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前微軟 VP Dick Brass 投了一篇專欄到 NY Times,強調微軟不夠創新,而且根源是 internal competition。先不論這個原因,至少我覺得 internal competition 是每間成熟的大公司都會有的問題。倒是被 Dick Brass 點名「不創新」的例子: music, e-books, phone, online, search, tablet, clear type font, etc.,喚起了我心中醞釀已久的想法,而這想法,在微軟阿宅的噗中出現:

 

大家覺得 IBM、Oracle 創新嗎?不少人心目中對「創新」的認知,侷限在消費性電子科技領域、或是外觀、互動方式等「看得到、摸得到」的介面創新;但在企業 IT 領域,還是有很多創新,是一般大眾沒興趣,或是不瞭解的 (所以記者也不愛寫)。久而久之,一些大公司就給人 LKK 的觀感了…

 

微軟並非不創新,只是它正在 enterprise software 和 consumer application 的路上迂迴前進。而合作夥伴生態、過去歷史包袱,以及投資人的壓力 (請準時交出短期成績單),讓它的推進路線,更偏向 enterprise 一點。

 

enterprise software 這條路,本來就難走,寫熱門報導給大眾看的記者與部落客不懂此領域;懂此領域的記者縱使寫出精闢好文,刊載其報導的媒體又只有少數圈內人關心。微軟沒錯、Dick Brass 沒錯 、記者沒錯、媒體沒錯、一般大眾沒錯,錯的只是我們對微軟不正確的期望,以及人類容易受到膚淺事物刺激的天性。(可能要問問腦科學先生,人類大腦理解創新的部位,和狗狗大腦理解骨頭好吃的部位,是不是在同一個位置。)

 

說得含蓄點,就是大眾只對「貼近自己」、「容易理解」的創新有感覺,有反應,有記憶。至於讓 fortune 500 企業 LOB 效率增加 75% 的創新?讓 fortune 500 企業 IT 總支出減少 75% 的創新?省省吧,大眾沒興趣,別期望這些創新會有 pop momentum。

 

你不會因為 Apple 遲遲無法開發出適合企業使用的 mail server 就罵它不創新,不會因為 Google 遲遲尚未進軍 ERP 市場就罵它不創新。所以拿 lack of consumer technology innovation 來 challenge 當前將經營重心放在 enterprise technology innovation 的公司,有失公允。如果你是見識的菁英,如果你是有見識的記者,你會如何看待?

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上週五 MSFT 2Q FY10 (2009 年第 4 季) 財報出爐,拜遞延認列 Windows 7 收益之賜,總營收成長 14% yoy,營利成長 43% yoy,淨利成長 60% yoy。扣掉 Win 7 營收遞延認列的部份,則營收成長縮減為 4% yoy。

 

只和去年比較有失準頭,因此我也把過去 5 年 2Q 的營運成績翻出來瞧瞧:

 

Microsoft

Revenue (in millions)

2Q FY10 2Q FY09 2Q FY08 2Q FY07 2Q FY06 2Q FY05
19,022 16,629 16,367 12,542 11,837 10,818

 

Operating Income (in millions)

2Q FY10 2Q FY09 2Q FY08 2Q FY07 2Q FY06 2Q FY05
8,513 5,939 6,481 3,472 4,657 4,749

 

Net Income (in millions)

2Q FY10 2Q FY09 2Q FY08 2Q FY07 2Q FY06 2Q FY05
6,662 4,174 4,707 2,626 3,653 3,463

 

若和 2Q FY05 比較,2Q FY10 的營收、營利、淨利分別成長了 75.8%、79.2%、92.3%。5 年來的年復合成長率分別為 12.0%、12.4%、14.0% 。以一間成立 35 年,市值超過 200 ~ 250 bn 的企業來說,算是相當好的表現。但和 enterprise software 領域的競爭對手比一比,這張成績單,只能算是伯仲之間。請看 IBM 過去 5 年的表現:

 

IBM

Revenue (in billions)

4Q 2009 4Q 2008 4Q 2007 4Q 2006 4Q 2005 4Q 2004
27.2 27.0 28.9 26.3 24.4 27.7

 

Net Income From Continuing Operations (in billions)

4Q 2009 4Q 2008 4Q 2007 4Q 2006 4Q 2005 4Q 2004
4.8 4.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.1

 

IBM 2009 年第 4 季營收比 2004 年第 4 季減少 0.2%。但 2009 年第 4 季營利則比 2004 年第 4 季增加 54.8%,年復合成長率 9.1%。雖然營收沒有增加太多,但 5 年內營業利益率大幅上升,經營團隊的策略布局和內部管控能力相當令人驚艷。再來看看 Oracle

 

Oracle

Revenue (in billions)

2Q FY10 2Q FY09 2Q FY08 2Q FY07 2Q FY06 2Q FY05
5.9 5.6 5.3 4.1 3.3 2.8

 

Operating Income (in billions)

2Q FY10 2Q FY09 2Q FY08 2Q FY07 2Q FY06 2Q FY05
2.2 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.1

 

Net Income (in billions)

2Q FY10 2Q FY09 2Q FY08 2Q FY07 2Q FY06 2Q FY05
1.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.8

 

Oracle 2009 年第 4 季營收比 5 年前增加 111%、營利增加 100%、淨利增加 88%。年復合成長率分別為 16.1%、14.9%、13.4%。雖然營利率不像 IBM 那樣大幅爬升,但獲利成長曲線平滑,不失為一個穩健企業的範例。

 

最後,以 2009 年第 4 季來看,MSFT、IBM、ORCL 的營利率分別為 44.6%、 17.6%、37.3%。論商業模式「精明」的程度,MSFT 還是略勝一籌。精明的投資人,當然要支持精明的公司啊,哈哈。

 

image

 

理論上,股價反應未來,不是過去,但這張 5 年期走勢圖可真是道盡 MSFT 的委屈啊!

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記得去年回顧 AllTHingsD Bill Gates 和 Steve Jobs 同台對談,Gates 提到消費性電子產品會從 dedicated purposed 匯聚成 general purposed;我心得則是,消費性電產品會在 general & dedicated purpose 之間來回循環演化,像鐘擺一樣,兩極都有個磁場,把創新的趨勢吸引過去,這個磁場,我們叫它市場力量。不過最早發表這個看法的,是我們的老祖宗,陳壽,他在三國誌就預見:天下大勢,合久必分,分久必合。

 

Apple 從 dedicated purpose 產品東山再起 (a.k.a. iPod),到現在 iPad 搶盡媒體風采,Jobs Co.想往 general purpose device 發展的痕跡越來越明顯,iPad 也顯然被賦予了 multiple function 的期望。那麼,我們有沒有想過一個問題:比 iPad 大台的,叫做筆電或桌機,被拿來當 general purpose device 使用;比 iPad 小台的,叫做 smartphone,也逐漸被拿來當 general purpose device 使用。那 iPad 到底要如何在夾縫中生存呢?

 

iPad 如果把 OS X 裝進去,會咬到 Mac 的市場;做陽春一點兒,會咬到 iPhone / iPod Touch / iPod 市場。只做 e-reader,只做 gaming device,或只做 web browsing device,又不符合 Apple 的 content platform (paid + ads) + apps ecosystem 策略。做廣還是做深?這間公司到底如何定位自己呢?

 

“We offer people the best way to be entertained?”

 

無法回答的問題,就統統把它歸類到 “lifestyle” 吧!

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請繼續餵食

難得看到一篇批判 Google / Nexus One 的文章。十五年來,雖然資訊載體的形式一直推陳出新,但人受到媒體的影響程度 (或控制程度) 也同步加深。除了少數菁英,一般人不願或不配或無法成為能「獨立思考的考動物」。媒體 (as a whole) 會繼續扮演老大哥的角色,只是老大哥會逐漸把權利下放給你我身邊的堂主。

 

所以,有沒有想過,the power of media v.s. the superior product portfolio,你心目中的企業品牌,有多少成份是靠前者建立起來的,有多少是靠後者?

 

如果從今天開始,全世界的記者都被下蠱,全部只寫 Microsoft 好話,猜會怎麼樣?

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Microsoft in 1995

原本要查 1995/12/7 MSFT 召開分析師大會,宣佈新 IE 策略的相關資訊。結果沒找到相關會議記錄,倒是找到了 Channel 9 早些時候製作的 Microsoft History 系列影片。

 

1995 - 1996 年的微軟,如日中天。

 

1. Windows 95 released

2. Bill Gates published The Road Ahead

3. MSNBC joint venture formed (1996)

 

 

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More MBAs at Microsoft

MIT Sloan 學院的學生前幾天揪團到 Seattle 和 Silicon Valley 的知名科技公司參訪,也為之後的 summer intern 做準備。有些公司熱情款待這些同學,有些則是撳撳蔡蔡。Microsoft 看來是有用心在款待這些 MBAs:

 

… it sounds like the Redmond company has MBA internship slots open in product planning and product management, in its Server and Tools division, and others. And it certainly knew how to put on a show for the visiting students. “Microsoft was super interesting,” Wepfer says. “They took us through their ‘home of the future.’” (One other perk: Bill Gates used to have a gathering at his house for all the summer interns; now Steve Ballmer does it.)

 

On the plus side, several students singled out Microsoft, saying it “works really hard” to sponsor international students [Visas]. (source)

 

只希望巨龍巨龍你擦亮眼,這年頭不會/不肯做事的 MBA 不少。小心僱來變成 liability。

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不管路人怎麼解讀,我還是相當喜歡這句: 

“We don’t do things that where we don’t aim to be the No.1.”

– Steve Ballmer

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2009 年 11 月 12 日,巴菲特與蓋茲二度同台演講,地點在哥倫比亞大學,整場直接與 Wharton 的學生進行 Q&A 。若這場演講開放全球售票,我那時一定是在台下…

 


(開場的 standing ovation 熱血度百分之百!)

 

好在這個世界上有 broadband Inetnet + video streaming technology。當然,對我來說,沒有佳句摘要,就不算是吸收了一場完整的演講:

 

Announcer: …wealth is not about the money you amass, but the number of lives you enrich.

Gates: I was a huge beneficiary of this country’s unique willingness to take risk on a young person.  And, you know, I got to hire people who were older.  I got to sell to people who were older.  And it was kind of a dream come true. 

Buffett: Last September, only the government could have saved things.  The whole world wanted to deleverage.  And they were deleveraging under conditions of extreme haste and with guns to their head in some cases.  And the only entity that could possibly leverage up at the same time that everybody else wanted to deleverage was the Federal government. 

Gates: And business schools play a role in training people to think about value, leadership.  There’s wonderful skills that are taught at great schools like this.  And so the fact that, yes, we have had a crisis and we have dropped back, maybe we wasted two or three years net because of the things that were done wrong, that doesn’t say that business schools aren’t performing a great service, you know.  The case studies of this crisis will be taught here for decades to come. 

Buffett: The wonderful thing about it is in this country, is you can succeed magnificently with ethics.  It’s not a hindrance.  It’s a help sometimes.  It’s a neutral sometimes.  But it’s not a hindrance at all.  And to cut corners, you know, everybody here has a wonderful future.  I mean, this is an economy you’re going into that is so much — [APPLAUSE]  If you look back on the 19th Century, we had seven great bank panics.  If you look back at the 20th Century, we had the Great Depression and world wars and flu epidemics.  This country doesn’t avoid problems.  It just solves them.  And in the next 100 years, our machine will sputter again, you know.  Maybe 15 years will be so-so years, but there will be 85 great years.  And during the 20th Century the Dow went from 66 to 11,400, so this is fertile soil that you’re working in and there’s no reasons to cut corners.

Buffett: I had a professor, Ben Graham, I offered to go to work for him for nothing.  He said, "You’re overpriced."  Nonetheless, I went into the business. [APPLAUSE]  I will guarantee, you will do well at whatever turns you on. 

Buffett: I don’t like to sound, you know, like a mortician during an epidemic or anything, but last fall was really quite exciting for me.  [LAUGHTER] I don’t wish it on anybody, but there were things being offered.  There are opportunities for us to do things that didn’t exist a year or two earlier. So I really don’t — I don’t want to be in a position where I am leveraged or something of the sort that does keep me up at night. I did not worry about the ultimate survival of our economic system.  We were messed up.  Wasn’t any question about that.  But the plants haven’t gone away.  The cornfields haven’t gone away.  The talent of the American people hasn’t gone away.  The innovativeness of the next Bill Gates hasn’t gone away.  This country was going to do fine.  I knew that.  We just had to get things straightened out.  And we’re well on the way to having that happen.

Buffett: …if you had a wonderful farm and you knew the next 50 years there would be five droughts but there would be 45 good years, I mean, you would not become paralyzed thinking about the five drought years.  You would recognize that you’ve got a system that works very well over time, and that’s our American economic system.

Buffett: Let me give you an illustration.  I bought my first stock in 1942.  I was 11.  I had been dillydallying up until then.  I got serious.  [LAUGHTER]  What do you think the best year for the market has been since 1942?  Best calendar year from 1942 to the present time.  Well, there’s no reason for you to know the answer.  The answer is 1954.  In 1954, the Dow … dividends was up 50%.  Now if you look at 1954, we were in a recession a good bit of that time.  The recession started in July of ‘53.  Unemployment peaked in September of ‘54.  So until November of ‘54 you hadn’t seen an uptick in the employment figure.  And the unemployment figure more than doubled during that period.  It was the best year there was for the market.  So it’s a terrible mistake to look at what’s going on in the economy today and then decide whether to buy or sell stocks based on it.  You should decide whether to buy or sell stocks based on how much you’re getting for your money, long-term value you’re getting for your money at any given time.  And next week doesn’t make any difference because next week, next week is going to be a week further away.  And the important thing is to have the right long-term outlook, evaluate the businesses you are buying.  And then a terrible market or a terrible economy is your friend.  I don’t care, in making a purchase of the Burlington Northern, I don’t care whether next week, or next month or even next year there is a big revival in car loadings or any of that sort of thing.  A period like this gives me a chance to do things.  It’s silly to wait.  I wrote an article.  If you wait until you see the robin, spring will be over.

Buffett: [APPLAUSE]  But let me add one point because — to the MBA situation.  Right now, I would pay $100,000 for 10% of the future earnings of any of you.  So anybody that wants to see me after this is over — [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE]  If that’s true, you are a million-dollar asset right now, right, if 10% of you is worth 100,000?  You could improve — many of you, and I certainly could have when I got out, just in terms of learning communication skills.  You know, it’s not something that is taught.  I actually went to a Dale Carnegie course later on in terms of public speaking.  But if you improve your value 50% by having better communication skills, that’s another $500,000 in terms of capital value.  See me after the class and I’ll pay you 150-thousand.  [APPLAUSE]

Gates: But I think I’d pick his desire to teach, his desire to teach things that are complex and put them in a simple form so that people can understand and get the benefit of all his experience, all his models of how the world works.  He loves to teach.  And he does it meeting with students.  He does it in his annual newsletter.  He does it when he’s talking to me on the phone.  It’s a real gift that I admire incredibly.

Buffett: First of all, I’d say marry the right person. [LAUGHTER]  And I’m serious about that.  [APPLAUSE] It will make more difference in your life.  It will change your aspiration, all kind of things.  It’s enormously important who you marry.  And then also go to work, if possible, for an organization or an individual that you admire.  I mean I offered to go to work for Ben Graham because there was nobody I admired more in the business than him.  I didn’t care what he paid me.  When he finally did hire me in 1954, I moved from Omaha to New York and I didn’t know what I was getting paid until I got my first paycheck.  But I knew I wanted to work for Ben Graham.  And I knew I would jump out of bed every morning and be excited about what I would do and I would go home at night smarter than I was in the morning.  Go to work at a job that turns you on and a person that turns you on and institution.  [APPLAUSE]

Buffett: The one thing I will tell you is the worst investment you can have is cash.  Everybody is talking about cash being king and all that sort of thing.  Most of you don’t look like you are overburdened with cash anyway.  [LAUGHTER] Cash is going to become worth less over time.  But good businesses are going to become worth more over time.  And you don’t want to pay too much for them so you have to have some discipline about what you pay.  But the thing to do is find a good business and stick with it.

Buffett: Don’t pass up something that’s attractive today because you think you will find something way more attractive tomorrow.

Buffett: But every year don’t measure it by the earnings in the quarter that year. Measure it by whether the moat around that business, what gives it competitive advantage over time has widened or narrowed.  If you keep doing that for 100 years, it’s going to work out very well.  Then I tell them basically if the reason for doing something is everybody else is doing it, it’s not good enough.  If you have to use that as a reason, forget it.  You don’t have a good reason for doing something.  Never use that.

Buffett: It’s always interesting when Bill and I appear together, they don’t figure they can do what Bill does, but they know they can do what I do.  [LAUGHTER]  [APPLAUSE]

 

Buffett: And then basically I didn’t listen to anybody else.  I just look in the mirror every morning and the mirror always agrees with me.  And I go out and do what I believe I should be doing.  And I’m not influenced by what other people think.

Gates: Well, we talked about some of the basics, having great people around you, reading a lot, thinking long-term.  I also think, though, there become a few magic moments where you have to have confidence in yourself. You know, Warren when he set off on his own, he could have gone and taken a job as an analyst somewhere.  But he knew that he had the skill, that he was going to raise money and have his own partnership.  When I dropped out of Harvard and said to my friends, ‘Come work for me,’ there was a certain kind of brass self-confidence in that.  You have a few moments like that where trusting yourself and saying yes, this can come together — you have to seize on those because not many come along.

Gates: Well, they [Google] have some of the same problems we had.  [LAUGHTER]  [APPLAUSE]  It’s another fine competitor.  They are hiring a lot of smart people.  They have gotten into the lead position in search, which is incredibly profitable to be number one in that.  They may get a little competition as time goes forward.  But they are a great example of what can happen, you know, two young guys who got together, pursued an idea and created a success that’s absolutely gigantic.  And we all, you know, hopefully use search engines, maybe a variety.  [LAUGHTER]  And we benefit from that.

Buffett: … Well, that’s 50 years of preparation and five (minutes) of decision making.   [APPLAUSE]

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2010 年第一篇,來展望手機上網未來五年趨勢。

 

Morgan Stanley 在年終 publish 了 3 份 Mobile Internet 研究報告,一份厚達 424 頁,另一份厚達 659 頁,另外還有一份 104 頁的摘要。當看到這類型研究報告釋出時,要先戴上「本夢比」的 3D 眼鏡,才能通過「景深」,看出分析師喊多喊過頭的 bias。然而起初閱讀摘要前 1/3,發現只是拿既成事實來說嘴,有些失望,原本這篇 title 還是「令人失望的 Morgan Stanley Mobile Internet Report」。後來倒吃甘蔗,後半部圖表頗有代表性,也為我前陣子長線看好台灣電信三雄的推論背書。(電信三雄符合集中投資寡佔避險理論。)

 

大約是在 2009 年下班年,發現捷運上有越來越多人利用通勤時間把玩智慧型手機,有玩遊戲的、有看影片的、有看文件的、也有少部份人連上 FB 消磨時間。相信這會是個先行指標。未來電信業者有機會在暴漲的 3G data consumption 中海撈一筆。我唯一擔心的是為了應付頻寬需求,無可避免的硬體擴建資本支出,會沖淡營收效益。而這份報告也正巧提供 2G、3G、LTE 三個轉換過渡期的成本資出模型,可拿來與台灣電信三雄的支出情況交互檢驗。

 

以下是我認為具參考價值的幾張投影片。看得出來分析師偏好 APPL 和 GOOG。不過“iTouch” 這個字眼一直重複出現,著實讓我的心糾了幾下,開始擔心分析師到底是不是真的有在玩… (希望這只是省版面的縮寫)

 

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(鴻海被分析師加入了我的最愛)

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(宏達電和連發科則是被加入了分喜師有點愛,又不會太愛的最愛)

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( MSN.com 的狀況也太慘了吧 )

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(Microsoft 到底是抬轎的還是搭轎的?)

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GOOG 日前對全體員工發了一封信,標題是 ”Meaning of Open”,接著也把整篇文章發表在官方部落格公開分享。(這是我覺得新聞稿和部落格 mix 的好處之一。) 另外同事也拿出 Eric Schonfeld 2007 年底曾寫過的一篇“Who is the Openest of Them all”,作為不同立場的辯論。以下各節錄一段:

 

. . . open systems win. This is counter-intuitive to the traditionally trained MBA who is taught to generate a sustainable competitive advantage by creating a closed system, making it popular, then milking it through the product life cycle. The conventional wisdom goes that companies should lock in customers to lock out competitors. . . . a well-managed closed system can deliver plenty of profits. They can also deliver well-designed products in the short run — the iPod and iPhone being the obvious examples — but eventually innovation in a closed system tends towards being incremental at best (is a four blade razor really that much better than a three blade one?) because the whole point is to preserve the status quo. Complacency is the hallmark of any closed system. If you don’t have to work that hard to keep your customers, you won’t. (source: Meaning of Open)

 

But don’t be fooled. Companies are very selective about the areas where they choose to be open, and they very rarely open up their core source of profits voluntarily. . . . So the next time a company touts how open it is, ask yourself how that will help it make more money. Don’t confuse openness with altruism. (source: Who is the Openest of Them all)

Just because industry pressures and increased interconnectedness are forcing companies to embrace open technologies, don’t confuse openness with profitability. Open standards tend to be good for spurring the adoption of new technologies, but not so good for generating profits directly. That is why companies choose to be open along axes where they don’t compete. Google, for instance, is a big proponent of open standards in social networking, mobile networks, Web applications, and practically everywhere —except the one place it makes money. Its advertising system is a black box. You also never hear any talk coming out of Google about opening up the search algorithms that drive all of those advertising revenues. In contrast, Google has no problem championing open standards in industries that it is hoping to disrupt (by commoditizing existing business models with open standards, and making money with advertising instead).  (source: Who is the Openest of Them all)

 

嗯,我重複唸了三次 “by commoditizing [competitors’] existing business models with open standards”。這真的挺嚇人的。如果你能穿著免費黑披風,拿著免費鐮刀,讓路過的花花草草都枯萎,然後再從這些殘骸中獲利。這已經不是王道了,這是天喻。

 

簡單來說,這年頭要談「開放」:

 

1. 非核心競爭力的產品統統提倡 Openness

2. 輸掉了也沒關係的市場統統提倡 Openness

3. 消費者比較能接觸到的表層統統提倡 Openness

 

然後是賺錢的嘴臉,要間接一點,才不會被人嫌。GOOG 值得長抱。

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comScore 12 月釋出的報告,其中一項調查,問打算在未來三個月內購買智慧型手機的受訪者,最想要買那一款?結果如下:

 

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想買 iPhone 的佔了 20%,想買 Android 的佔了 17%,想買 BlackBerry 的,自己加吧。至於 Windows Mobile 呢…?

 

comScore Bonus chart: 這回有 WM 了,但 APPL 也趕上了。

 

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AdMob 也放出了一份 iPhone / iPod Touch 全球市場市佔分佈報告,以及各市場市占率的成長幅度比較。

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看了一下 AdMob 分析報告的首頁,彷彿有種 WM doesn’t matter 的感覺…

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搶人風險

之前 miss 掉一則人事新聞的 follow-up。日前網路上有不少聲量,責難 MSFT 資遣了BizSpark 的負責人 Don Dodge;此人在美國 (矽谷) 也算是想叮噹的人物 — 至少 Start-up 圈都還滿喜歡他的。TC 的 Michael Arrington 更是直接發文點出 MSFT 做了一個愚蠢的決定。而難能可貴的是,Don 在自己的 Blog 還是懷著感恩的心支持前公司做的決定。

 

接著,故事有了意想不到的發展。11 天之後,Google 向 Don 招手,他成了 Google 的員工。而 MSFT 也釋出了和 Don 的 JD 相當雷同的職缺。所以原先砍掉 Don,到底是策略改變,工作內容不再被需要呢?還是純粹為了省錢?總之就成了羅生門。

 

不過回歸到我的集中投資寡佔避險理論 — 同時持有 MSFT 和 GOOG 的股票,這時候效果就出來了。不論是那一方損失,不論人才最後往哪裡流,最後人才還是握在你手裡。potential earning power 還是留在系統中,沒有蒸發。

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剛剛又看了一篇分析報告。這兩天傳出 News Corp. 正在和 GOOG 協商三年前談定的 My Space 廣告合約續約問題。三年前的合約內容是,只要 MySpace 旗下的資產為 GOOG 帶來某個數字以上的流量,GOOG 就保證每年支付 300m 給 News Corp.。然而大家也看到恰好就是這兩年來,MySpace 被 Facebook 搶走了不少流量,外加後來 GOOG 內部評估後,發現 300m/y 的價位實在是過於高估,因此今年強勢表示要降價,不然就不續約了。(分析師認為,300m/y 讓 GOOG 的營利率減少了 100 bps。)

 

因此最近 News Corp. 吵著要全面禁止 GOOG access 到包含 MySpace 在內的旗下資產,就可能只是個恐嚇動作,為的是保住合約。實際情況不可能發生。另外謠傳的全美出版業聯合抵制 GOOG 則更不可能,因此這樣就讓國外的出版業競爭者有機可乘。畢竟消費者只希望能輕鬆搜尋到想看的新聞。

 

這時很有趣的事情發生了,市場開始揣測 MSFT 會不會趁勢介入,把這個 deal 吃下來,藉此來幫 Bing 和廣告事業搶市占率。但分析師認為可能性也不高,因為股東會反彈 xD。

 

我是支持啦,因為 MSFT 擁有 GOOG 尚未投入的娛樂市場,有 Xbox,有 Zune、Zune Marketplace;花 300m 買張入場券,讓這些資產和 MySpace (e.g. music streaming services) 多點緊密合作,其綜效是可以高過 GOOG 的。

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營收、營利、淨利、 EPS 分別衰退 14%、25%、18%、17% YoY,但把遞延認列的 Windows 7 營收加回去,則營收衰退縮小至 4%,EPS 甚至變成成長 8% YoY。有趣的是,市場反應和 Q1 2009 營收公佈時一樣,財報有些悲情,但股價卻是以大漲反應,看來以後投資學教科書要介紹「利空出盡」的概念時,一定要記得拿 MSFT 當範本。

 

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另外從 cash flow statement 也看到一個有趣的小地方:過去三個月,MSFT 悄悄地在證券市場作多 。我個人推測 2010 上半年應該就能慢慢採收夏天種下的果實了。

 

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距離 Yahoo! 和 Microsoft 合作案宣布至今也一個月有了,投資人似乎還是不太賞臉。YAHOO 股價一個月來下跌約 15%。但女強人 Carol Bartz 當然不會就此示弱:

Bartz is angry and unapologetic. "People were hoping to make quick bucks," she says with contempt, brandishing charts that appear to show how much her deal can earn over the long term. "I’m betting the economy will come back. I know it will. I’m betting online ads will get bigger market share. I’m betting Microsoft will be maniacal about search, and we’ll get a big share of that. I’m betting on getting my margins up. For the background to all of it, I’m betting on getting the audience for Yahoo up." (source)

不知道記者文字修飾佔了多少,但我喜歡她的說話方式。聽說她的辦公室放了一塊石頭,上頭刻著 “Believe”。

ps. 沒注意到她 61 歲

some facts:

Yahoo Mail has 98 million users in the U.S. alone, almost three times as much as Microsoft’s Windows Live e-mail and four times as much as Gmail from Google. Yahoo News claims six times as many readers as the four highest-circulation dailies combined. Three million photos a day go onto its Flickr photo service. Two hundred and sixty million ads a month are submitted to Yahoo, and 20 million are manually reviewed for content. Six million are rejected for inappropriate content.

 

still some facts:

 

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Open Source

Open Source community 有一百個反對微軟的理由。微軟也有九十九個理由可以回應為什麼我們要 (或不要) 如此如此做。然而剩下的那一個反對理由,總讓微軟的前九十九個回應顯得渺小:

 

這第一百反,反的是體制 a.k.a. Anti-establishment

 

體制化是走進主流 (多數那一方) 所要付出的代價。等哪一天 open culture 也成為主流,就勢必會失去獨立價值觀 (我和你不一樣)、改革價值觀 (我代表改變)、和進步價值觀 (我代表更美好的未來) 的魅力;勢必會失去原先的信徒,勢必會喚起另一股反對勢力。

 

有沒有可能 20 年後,當人人覺得【啥都 open】是理所當然時,在世界的某角落,受到壓抑的菁英文化將再次代表革命的一方挑戰主流?反開放、反草根、反平等、反協作?我也不知道…

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媒體界就愛打落水狗。微軟上一季財報不如預期,記者專家們紛紛拿微軟的過去種種作為鞭打。隸屬於華爾街日報數位頻道 – Market Watch,最近就有出現了一篇酸文

 

Let me restate it. Microsoft is a software company. It has been distracted too easily by the success of others in essentially unrelated fields. Here are but a few examples (and there are dozens more):

讓我在次強調,無論如何,微軟骨子裡還是一間軟體公司。然而,一直以來,微軟似乎患了注意力發散症,一見到其他公司在某領域獲得成功,就情不自禁跳入此領域拋頭顱灑熱血。歷史會說話,讓我們來看看過去的例子:

 

  • Years ago in the pre-Internet era, AOL was the talk of the town, so Microsoft had to copy it with MSN. No money was made; no strategic advantage was gained.
  • 在網路剛起飛的年代,人人都談 AOL,因此微軟也學著推出了一個叫做 MSN 的入口網站。當時沒有獲利,也看不出特別的策略優勢。

 

  • Netscape was the rage for a while, so Microsoft threw together a browser and got in that business. The browser was given away for free. No money was made; the strategy got the company in trouble with government trustbusters.
  • Netscape 瀏覽器如日中天的年代,微軟也順勢推出免費 IE,沒有賺到錢,捆綁策略也招來政府干涉。

 

  • During the early days of the Internet, new online publications appeared. Microsoft decided to become a publisher too, rolling out a slew of online properties including a computer magazine and a women’s magazine. They were all folded.
  • 網際網路發展之初,線上出版業看似潛能無限,微軟也很早跟進這股潮流,決定當個出版小霸王,推出一系列線上電腦刊物,甚至是女性雜誌。這些雜誌最後都停刊收場。

 

  • Computer books became popular; Microsoft began Microsoft Press. After an early splash and success, the company soon lost interest and the division now languishes.
  • 隨著電腦叢書越來越熱門,微軟也開設了 Microsoft Press 工具書出版部門。初期的確有獲得小小的成功。然而不久後,微軟即失去興趣,任由此部門凋零。

 

  • Teddy Ruxpin became a hot toy. Microsoft rolled out a couple of robotic plush toys, including the creepy Barney the Dinosaur who sang “I love you and you love me.” The company soon lost interest and dropped the whole thing.
  • 機器熊 Teddy Ruxpin 一度掀起一陣機器人玩具熱潮,微軟搭上順風車,也推出了機器人玩具,如粉紅色恐龍 Barney the Dinosaur,還會唱:「我愛你你愛我」。之後機器人產品線無疾而終。

 

  • AOL-TV appeared, along with other device-centric TV-delivery mechanisms in the 1990s. Microsoft created a Microsoft-TV division as well as a device. It soon lost interest.
  • 1990年代,由於 AOL-TV 與其他網路電視技術的崛起,讓微軟也想分時這塊大餅,因而創立 Mircosoft-TV 部門,並同步開發相關軟硬體裝置。不久後,也對此領域失去興趣。

 

  • Adobe Photoshop became a huge success, so Microsoft hired Alvy Ray Smith to develop photo-editing software. Smith quit when the company lost interest in the idea.
  • 隨者 Adobe Photoshop 大發利市,讓微軟也招募了 Alvy Ray Smith 協同開發影像編輯軟體。最後微軟失去興趣,Smith 離職。

 

  • Yahoo and Google showed that a search engine could be a money maker, so Microsoft copied that idea; it now has Bing.
  • Yahoo 和 Google 證明了搜尋引擎也能成為一台印鈔機,因此微軟也全力仿效,現在這個搜尋引擎叫做 Bing。

 

  • Cloud applications are currently trendy, along with notions about software as a service. Microsoft decides to go into that business.
  • 「雲端計算、」「軟體即服務」堪稱近期科技界最潮的兩大議題,微軟也決定切入這塊市場。

 

  • The Apple rolled out a MP3 player, the iPod. Microsoft came up with its own MP3 player, the Zune. The company also says it wants to stream music.
  • Apple 推出了一系列叫做 iPod 的 MP3 播放器,微軟也推出一系列叫做 Zune 的 MP3 播放器。同時強調 Zune 也能即時串流音樂。

 

咳咳,以上的說法都非常具體。不過呢,在我看來,作者犯了兩個假設上的錯誤。1) 作者假設微軟不再繼續上述投資。 2) 作者假設隨市場起舞,當個後進者是錯誤的策略

 

就1) 來說,作者並非微軟內部員工,僅憑外部觀察,就斷定微軟是否持續進行某項事業體投資,並不客觀。其實  MS Press 仍在正常營運,新書仍搭配新技術陸續推出,之前還有一波每月免費送一本電子書活動。網路電視仍是 Microsoft 投資重心,只是由 90 年代的 Web TV 轉移成 IP TV。MSN 在許多國家已經開始獲利,造成整體線上事業部門虧損的其實是其他線上服務的研發投資,以及整體資料中心成本。Microsoft Slate 雜誌也在 2004 賣給華盛頓郵報集團出場。

 

就2) 來說,隨市場起舞,或遵守「跟隨者」哲學,並非完全不好。起碼對投資人來說,這是個風險相對較小的策略。當其他創新者投入高風險開拓新市場,資源豐富的大公司大可先隔山觀虎鬥,確認需求的確存在後,再進行投資。如此才能剩下正確投資行為所應承擔的 calculated risk。 如 1970年代, VisiCalc 激發出金融界大量試算表電子化的需求,Viscalc 是 spreadsheet 的創新先驅,但卻只獲得數年短暫的成功,後來更大的餅,是由「模仿者」 Lotus 1-2-3 ,以及 1-2-3 的「模仿者」 MS Excel 奪走。經由商業評估後合理的「後進者」決策,在外人看來就像是下了一個當「模仿者」的決定。事實上,情況沒有咱們素人想像中簡單呀。

 

所以說,愛之深,則之切,但打小孩時,相信許多家長都是在不理性的氣頭上。就像是不理性的微軟投資人,正在氣頭上。

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"Google and Yahoo together became the entire market…” 這是去年微軟反對 Google + Yahoo! 合作案的主要立場。當然最後美國 DoJ 也聽進去了。不過這句話道倒觸發我一個想法: 投資 G.Y.M.,也就等於投資了整塊搜尋廣告市場。話說現在夜闌人靜,剛剛突然一股熱血湧上心頭,於是就稍微花了些時間,找了佐證料:

 

1. 根據 IAB 的報告,在美國,2007 年付費搜尋廣告市場約 88 億美金,2008 年成長到 105 億美金,增幅約 20%。同時IDC也預測,整體美國線上廣告市場將從 2007 年 250 億美金的規模,一路成長到 2012 年 551 億美金的規模,年復合成長率約 17% 。輔以 IAB 2008 年統計出的資料來看,美國搜尋引擎廣告約佔全部線上廣告的 45%,而 2007 年則佔了 41%,照這樣的成長規模保守估計,到 2012 年,整體付費搜尋廣告市場起碼可以擴張到 275 億美金 (假設屆時搜尋廣告佔全部線上廣告市場的 50% )。而這僅還是美國而已。(所以..完完全全能體會為什麼 Ballmer 就算讓線上事業部狂燒錢,也要積極搶食這塊「250 億行銷預算黑洞」。)

 

2. search 所需的技術門檻相當高,競爭者幾乎無法切入。 (baidu.com? 好吧,我只能說也許是還有一大部分大陸人還沒試過更好的搜尋引擎。)

 

3. Google 在美國市占率約 65%,Bing 和 Yahoo!合作後市占率約 28%,GYM 幾乎就吃下了美國 93% 大中小型公司行銷預算的一大部分 (again, 請記得,光是美國,這塊大餅就有約 17% 的復合成長率)。

 

4. 其他國家我沒有特別研究,但確定的是 Google 在歐洲約佔了 79% 的市占率 (March 2008, ComScore),新興市場比較較弱,如亞洲的韓國、中國分別擁有國產搜尋引擎龍頭。但我覺得「精準比對廣告內容和搜尋結果」也是另一個門檻相當高的技術 (Ballmer 都說了,整合 Bing 到 Yahoo! Portal 只需要 3 到 6 個月,但整合 AdCenter 和 Panama 要 12 個月的時間),這些國產牌搜尋引擎如果無法推出比 Google、 Bing 更精準 (或至少一樣精準) 的廣告比對技術,業主最後還是會把行銷預算往 Google、Bing 塞。所以我看好 GYM 在新興市場節節壟斷的趨勢。

 

其他產業我不知道,但科技業要找到這麼棒的寡頭壟斷機會也不多了。

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我相信這次 Microsoft 和 Yahoo! 的結盟,執行面上摩擦會小很多,因為:

Bartz: A good share of the people here worked for Qi, so it’s not like they’re unknown. That actually was comforting to me, even though I’ve never met Qi. I hear nothing but good remarks about him. The other thing that’s kind of fascinating is that Joanne Bradford runs our advertising markets and she was…

Ballmer: … sales and programming for Microsoft.

Bartz: So there’s a lot of transfer of personal knowledge back and forth. While all deals are chance because somebody wants something and somebody wants something else, people have really come together in the right spirit. That doesn’t mean there won’t be issues. But Steve and I have a good relationship and we have to start with that. That will reflect down to the organization, because I don’t think either one of us will take any bulls–t from anybody. If either side starts playing (games), we just place a call to each other and the bulls—t meter comes on, right?

我也很喜歡某分析師說的這句話:

As Krans put it in a research note Tuesday: "Microsoft gets its milk without buying the cow."

 

 

Carol Bartz 針對 Yahoo! 股價跌 12% 的回應:

Bartz: I think two things happen. One is some people wanted upfront money. I wanted a high (traffic acquisition cost) rate, because I want a revenue line — in fact, what this deal has given me is virtually all my revenue, or 88 percent of the revenue, with no cost, and so I needed to be able to focus this company on other aspects of the business, and let Microsoft — who we know is maniacal about the search business, so they can take a run against Google. So I wanted to ride their coattails, so I think people forgot all of the money we were saving here and tried to focus just on an upfront payment — which to me, a billion dollars, I’ve got $4 billion, another billion after taxes and I get 50 basis points of interest, it doesn’t really help me from an operating standpoint.

The second thing is, you know, I think people just didn’t think about the timing. You know, everybody who was assuming the last few weeks that there was going to be a deal probably assumed by next quarter we’d be saving a boatload of money and the stock would go up, and they could jump in or out or whatever they wanted to do. So when we said, gee, six months of regulatory and two years after that, I think people went "Aaacck!"

火爆浪子 (?!) 和火爆娘子 (?!) 真是絕配 :D

Q: Steve, are you going to start dropping a few f-bombs just to make Carol feel more comfortable?

Bartz: No! No! OK, this is how it’s going to work.

Ballmer: Ha! Ha! Carol’s going to jump up and down!

Bartz: I’m going to jump up and down and I CAN YELL JUST AS LOUD AS STEVE!

Q: I’m sorry, Carol, what’d you say, you cut out there.

Ballmer: (laughing) You heard her.

Q: Maybe Carol, you’ll need to jump around on stage and say, "Microsoft, Microsoft, Microsoft."

Bartz: I can, I can. And I can eat funny food, too.

Ballmer: We’re both chronically on diets.

Bartz: (Laughing) Chronic misfits. …

 

 

Jason Calacanis 看來非常不爽 Yahoo! 切腹這件事,不過他自己也搞了一個 Mahalo 人力搜尋引擎,立場算比較不中立:

The once proud warrior of the internet space laid down its sword,  knelt at the feet of Microsoft and gutted itself today. (很生動)

All that being said, Microsoft’s obsession with taking Yahoo’s second  place position and adding it to their 3rd place position is not an indication that it’s time to sell. Far from it. When Microsoft is  interested in a space it is a clear sign that you should be investing in it–not selling it.

To say it clearly: Microsoft does not enter a market unless it’s  important, huge and on the way to becoming even bigger. Microsoft is the buy sign, not the sell sign. The people at Microsoft are brilliant and not to be underestimated–history has shown this to be true.

 

 

Ballmer 解釋了為什麼不是 upfront cash deal:

"It could not be all up front, that I could not do," he said. "If everything is all up front, Yahoo! has no motivation to drive searches. I like it better if [the deal] gives us both ongoing incentives" to build the search business.

Yahoo! 也還是能 access 搜尋引擎內容,讓 Display Ads 變得更精準:

And Yahoo will be able to tap into records of searches for its own purposes, like monitoring the online behavior of anonymous users to more efficiently place online display advertisements.

 

 

最後一點是我個人的小小想法。不知道各方分析師是否估算過 Google 搜尋市占率每掉一個百分比,對營收的影響有多大?微軟、雅虎進行搜尋合作後,之後的競爭意義,將是從之前 「Bing 搶了 Yahoo! 搜尋的多少多少市場份額 (確實也是如此,Google 於 Bing 推出後市占率仍持續成長。)」轉變到「Bing + Yahoo-Bing 搶了 Google 多少多少市場份額」。這對 Google 來說有兩方面重大影響。1) 前面提到的槓桿效應:Google 市佔下滑一點,對營收的衝擊等於是乘上好幾倍。2) Google 被迫要花更多心思照顧搜尋引擎事業,勢必分散投資在 Apps, OS Platform 等新業務上的注意力。

 

直搗黃龍大概就是這個意思。

 

souces:

TechFlash

Forbes

BusinessWeek

The Jason Calicanis Web

NY Times

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花了一點時間快速瀏覽過兩家公司剛出爐的財報,可以發現近年來 MSFT 賣命買回庫藏股、配股息等動作,讓手上的現金減少許多 (60 億美金),GOOG 則是逐年累積中 (110 億美金)。然而,加上高流動性的短期投資,MSFT 手上握有的總值 (314 億美金),仍是驚人的天文數字。也遙遙領先 GOOG (193 億)。

 

讓我意外的是,上個會計年度結算下來, GOOG 的淨利率沒有想像中高 (19.39%),反倒是 MSFT 仍有接近 3 成的水準 (29.26%)。但今年以來,GOOG 厲行成本管控,預估今年會計年度結算,到達 2成5 的淨利率應該不是問題 (目前我粗估約 26.39%)。反倒是 MSFT 由於這連兩季營收不如預期,且重大產品即將上市,R&D 的投資持續增加,(Cost of Revenue 也增加,猜測因 Online Service 的營運費用認列在這項,細節要再去確認一下。) 所以 2009 年會計年度的淨利率下滑 (24.93%),且很有可能輸給 GOOG 2009 會計年度的淨利率表現。

 

GOOG 連兩季成本管控超乎爾街預期的好,造就傑出的淨利率,分析師 (高盛、瑞士信貸) 紛紛將目標價從四月份的 $400 左右調整到七月份的 $500 左右水準。MSFT 本月財報尚未公佈之前,分析師普遍把目標價定在 $27 左右,現在則是不明 XD。

 

以下整理一份捉對廝殺比較表,大家來感覺一下 GOOG 相對於 MSFT 大約是「身材」多粗壯的一名對手。就目前數字看來,GOOG 全年的營收和淨利大約都只有 MSFT 的三分之一。下次遇到那種被媒體洗腦的路人,記得提醒 他/灺: 微軟還沒要被 Google 征服。現在微軟的賺錢實力大概還等於 3 家 Google 加起來。

 

未來呢?讓我們緊盯每一季的成績單吧。

 

現金與約當現金, June 30, 2009 * 以下數字單位皆為<百萬美元>

Microsoft Google
$6,067 $11,911

 

現金與短期投資, June  30, 2009

Microsoft Google
$31,447 $19,344

 

全年營收, 2008 會計年度

Microsoft Google
$60,420 $21,796

 

全年營收, 2009 會計年度 (MSFT 會計年度截止日為6月30日,GOOG 為12月31日。為方便當下比較,我直接把 GOOG 至2009年6月30日為止的營收乘以 2。  )

Microsoft Google
$58,437 $22,064

 

全年稅後淨利, 2008 會計年度

Microsoft Google
$17,681 $4,227

 

全年稅後淨利, 2009 會計年度 (MSFT 會計年度截止日為6月30日,GOOG 為12月31日。為方便當下比較,我直接把 GOOG 至2009年6月30日為止的淨利乘以 2。  )

Microsoft Google
14,569 5,815

 

淨利率,  2008 會計年度

Microsoft Google
29.26% 19.39%

 

淨利率, 2009 會計年度 (Goole 淨利率為根據前述營收與淨利預估值推算)

Microsoft Google
24.93% 26.36%

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Q: Maybe a better way to ask that question would have been, in this new world, is there a place still for traditional operating systems and productivity software that you sell for $250?

Absolutely. As I point out in the chapter on how Microsoft competed with free, what they have found is that you can compete with free. You’re not selling software. What you’re selling is something else. Convenience, risk-reduction, peace of mind, a contractual promise. You’re selling something that people value. (source)

 

MP3到處流竄,為什麼付費的 iTunes 還是能做起來?破解軟體到處流竄,為什麼付費的 Apple Apps Store 做的起來?我自己親身經歷後 ,發現他們賣的不是商品本身的相對價值,他們賣的是上述提到的 “Convenience”。

 

當你推出某種流程,它的便利性大於使用盜版所需付出的成本 (含搜尋種子、載點,下載等待時間,抓到假檔、病毒檔風險,操作摸索等),以及這種便利性,大於大腦做出「選擇」所需的成本 (iTunes 或 Apps Store 自動幫你分類、過濾實用軟體或熱門音樂,並提供其他使用者的評分或推薦)。以上情況都成立,使用者就願意付費。這種流程,就是潛在的獲利模式。

 

大多數人都是懶惰鬼,大多數人都不喜歡花時間做選擇。Windows Mobile for Marketplace 是否能成功,就看流程。

 

如果花 80 元,順路吃頓麥當勞早餐可以帶來愉快的一天 (起碼半天),那花 35 元 ($0.99 USD) 順手下 載一首音樂滿足飢渴的情緒,何樂而不為呢?

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算是滿清新的見解。有別於媒體的膝反射:今天看到 Microsoft 推出 Bing 就說 Google 即將面臨危機;明天看到 Google 推出 Chrome OS 就說 Microsoft 即將大難臨頭…

 

我個人喜歡最後一段:

Google engineers are allowed to spend 20 percent of their time on new ideas — yet of those thousands of ideas, the company can really invest in only a dozen per year, leading to dissatisfaction and defections as the best nerds leave to pursue their dreams.

Maybe they’ll leave for the startup that finally topples Microsoft … or Google. But until then these companies will posture, spend a little money on research and development, and keep each other in check, while reporters and publications pretend that it matters.

 

Hackers 最需要的就是成就感呀!

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Takeaway: I don’t micromanage, but I do ask questions that require a discussion of detail.

 

Takeaway: I “budget” my time.

 

Takeaway: (on hiring) Tell me about your passion and what makes you so proud of. Your passion lies in your eyes which won’t lie.

 

Takeaway: Delegate decision-making process, and endorse decisions made by your people.

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One of the things that is true if you worked at Microsoft, and it’s very stunning for people who come from the outside and come into Microsoft, is that when a company is very, very, very successful, a lot of the challenges that you’re faced with are a direct result of that success. And in Microsoft’s case we have had the ability to say yes and add more over the years in terms of solving more problems for customers, creating more offerings, and it’s really great from an opportunity perspective, because you address more and more of the market. But as a side effect of that you create internal complexity that you really don’t understand until there’s a forcing function that makes you understand it.

- Ray Ozzie  (source)

當一間公司相當成功後,接踵而來的挑戰,往往是過去的成功所堆積的包袱…

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每年到了端午節,大家期待吃粽子,我則是期待 AllThingsD Conference。今年Steve Ballmer 接受訪談影片精華片段如下 (而且還已經加了字幕):

 

 

大聲喊出BING!BING!這段有經典到。

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老實說一年多來很少見到 Ballmer 談企管心法的文章,總算昨天 (2009/5/16) 紐約時報 Corner Office 專欄請來 Ballmer 暢談想法,這不完整收錄一下是不行的啊!

 

開始之前,先節錄本日佳句:

Q: How do you assess job candidates?

A: … I try to figure out sort of a combination of I.Q. and passion. I just ask somebody to tell me what they’ve done that they are really proud of and tell me about it. And if it’s something you are proud of, you should be able to answer any question I can come up with, at least at a level that would satisfy my interest. I ought to be able to see your passion. It might be quiet passion; it might be bubbly passion. But I should be able to sense that you are one of those people who just sort of throws themselves into things.

 

好,訪談全文開始:

 

This interview of Steven A. Ballmer, the chief executive of Microsoft, was conducted and condensed by Adam Bryant.

 

Q. Are there areas you want to improve as a leader?

A. I race too much. My brain races too much, so even if I’ve listened to everything somebody said, unless you show that you’ve digested it, people don’t think they are being well heard. Sometimes you really don’t hear because you’re racing. It’s just the way my brain works. My brain is just chop, chop, chop, chop, chop. And so, if you really want to get the best out of people, you have to really hear them and they have to feel like they’ve been really heard. So I’ve got to learn to slow down and improve in that dimension, both to make me better and to make the people around me better.

 

Q. What’s it like to be in a meeting run by Steve Ballmer?

A. I’ve changed that, really in the last couple years. The mode of Microsoft meetings used to be: You come with something we haven’t seen in a slide deck or presentation. You deliver the presentation. You probably take what I will call “the long and winding road.” You take the listener through your path of discovery and exploration, and you arrive at a conclusion.

That’s kind of the way I used to like to do it, and the way Bill [Gates] used to kind of like to do it. And it seemed like the best way to do it, because if you went to the conclusion first, you’d get: “What about this? Have you thought about this?” So people naturally tried to tell you all the things that supported the decision, and then tell you the decision.

I decided that’s not what I want to do anymore. I don’t think it’s productive. I don’t think it’s efficient. I get impatient. So most meetings nowadays, you send me the materials and I read them in advance. And I can come in and say: “I’ve got the following four questions. Please don’t present the deck.” That lets us go, whether they’ve organized it that way or not, to the recommendation. And if I have questions about the long and winding road and the data and the supporting evidence, I can ask them. But it gives us greater focus.

 

Q. How do you assess job candidates?

A. If they come from inside the business, the best predictor of future success is past success. It’s not 100 percent, but it’s a reasonable predictor. For an external candidate, what I’ve found is that reference checks are super-important. I didn’t used to believe so much in reference checks. You can always get somebody to say something nice about you. But the truth is, if you ask enough questions and you ask around, you can really get a profile of who’s accomplished various things and who hasn’t.

And I try to figure out sort of a combination of I.Q. and passion. I just ask somebody to tell me what they’ve done that they are really proud of and tell me about it. And if it’s something you are proud of, you should be able to answer any question I can come up with, at least at a level that would satisfy my interest. I ought to be able to see your passion. It might be quiet passion; it might be bubbly passion. But I should be able to sense that you are one of those people who just sort of throws themselves into things.

 

Q. Is there a skill or qualification or trait that you’re looking for in prospective hires that didn’t matter as much 10 years ago?

A. Mostly, I’m still looking for what I’ve always looked for: extremely smart and talented people who love to work hard, who are passionate about technology and who have a great foundation in math and science. But compared to 10 years ago, technology is more complex, products and services span people’s lives in new ways, and our business is much more global. So it’s more important that people can think outside the confines of their individual expertise and their product group and connect the dots between technologies, customer needs and markets in new ways.

 

Q. What’s the most challenging part of your job?

A. Finding the right balance between optimism and realism. I’m an optimist by nature, and I start from the belief that you can always succeed if you have the right amount of focus combined with the right amount of hard work. So I can get frustrated when progress runs up against issues that should have been anticipated or that simply couldn’t have been foreseen. A realist knows that a certain amount of that is inevitable, but the optimist in me always struggles when progress doesn’t match my expectations.

 

Q. Fill in the blank. You want the culture of your company to be more _____ ?

A. Efficient. The right word is efficient. That’s the direction that every business leader is steering their company culture toward right now. Given the current economic climate and the uncertainty about how long the recession will last, this is a time when organizations need to do more with less, and Microsoft is no exception. We’ve made good progress, but for a company that has grown every year for more than 30 years, learning how to operate under more constrained circumstances is not always that easy.

At the same time, the need to be more efficient drives us all toward sharper focus on what is important and what can truly move the needle in terms of meeting customer needs and taking market share. Of course, we need to be innovative, but we also need to be efficient.

 

Q. Any books on management and leadership that you’ve found particularly useful?

A. Jim Collins’s book “Built to Last.”

 

Q. In all the speeches you’ve given, is there a favorite line or story or passage or quotation?

A. In February I was invited to share my business perspective on the economic downturn with House Democrats at their annual retreat. In that speech, I got to share something that my dad always told me growing up, which is a simple piece of advice that really shaped my approach to life and to business.

My dad worked for Ford for 30 years. When I was a kid, he’d say: “If you’re going to do a job, do a job. If you’re not going to do a job, don’t do a job.” What he meant was, if you really want to accomplish anything, you have to be committed, motivated, tenacious and smart about what you do. That’s really just the essence of the American work ethic, but it’s one of the most important things I ever learned.

 

Q. If you had to choose another profession, what would it be?

A. Education, probably. I like working with young people, and I think it’s really important to encourage talent. I love basketball, so I could see myself as a high school basketball coach. I think a basketball team that I coached would have a really good chance of being a winner.

 

Q. What would you like business schools to focus on more, or less?

A. I’d like to see more emphasis on the importance of taking the long view. Companies focus too much on short-term results in business. It takes patience to build a great business, and sometimes you have to be willing to make the long-term investment and then keep at it if you want to succeed.

 

Q. If you could teach any b-school course, including one that you create, what would it be?

A. Leadership. Microsoft has grown from 30 people to more than 90,000 since I started, so I’ve had the chance to play a leadership role at practically every stage imaginable in a company’s growth and development. I’ve learned a lot about leadership along the way from some great people that I’ve worked with and through experience.

I’ve come to believe that to be a great leader, you have to combine thought leadership, business leadership and great people management. I think most people tend to focus more on one of those three. I used to think it was all about thought leadership. Some people think it’s all about your ability to manage people. But the truth is, great leaders have to have a mix of those things.

 

(source, NY Times)

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首先是客場球隊 - Google:

 

G公司日前宣佈一項新技術:Google Apps Directoty Sync,讓企業 IT 部門可以將Microsoft Active DirectoryLotus Domino 的帳號 (alias) 資訊同步到 Google Apps 當中。小弟私以為 AD (Active Directory) 的便利性和延展性是 MS OS/Server 在企業端能佔有一席之地的關鍵性優勢,G公司這個動作等同於攻進五角大樓。值得繫好安全帶看雙方精彩演出。

 

接下讓我們歡迎主場球隊 – Microsoft:

 

M公司則是透過 Facebook 最新開放的 API – Open Stream 中大秀兩手。Open Stream 終於讓程式開發人員光明正大摸走存取使用者的狀態即時更新 (e.g. News Feeds),這和其他服務 mash-up 之後將有無限可能。慶祝新 API 釋出的活動中,來自M公司的兩支團隊只花 72 小時就開發出令人驚豔的兩組應用。其一是建立在 Silverlight 技術之上;另一則是建立在 .NET 技術之上。Demo 影片附於文末。

 

M公司不虧是 Facebook 的早期投資人 (雖然目前看來是套牢),然而,套房裡搭起的友誼橋樑不是外人能輕易體會的!FB 與「投資人」之間的曖昧關係,是否暗示著未來將有更多合作機會?我猜 YES。小弟私以為對 Mark Zuckerberg 來說,G公司比M公司更像潛在競爭者。

 

看看這段 Demo 影片,如果無名小站也開放能 access 到正妹相簿的 API,那另一支基於 Silverlight 技術的 Killer Applicaiton 肯定會很快在台灣問世!

 

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聽說這系列影片叫做”Home, Work and Play”,首先暴光的是 Home 與 Work 兩支:

 

 

 

第一支還好,第二支後半段…該不會是在暗示微軟未來將轉型切入魔術市場吧!

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1. 營收 $13.65 billion,年減 6%

2. 淨利 $2.98 billion,年減 32% (痛阿)

3. 現金、約當現金、與短期投資部位 $25.3 billion,年增 7%

4. 稀釋後單季 EPS $0.33,年減 30%

 

心得:近期逢彽介入,等年底回升。

 

相關連結:官方新聞稿

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Steve Jobs: …And I think building a company’s really hard, and it requires your greatest persuasive abilities to hire the best people you can and keep them at your company and keep them working, doing the best work of their lives, hopefully. And Bill’s been able to stay with it for all these years. (一開始雙方互相讚對對方,Steve Jobs  特別指出說服力是公司初期招募與留住人才的關鍵。他本身就把 Steve Wozniak 從 HP 的金飯碗中遊說到車庫,一起創辦 Apple Computer。)

 

Bill Gates: …And his ability to always come around and figure out where that next bet should be has been phenomenal. (Bill Gates 稱讚 Steve Jobs 在在看趨勢與消費者需求這方面的眼光神準。)

 

Bill Gates: …And we had really bet our future on the Macintosh being successful, and then, hopefully, graphics interfaces in general being successful, but first and foremost, the thing that would popularize that being the Macintosh. (早期 Microsoft 是 Apple Computer 少數合作密切的 application vendors 之一。Microsoft 也把身家賭在 Apple 的麥金塔電腦。)

 

Steve Jobs: …But the net result of it was, was there were too many people at Apple and in the Apple ecosystem playing the game of, for Apple to win, Microsoft has to lose. And it was clear that you didn’t have to play that game because Apple wasn’t going to beat Microsoft. Apple didn’t have to beat Microsoft. Apple had to remember who Apple was because they’d forgotten who Apple was. (Steve Jobs 回憶,直到他1997年回鍋上任以來,Apple 內部仍瀰漫著反Microsoft 情緒,員工腦中裝滿了與 Microsoft 的零和遊戲。但他一走馬上任,第一件事就是告訴大家:Apple 的成功不一定要建立在 Microsoft 的失敗之上。同時也在 1997 Macworld 大會上宣布 Microsoft 將成為 Apple 的 strategic partner。)

 

Steve Jobs: The art of those commercials (I’m MAC v.s. I’m PC) is not to be mean, but it’s actually for the guys to like each other. Thanks. PC guy is great. Got a big heart.

Bill Gates: His mother loves him.

Steve Jobs: His mother loves him.

Steve Jobs: PC guy’s what makes it all work, actually.

(Steve Jobs 說:是 PC Guy 讓 Mac v.s. PC 系列廣告獲得空前成功,一切都要感謝PC Guy.  :D )

 

Steve Jobs: …You know, what’s really interesting is–and we talked about this earlier today–if you look at the reason that the iPod exists and the Apple’s in that marketplace, it’s because these really great Japanese consumer electronics companies who kind of own the portable music market, invented it and owned it, couldn’t do the appropriate software, couldn’t conceive of and implement the appropriate software. Because an iPod’s really just software. It’s software in the iPod itself, it’s software on the PC or the Mac, and it’s software in the cloud for the store. And it’s in a beautiful box, but it’s software. If you look at what a Mac is, it’s OS X, right? It’s in a beautiful box, but it’s OS X. And if you look at what an iPhone will hopefully be, it’s software.

 

…And so the big secret about Apple, of course–not-so-big secret maybe–is that Apple views itself as a software company… (Steve Jobs 認為 Apple 的成功來自 software design,iPod 說穿了就是成功的software (含iTunes) 在一個漂亮的盒子裡,Mac 說穿了也是一個成功的 software 在一個漂亮的盒子裡。Apple 甚至比較喜歡把自己定義為 software company。說真的,山寨當道,hardware 可以很快被模仿走,software 卻很難,君不見市面流通的山寨版 iPhone OS 還是長得很山寨?獲利模式建立在 software solution 之上的公司,要時時擔心被大量盜版,但若同時擁有 hareware + software 的 vertical solution,可以握有更多對產品品質的掌控度。)

 

Bill Gates: The mainstream is always under attack. (簡潔有力,Windows, Office = mainstream)

 

Steve Jobs: …What I’m saying is, I think the marriage of some really great client apps with some really great cloud services is incredibly powerful and right now, can be way more powerful than just having a browser on the client. (WOW, Steve Jobs 也 echoed 微軟的 Software Plus Services 策略。)

 

Bill Gates: …How quickly all these things that have been somewhat specialized, the navigation device, the digital wallet, the phone, the camera, the video camera, how quickly those all come together, it’s hard to chart out. But eventually, you’ll be able to pick something that has the capability to do every one of those things. (my thought: 創新比較有可能發生在 specialized devices 上,但 specilized devices 終究會匯聚成 genenal purpose devices。然後失去創新動力,然後再引領出另外一波 specialized devices 創新,然後再匯聚,and the process repeats itself again and again.)

 

Steve Jobs: …No, that wasn’t my answer. You know, when Bill and I first met each other and worked together in the early days, generally, we were both the youngest guys in the room, right? Individually or together. I’m about six months older than he is, but roughly the same age. And now when we’re working at our respective companies, I don’t know about you, but I’m the oldest guy in the room most of the time. And that’s why I love being here.

 

  …And, you know, I think of most things in life as either a Bob Dylan or a Beatles song, but there’s that one line in that one Beatles song, “you and I have memories longer than the road that stretches out ahead.” And that’s clearly true here. (回首從前,Seteve Jobs 和 Bill Gates 很早就互相認識,也曾是全公司最年輕的員工,如今兩卻往往是”the oldest in the room”。)

 

Steve Jobs: …You know, because Woz and I started the company based on doing the whole banana, we weren’t so good at partnering with people. And, you know, actually, the funny thing is, Microsoft’s one of the few companies we were able to partner with that actually worked for both companies. And we weren’t so good at that, where Bill and Microsoft were really good at it because they didn’t make the whole thing in the early days and they learned how to partner with people really well.

 

And I think if Apple could have had a little more of that in its DNA, it would have served it extremely well. And I don’t think Apple learned that until, you know, a few decades later. (初期 Microsoft 在尋找合作夥伴這方面做的比 Apple 好很多。Steve Jobs 甚至認為,如果當年Apple也多一點”partnering DNA”,情況也許會大不相同。)

 

Click here to see the original videos

 

And here is the bonus - Mac. v.s. PC, kiddy version:

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繼紅髮 Lauren 後,此次我們找來了美國阿宅擔綱主角演出,這回任務雷同:$1500 美金預算 (比上次多$500),你能買到符合理想規格的電腦,製作單位就幫你出錢。當然這一切都是模擬情境劇,重點只是在凸顯一件事…

 

“Mac is so sexy, but…”

 

Ouch!, price-value ratio, it hurts.

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Basic Developer Needs

  • Food
  • Quiet
  • Keyboard
  • Command prompt
  • Cool idea
  • Ship it

(source)

 

科技業的核心競爭力是developer,so treat them well.

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Microsoft added support for automatic mood detection in Windows Live Messenger. “We’re happy to announce that due to the great breakthroughs from Microsoft Research, we have an alpha version working that monitors your real-time physiological state and translates that into a mood (happy, sad, anxious, etc), such that you would never have to enter an emoticon again.” (source)

 

感謝微軟研究院 (MSR) 學者博士們不眠不休地研發,一個號稱 ”Human Attitude Heuristic Algorithm” 的演算法終於問世。第一個實務運用就是 Windows Live Messenger 2009 即將新增的情緒偵測功能。

 

MSN情緒偵測模式能即時追蹤你聊天時的心理狀態,並自動將結果轉換為對應的表情符號,省去點選/輸入表情符號的時間。例如:webcam 偵測到你笑的表情,就會自動在對話中幫你加上:),偵測到你吐舌頭(?!),就會幫你加上:P,麥克風偵測到你大笑,就會自動幫你加上:D,鍵盤偵測到你輸入速度越來越快,也會幫你的對話補上痛苦或緊張的表情。( 不知偵測到哪種緒才會出現台灣人專用表情 — XD )

 

 

往年好像都是G公司Y公司玩這些把戲玩比較大。愚人節惡搞新聞稿想必是個不錯的PR機會。也可以藉此看出冷冰冰大公司難得的「人味 (personality) 」

 

愚人節產品發表也能反映區域文化色彩,像是Google China (谷歌中國),就推出了十分帶有中國特色笑點 (囧) 的愚人節產品

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你猜到了:Wikipedia

Encarta has been a popular product around the world for many years. However, the category of traditional encyclopedias and reference material has changed. People today seek and consume information in considerably different ways than in years past. As part of Microsoft’s goal to deliver the most effective and engaging resources for today’s consumer, it has made the decision to exit the Encarta business. (source: Encarta website FAQ)

比爾蓋茲在 <擁抱未來, The Road Ahead> 一書中(1995),曾經反覆提到光碟加百科全書就像是撒尿蝦和牛丸的結合一樣有搞頭。如今再次驗證了計畫趕不上變化,變化趕不上聽話這句話。但說到底,微軟還是一間能捨能放的公司。 Sometimes, winners do quit.

 

這也讓我想起周杰倫感人歌曲 - 聽媽媽的話

聽 ~ user 的 ~ 話,別讓股東受傷~

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我特別喜歡這句:“I’m just not cool enough to be a Mac person.” (片中女主角逛了Apple店之後發現東西都超貴爆預算所說出的話。)

 

就是這句話讓這支AD在美國部落圈廣為流傳,什麼都是假的,只有省錢是真的!哈哈。既然常常被虧,那不如跳出來自己虧自己,幽默自嘲人人愛啊!

 

btw, I’m a PC 之可愛4.5歲妹妹篇也值得一看。

 

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年紀真的有份量。摩斯漢堡爺爺 (Walter Mossberg) 就是那種長得很有智慧,說話慢慢的,聽他說什麼你都會很想相信的那種。不虧是開箱文界的泰斗啊!

 

摩斯漢堡爺爺個人小檔案:

  1. 從1970年起就在華爾街日報擔任記者與編輯。
  2. 1991年開始為華爾街日報撰寫 ”Personal Technology”  科技專欄,想必19年來教育了不少有「數位落差」的大老闆。
  3. 得過很多獎,拿過 University of Rhode Island 榮譽博士學位。
  4. Wired 雜誌曾稱他為 "The Kingmaker",他的評論專欄決定了不少科技產品 (甚至是產業?!) 的死活。
  5. 謠傳是目前華爾街日報薪資最高的journalist。
  6. 和現在已經變成矽谷內線天后的 Kara Swisher 共同主持 D: All Things Digital Conference,兩年前比爾蓋茲和賈伯斯就是在這個年度場合中坐在一起展開歷史性對談

 

WSJ 看似保守,但卻在 digital journalism 這塊有很多大膽作為。光看 All Things D 主筆文章的辛辣程度,以及 kara Swisher 把攝影機拿在手上晃來晃去的突擊式採訪影片就可略知一二。更不用講摩斯爺爺在家裡書房用 webcam 自拍的 product review 影片啦!

 

(2007年5月比爾蓋茲與賈伯斯在D5同台對談精華 (幽默)片段)

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Thank you young guys, you created tons of job opportunities (including mine), you made our life interesting, you disrupted the world once ruled by beauracrats.

 

let’s see the numbers in detail:

Founder Company Age at Founding
Bill Gates Microsoft 19
Paul Allen Microsoft 21
Steve Jobs Apple 20
Steve Wozniak Apple 25
Larry Page Google 24
Sergey Brin Google 24
Jerry Yang Yahoo! 26
David Filo Yahoo! 28
Mark Zuckerberg Facebook 19
Dustin Moskovitz Facebook 19
Chris Hughes Facebook 19
Chad Hurley YouTube 27
Steve Chen YouTube 26
Jawed Karim YouTube 25

 

* The average age: 23

* Two were born in Taipei, Taiwan

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Today’s news: Microsoft (MSFT), via its Federated Media ad network/platform/agency, is sponsoring a page that collects Tweets from various executives. Twitter will get an undisclosed payment for giving the site its stamp of approval and for promoting the site on Twitter itself. Federated says it plans on launching similar programs on Twitter with other clients. (source)

 

image

 

你可以在這頁特製的 Twitter aggregator 中,找到各公司高級長官的 tweets。當然,別忘了看看你們公司是不是也已經 ”PeopleReady (for Twittering?!)” 。按一下中間上面的Banner 就可以知道答案。

 

Brilliant!

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Windwos Mobile 6.5在使用者介面上做了滿大的改變。我特別喜歡「使用者一開手機會想要看到什麼」的思考方向。在WM 6.5,一按下電源,在鎖定螢幕的畫面中,你會看到大大的時間、緊接在下方的下一個行程,以及位於上方的重要通知圖示。按一下上方的通知圖示,你可以先預覽有多少通未接來電、未讀簡訊、未讀郵件等等。

 

 

 

操作上也大量利用了拖–拉的概念。start button按下去之後的蜂巢式(honycomb)圖示加大,上下滑動切換頁面流暢度提昇,也會自動在下一頁自動停下來。

image 

 

首頁Today畫面以大字體文字加拖拉光棒呈現,應該還滿適合單手操作。橫跨螢幕的光棒很重要,因為當以單手(右手)拿手機時,大拇指才能輕鬆在螢幕靠右處挑選功能。從此大拇指不必再為了按左上方的開始功能鍵ㄍ一ㄥ到抽筋。

image

 

選單也讓字體放大,更好按了。

image

 

設計師在科技公司日後應該會扮演越來越重要的角色。說不定還會有公司設立CDO – Chief Design Officer 等級的高階職位。有趣的是,幾小時前,Google的首席設計師Doug Bowman才剛在自己的Blog公開因為受不了工程師”Data Driven”文化,憤而離職的消息。

 

ps. 這支在Mix09 Demo WM6.5的手機是HTC Touch Pro,台灣之光阿!

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Gmail Blog說以後放錯收件人、打錯字、忘記打主旨等「手滑」等級的失誤,現在都有解了。你可以在Gmail Lab (Eng) 中開啟這項新功能,日後寄出的信件,會有5秒delay時間,讓你取消寄送。不過5秒夠讓潛意識 (或反射神經) 通知大腦 something wrong 嗎?

 

Outlook 應該也可以加入這個功能,而且如果能設計成可自行設定延遲送出秒數,那應該可以減少許多 email 擦槍走火事件。畢竟很多人都是寄送鍵一按,心境一轉,氣就消了,但這時才後悔口氣下太重,一切都為時已晚。

 

偉哉科技,國家棟樑應該多朝這種輔助「人性缺陷」的方向,去思考下一個改變世界的發明。

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昨天和今天看到兩則新聞,讓我有種改變遲早會出現,但似乎都比想像中早實現的感覺。

 

第一則是Google Official Blog 在這禮拜三終於掙脫privacy concern的枷鎖,宣佈進軍Behavioral Targeting Ads市場,並同時開放新服務Ad Preferences Manager Beta測試。透過Ad Preference Manager,你可以先挑選自己有興趣的領域、主題,日後Google遞送的廣告就會依你的嗜好過濾,讓廣告對你的干擾度降到最低,你也比較有興趣點廣告,更重要的是,Agency因此賺更多錢,Publisher因此賺更多錢,Google因此賺更多錢,當然,Advertiser的conversion rate也能提高,一切皆大歡喜。

 

那我怎麼會特別想提這則消息呢?兩年前,我有陣子天天braistorming新idea,也把這些想法順手紀錄在ideaisqueen部落格中,其中開發「讓使用者自行選擇興趣、嗜好的廣告比對服務」就是其中之一。當時很迷StarWars,巴不得所有AdSense送出來的廣告都跟週邊商品相關,自然而然覺得世界上一定還有許多人同我有類似的需求,總覺得Google早該想到這點,讓使用者手動設定廣告遞送的條件。

 

第二則新聞則是剛出爐的2009年富比士世界富豪排行榜,這回比爾蓋茲重回首富寶座,而我也正好於約莫一年半前,寫過比爾蓋茲13年來首度丟掉首富地位的紀念文一篇。當時榜首被原本第三名的墨西哥電信大亨Carlos Slim取代。然而我相信以股票市值計價的資產,遲早會因市場波動而有所改變,但想不到改變會來得這麼快,想不到我們會在兩年後壟罩於金融風暴當中,也想不到文章寫完半年內,先是巴菲特擠掉墨西哥電信大亨成為2008年首富接棒人,又同時於12個月之間 (道瓊一萬四千點到七千點之間),將首富接力棒又交還給比爾蓋茲。

 

莫非定律改寫一下,我們生活的世界,不就是環繞在下面這句spell當中?

 

Anything that can change will change eventually.

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image 

(愛護眼睛,點圖放大。來源: 聽說是普遍認為具可信度的Net Applications)

 

本月(2009/2)特色:

1. Safari 市占率連續成長數個月後,2月份首次下滑

2. IE 市占率雖仍下滑,但幅度減小

 

我最近總有個未來瀏覽器應該朝企業用戶和一般使用者分兩個版本開發的想法: 企業版本專注於開發高安全性、簡易部署(&管控)、加速瀏覽等核心功能,消費者端則專注於開發多元化 (a.k.a.讓你外掛裝到掛)、簡易操作介面、可個人化、情境化版本 (e.g. 在線上購物模式、線上轉帳模式、線上閒逛模式、線上遊戲模式等不同情境中,自動切換安全性等級與載入控制項等背景行為) 。無論是FF想前進企業市場,或IE想繼續把握消費者市場,都可以考慮考慮。天真的我認為,雙方的弱項 (以及逐漸變成包袱的強項),應該可以透過開發對應版本,逐漸打下一直吃不到的市場。

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Microsoft Office Vision 2019

 

Office Lab的”envisioning”系列影片有更多大家幻想未來生活的影片:http://www.officelabs.com/Pages/Envisioning.aspx

 

不過那幾個觸控手勢似乎已經被玩爛了,是時候想想還有哪些符合人體工學的動作適合運用在觸控界面上。影片嘛,想像空間還很大。

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可以到這邊下載IE 8 RC1,目前支援Vista, XP, Windows Server 2008, Windows Server 2003 等OS。根據IE官方部落格的說法,如果在Windows 7安裝,會告訴你,咳咳,不支援,因為你已經是IE8了XD

 

Note: If you are running Windows 7 Beta, you will not be able to install IE8 RC1. You will get an error message saying that your operating system is not supported since IE8 already ships in Win7. The IE8 RC1 available from Microsoft Download Center is a standalone upgrade for downlevel version of the OS only: Windows Vista, Windows XP, Windows Server 2008 and Window Server 2003.

 

如果已經是IE 8 Beta的使用者,可以選擇直接升級。不過裝好記得會需要重新開機一次。

 

另外剛剛也發現有一個叫做IE的Twitter Account偷偷加我好友 :D。這個帳號1/23號才開始正式運作。想必不久的將來各個產品線,尤其是consumer端的,都應該要有一個Twitter Account呀!

image

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  5. 微軟史上最大的廣告計畫

Wall Street Journal的資深科技專欄作家 - Walt Mossberg,他的評論一向以簡單、公正著名。相信這段review出來,能影響到不少閱讀WSJ的大人物

(評論原文)

 

我也是他的(home) video review專欄的忠實觀眾。每次看他穿不同衣服在書房對著webcam講話,非常有鄰家爺爺的感覺呀!WSJ的AllthingsD Video網頁還有Kara Swisher等紅牌專欄作家的vlog/blog,其中Kara的blog - Boom Town,08年以來我覺得已經快變成MicroHoo謠言的發源地了XD。

 

Walt Mossberg甚至還有一個active Twitter account:

image

 

很難想像WSJ玩這麼多新媒體吧!老字號publisher在兩三年前,就搭上next web的列車了,誰說傳統媒體終將式微呢?

 

(Follow-up Interview: Mossberg最後認為Windows 7 Beta表現已經勝過XP和Vista,但我們真正要看的是,Windows 7有機會勝過今年將推出的Mac OS X - Snow Leopard 嗎?)

 

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營收沒差多少,淨利卻大幅滑落,這當然要找出剛公佈的成本支出數字來來瞧一瞧:

 

image

 

很明顯地,與去年同期相比,Cost of revenue增加了10.27%,Research and development增加了21.49%,Sale and marketing增加了7.08%,General and administrative減少了22.05%,總營運成本支出增加了7.83%。

 

我只能說,微軟還是很有誠意的,不畏景氣寒冬,仍然投資重金在R&D上,大家可以好好期待Windows 7和Office 14等產品。反過來說,Sales and marketing的支出比我想像中的還要少…(marketing好艱辛啊!) 但這也形同於告訴大家,微軟不是一間以sales ( IBM) 或 marketing (Apple) 做為核心競爭力的公司。

 

雖然你現在正在用的軟體可能介面笨了點,速度慢了點,但在你抱怨的分秒之間,這套軟體的母公司已經砸下數千美金在研發與改善之上。如我上次寫過的一篇文章,微軟符合「把市場財富轉換到有價值事物產出」這樣的一個企業使命。(老實說,當你知道你送給廠商的錢。最後被拿去買一堆sales preaching廣告,你會開心嗎?當你知道你送給廠商的錢,最後是被拿去投資研發、技術客服,你會不開心嗎?)

 

剛剛無聊算了一下,以2.29 Billion美金的R&D費用來算,微軟在9月到12月之間(120天),每秒平均砸下220.87美金做研發!在抱怨軟體難用(或當機XD)的那幾秒之間,已經有一具數百萬$瓦數的capital engine動了起來,debugging, optimizing, innovating, 為我們許下一個更美好的未來

 

真的,暫時忘掉那些五彩繽紛的廣告詞吧,我覺得微軟仍是一間道道地地of the technology, by the technology, for the technology的「科技公司」。它是為了以科技改善人類生活而存在。

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話說剛剛一看MSFT急跌近8% (updated:收盤跌11.71%),馬上調earning call出來看。哇,全球營收比去年同期成長2%,但淨利比去年同期下滑11%。其中Client的營收掉了8%,Server & Tools的營收增加了15%,EDD拜Xbox 360不景氣中的宅經濟所賜,也有3%的同期營收成長。

 

節錄自官方公告

REDMOND, Wash. — Jan. 22, 2009 — Microsoft Corp. today announced revenue of $16.63 billion for the second quarter ended Dec. 31, 2008, a 2% increase over the same period of the prior year. Operating income, net income and diluted earnings per share for the quarter were $5.94 billion, $4.17 billion and $0.47, declines of 8%, 11% and 6%, respectively, compared with the prior year.

Client revenue declined 8% as a result of PC market weakness and a continued shift to lower priced netbooks. However, strong annuity licensing drove Server & Tools revenue growth of 15%. Entertainment and Devices revenue grew 3% driven by strong holiday demand for Xbox 360 consoles with a record 6 million units sold in the quarter.

 

當然謠傳很久的傳言也成真了:

In light of the further deterioration of global economic conditions, Microsoft announced additional steps to manage costs, including the reduction of headcount-related expenses, vendors and contingent staff, facilities, capital expenditures and marketing. As part of this plan, Microsoft will eliminate up to 5,000 jobs in R&D, marketing, sales, finance, legal, HR, and IT over the next 18 months, including 1,400 jobs today. These initiatives will reduce the company’s annual operating expense run rate by approximately $1.5 billion and reduce fiscal year 2009 capital expenditures by $700 million.

 

在這個時候,就是和米蟲說再見,讓創意新作法在大公司嶄露頭角的好時機。嘿,地牛翻身,牛轉乾坤,數年才有一回啊!

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Windows 7在CES的Demo

在寬螢幕前用手指頭轉動地球,再用兩指zoom in,彷彿真的到未來了…Virtual Earth類型的應用,滿適合放在國小電腦教室,教小朋友認識地球和不同國家。大螢幕multi-touch除了酷炫之外,導入市場後,第一個能充分發揮價值地方應該是教育領域。

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由於距離Windows 7 public Beta release已經好幾天了,網路很容易找到開箱文和測試報告,週末掃過一遍,正面負面評價都有,但正面評價明顯較負面評價來得多。(當然這有可能只是大家拿到新東西爽度高,驚喜之下寫出來的評論,過一陣子等大家冷靜後應該更能排除bias。) Mobile01這篇Windows7顛覆傳統是我目前看到最中肯詳盡的一篇。

 

話說回來,如果你也裝了Windows 7,衷心希望你遇到Bug時,可以按下bug report,讓Redmond的研發團隊改進問題。(當然可以先用力罵髒話再按沒關係^^”)

 

相關閱讀:Windows 7官方網站Windows 7新功能DemoWindows 7 Beta安裝說明Windows 7官方開發部落格(中文)Windows 7 官方Team BlogWindows 7 Beta下載 (如果還開放的話)

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當年巴菲特怎樣都不想買也不想碰電腦,就連比爾蓋茲打算派全Microsoft最正的女生去教他操作,並保證過程一定會「相當愉快」,巴菲特還是不買單。:D

“Bill started trying to convince me to get a computer. I said, I don’t know what it it’s going to do for me. I don’t care how my stock portfolio is doing every five minutes. And I can do my income taxes in my head. Gates said he would pick out the best-looking gal at Microsoft and send her to teach me how to use the computer. He would make it totally painless and pleasant. I told him, ‘you’ve made me an offer I almost can’t refuse, but I’ll refuse it.’”

- The Snowball, P623

 

有趣的是,最後打動巴菲特用電腦的動機竟是是玩網路橋牌,不玩還好,一玩還整個上癮,好幾年來都用T-bone這個帳號遊走江湖。到底有多入迷呢?這邊有段充分顯示出巴菲特“focus”人格特質的段落:

 

“Before long, Buffett was so engrossed in Internet bridge that nothing could disturb him. When a bat got into the house and flapped around the TV room, banging into the walls and entangling itself in the curtains, Astrid shrieked, ‘Warren, there’s a bat in here!’ Sitting across the room in his frayed terry-cloth bathrobe, staring at his bridge hand, he never move his eyes from the screen as he said, ‘It’s not bothering me any.’ Astrid called the pest-control people and they removed the bat, all without disturbing his bridge game.”

- The Snowball, P 635

 

可別小看“focus”, 這可是世界首富和世界第二首富(當年)認為自己能小有成就的關鍵:

“…at dinner, Bill Gates Sr. posed the question to the table: What factor did people feel was the most important in getting to where they’d gotten in life? And I said, ‘Focus.’ And Bill said the same thing.”

- The Snowball, P 623

 

我相信一般人都有focus在手邊工作的能力,但終其一生,focus在一種理念、一種志向、一種夢想,並努力去實踐,就不是那麼容易了。

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