustainable business model. And we don’t have that now. And we must get it in place soon.

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今晚歐股美股持續大跌,再來分享一段科斯托蘭尼說過的話,為各位辛苦的上班族兼投資人打打氣:

在資本主義中沒有無風險的獲利,若不是有一些冒險家拿自己的錢做賭注,讓想像力自由延伸,就不會有蒸汽機的發明和今日的汽車或電腦,也不會有美國的摩天大樓,埃及的蘇伊士運河或其他的世界奇觀。世界就是一項探險(venture),或者用現代話來說,是一項風險事業(venture business)。

Source - 證券心理學, 科斯托蘭尼

 

與其成天破口大罵華爾街的金融機構,不如換個角度想想,若不是這些金童(現在應該是擦鞋童)的投機(投資),也就不會有資金在世界各地川流不息。你我身邊,處處蜷伏著空有點子,缺乏資金,卻一心想實踐夢想的發明家、創業家;也處處藏匿著既貪婪又執著的銀行家、投機者。當雙方碰了頭,發明家、創業家將新產品推廣給大眾,銀行家、投機者從新產品中大把獲利,世界就在不知不覺中進步了,你我的生活品質,就在不知不覺中提昇了。

 

還不錯吧!不要對你過去一兩年來在市場中所下的風險決策感到遺憾,它們雖然造成你短期的損失,卻也造就了長期對人類有益的行為模式。別想太多,看前面,看遠一點,繼續冒險!

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這是我第二次把安德烈.科斯托蘭尼的遺作「一個投機者的告白」從頭到尾仔細看過一次。我認為要論定一個人是否為「大師」,或論定大師是否真在投資(或投機)市場成為「贏家」,不到此人的晚年之前,怎麼說都是不準的。而科斯托蘭尼就是符合這樣的標準。

 

以下節錄他在本書最後,為讀者留下的十律與時十戒:

 

不把我早在多年前就列出來的十律和十戒告訴大家,我是不會和讀者告別的。大家在進場和出場,會決定繼續留在證券市場前,如果能遵守這些原則,必定可以省下己馬克的學費。

 

十律

一、有主見,三思後再決定:是否應該買進,如果是,在哪裡,什麼行業,哪個國家?

二、要有足夠的資金,以免遭受壓力。

三、要有耐心,因為任何事情都不可預期,發展方向都和大家想像的不同。

四、如果相信自己的判斷,就必須堅定不移。

五、要靈活,並時刻考慮到想法中可能有錯誤。

六、如果看到出現新的局面,應該賣出。

七、不時查看購買的股票清單,並檢視現在還可以買進哪些股票。

八、只有看到遠大的發展前景時,才可買進。

九、考慮所有風險,甚至是最不可能出現的風險,也就是說,要時刻想到有意想不到的因素。

十、即使自己是對的,也要保持謙虛。

 

十戒

一、不要跟著建議跑,不要想能聽到秘密訊息。

二、不要相信賣主知道他們為什麼要賣,或買主知道自己為什麼要買,也就是說,不要相信他們比自己知道的多。

三、不要想把賠掉的再賺回來。

四、不要考慮過去的指數。

五、不要躺在有價證券上睡大覺,不要因期望遠達到更佳的指數,而忘掉它們,也就是說,不要不做決定。

六、不要不斷觀察變化細微的指數,不要對任何風吹草動作出反應。

七、不要在剛剛賺錢或賠錢時作最後的結論。

八、不要只想獲利就賣掉股票。

九、不要在情緒上受政治好惡的影響。

十、獲利時,不要過份自負。

source: 安德烈.科斯托蘭尼, 一個投機者的告白

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許多分析家和經紀人在分析有價證券時,將之區分為投機型和保守型,我認為這種區分過於膚淺,甚至是錯誤的。重點不在大家投資股票的品質,而是投資的數量,如果一位大資本家用少量的錢,購買一種相對沒有把握的科技股,那不算是投機,而是計算過風險的保守投資。但如果是一個小人物用超過自己資產的金額,也就是透過融資購買「最安全」的表準股,才是非常危險的投機。大家必須時刻牢記,投機型和保守型的區別,只是比例上的問題

 

source:科斯托蘭尼, 一個投機者的告白

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  4. 本日佳句 - 證券心理學

我為證券市場列了一個獨一無二的數學公式:2*2 = 5 -1 (二乘以二等於五減一)。我用這個公式表示,最終發生的事情都會應驗。二乘以二等於四,是最後結果,不過我們不是直接得到這個結果,而是繞了一圈。

 

這條公式剛好將藝術與科學分開,因為科學工作不可能用這樣的公式計算,二乘以二必須直接等於四。如果一名工程師造一座橋,從數學角度來看,他的計畫必須準確無誤。如果照二乘以二等於五減去一這個公式造橋,還沒等到得出四這個結果,橋就已經在五的時候倒塌了。如果投資者沒有耐心堅持到「減去」一的應驗,也會提前崩潰。因此他的邏輯雖然最終保持正確,卻已無法從中獲利。

 

Source: 安德烈.科斯托蘭尼, 一個投機者的告白

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  2. 本日佳句 - 科斯托蘭尼的十律與十戒
  3. 本日佳句 - 一個投機者的告白
  4. 本日佳句 - 證券心理學